So what happens if there's a terrible deal at the end of negotiations?

[BlasterBates]

She has ruled out EEA/EFTA and the ECJ, specifically, at the end of the A50 process, so what do you think that leaves? The implementation of an ESTA-like system, most likely. You're seeing EEA, and I'm seeing changes to IT systems. It's interesting that she mentioned IT systems to the Liason Committee, don't you think? Again, we'll see who's right, but my Mystic Meg foo seems to be superior so far.

No I don't see EEA, I see a "bespoke" deal, Switzerland without EFTA

i.e. a highly complicated bilateral deal or set of deals

and whilst getting there a very unpopular "phased implementation" which includes the freedom of movement.

[GB9]

Meanwhile in Deutschland today ...



Gott in himmel. Wir sind gef*ckt

Don't be bringing facts into this. Particularly anti EU ones!

[jamesbrown]

+1

It's much better than getting full visa, however that ain't visa waiver thing, this is effectively "visa light", you need to do it well in advance also, so nevermind buying the morning cheap tickets to visit Paris and going there same day...

If it works anything like ESTA, it will have a period of validity but, in any case, this would have the same scope as ESTA, i.e. pleasure and "non-productive" work (everyone here will be familiar with that ). The idea being to implement something that is incredibly cheap and simple for precisely the reason you mention (travel in this category is often last-minute). Obviously, employment visas are a completely different scenario and they will be nothing like a visa-waiver. That would also require updates to IT systems, but I'd guess they will want to use a similar approach to non-EU citizens.

[AtW]

If it works anything like ESTA, it will have a period of validity but, in any case, this would have the same scope as ESTA, i.e. pleasure and "non-productive" work (everyone here will be familiar with that ). The idea being to implement something that is incredibly cheap and simple for precisely the reason you mention (travel in this category is often last-minute). Obviously, employment visas are a completely different scenario and they will be nothing like a visa-waiver. That would also require updates to IT systems, but I'd guess they will want to use a similar approach to non-EU citizens.

The biggest problem with ESTA is that you have to submit this info 48 hours in advance, with 72 hours being recommended or you get fooked on the border far away from home.

EU _WILL_ introduce their own version of ESTA - this is necessary because a number of countries like Turkey, Ukraine will gain visa-free access, to they need some kind of "visa light" to get advance info, it also makes sense to make it parity for USA, and UK will just drop into this basket by virtue of being out of the system.

[jamesbrown]

No I don't see EEA, I see a "bespoke" deal, Switzerland without EFTA

i.e. a highly complicated bilateral deal or set of deals

and whilst getting there a very unpopular "phased implementation" which includes the freedom of movement.

I see neither of those things, so I guess we're in exact disagreement, as usual. Switzerland (with or without EFTA) is the absolute last thing the EU would want. The recent problems in Switzerland have arisen precisely because both sides have, at various points, tried to eliminate the complexity by aggregating the various individual bilateral accords and having them live or die together. First, the EU did this to ward off any cherry-picking (guillotine proviso). Then the Swiss returned the favour when the EU wanted specific accords on tax and fraud in the early 2000s and the Swiss insisted these were rolled up with all sorts of other crap. It has basically been an uncomfortable arrangement from the beginning, as illustrated with the recent stand-off on FoM.

[jamesbrown]

The biggest problem with ESTA is that you have to submit this info 48 hours in advance, with 72 hours being recommended or you get fooked on the border far away from home.

EU _WILL_ introduce their own version of ESTA - this is necessary because a number of countries like Turkey, Ukraine will gain visa-free access, to they need some kind of "visa light" to get advance info, it also makes sense to make it parity for USA, and UK will just drop into this basket by virtue of being out of the system.

You can do it as far in advance as you want and it lasts for two years. Surely, if there's the slightest chance you might travel to the US in the next couple of years, you'd arrange it now (5 mins and $14)? I guess some people are never satisfied ...but it's child-like in its simplicity. Sure, the EU will need to reciprocate, since we'll be outside it.

[BlasterBates]

I see neither of those things, so I guess we're in exact disagreement, as usual. Switzerland (with or without EFTA) is the absolute last thing the EU would want. The recent problems in Switzerland have arisen precisely because both sides have, at various points, tried to eliminate the complexity by aggregating the various individual bilateral accords and having them live or die together. First, the EU did this to ward off any cherry-picking (guillotine proviso). Then the Swiss returned the favour when the EU wanted specific accords on tax and fraud in the early 2000s and the Swiss insisted these were rolled up with all sorts of other crap. It has basically been an uncomfortable arrangement from the beginning, as illustrated with the recent stand-off on FoM.

...and resembles exactly what May is after.



May is pretty clear that she accepts that immigration controls might not be introduced until after the transitionary period.

[jamesbrown]

...and resembles exactly what May is after.



May is pretty clear that she accepts that immigration controls might not be introduced until after the transitionary period.

She's pretty clear that she accepts some time for the implementation of IT systems, during that period while the primacy of the ECJ has ended. Anyway, it seems to me that, where you go wrong, systematically, is with your assumption that this is being driven by UK interests; when it comes to an implementation period, it will be very much driven by what the EU wants. And it ain't what you describe.

[AtW]

You can do it as far in advance as you want and it lasts for two years. Surely, if there's the slightest chance you might travel to the US in the next couple of years, you'd arrange it now (5 mins and $14)? I guess some people are never satisfied ...but it's child-like in its simplicity. Sure, the EU will need to reciprocate, since we'll be outside it.

I had it done last year and probably won't do it every again, don't like this collection of data including fingerprints, makes me feel like criminal - par for the course for any visa applicant these days, but fook this tulip, I don't have to do it, I like it in UK and I am afraid of airplane travel anyway

[AtW]

your assumption that this is being driven by UK interests

This is ALL driven by May's personal interests, period.