Reply to: So what happens if there's a terrible deal at the end of negotiations?

[GB9]

This is ALL driven by May's personal interests, period.

Unplug your keyboard and stop making an idiot of yourself.

There was a Swiss mp on the radio yesterday morning talking about the problems they have with the vote to control their borders vs access to the single market. She was keen to join the negotiations with the UK to both get an agreement on controlling migration and access to the single market. Seems we're not on our own after all. I'm sure the EU is aware of this.

[AtW]

Well, if you will insist on looking like one...

It's cool bro

[Mordac]

I had it done last year and probably won't do it every again, don't like this collection of data including fingerprints, makes me feel like criminal - par for the course for any visa applicant these days, but fook this tulip, I don't have to do it, I like it in UK and I am afraid of airplane travel anyway

Well, if you will insist on looking like one...

[BlasterBates]

She's pretty clear that she accepts some time for the implementation of IT systems, during that period while the primacy of the ECJ has ended. Anyway, it seems to me that, where you go wrong, systematically, is with your assumption that this is being driven by UK interests; when it comes to an implementation period, it will be very much driven by what the EU wants. And it ain't what you describe.

Not just the implementation of IT systems

There is a little matter of hammering out a highly complex new trading arrangement, and the UK has to negotiate at least a few trade deals.

The EU does want a transitionary deal, but on their terms and May will have no choice but to accept.

[AtW]

your assumption that this is being driven by UK interests

This is ALL driven by May's personal interests, period.

[AtW]

You can do it as far in advance as you want and it lasts for two years. Surely, if there's the slightest chance you might travel to the US in the next couple of years, you'd arrange it now (5 mins and $14)? I guess some people are never satisfied ...but it's child-like in its simplicity. Sure, the EU will need to reciprocate, since we'll be outside it.

I had it done last year and probably won't do it every again, don't like this collection of data including fingerprints, makes me feel like criminal - par for the course for any visa applicant these days, but fook this tulip, I don't have to do it, I like it in UK and I am afraid of airplane travel anyway

[jamesbrown]

...and resembles exactly what May is after.



May is pretty clear that she accepts that immigration controls might not be introduced until after the transitionary period.

She's pretty clear that she accepts some time for the implementation of IT systems, during that period while the primacy of the ECJ has ended. Anyway, it seems to me that, where you go wrong, systematically, is with your assumption that this is being driven by UK interests; when it comes to an implementation period, it will be very much driven by what the EU wants. And it ain't what you describe.

[BlasterBates]

I see neither of those things, so I guess we're in exact disagreement, as usual. Switzerland (with or without EFTA) is the absolute last thing the EU would want. The recent problems in Switzerland have arisen precisely because both sides have, at various points, tried to eliminate the complexity by aggregating the various individual bilateral accords and having them live or die together. First, the EU did this to ward off any cherry-picking (guillotine proviso). Then the Swiss returned the favour when the EU wanted specific accords on tax and fraud in the early 2000s and the Swiss insisted these were rolled up with all sorts of other crap. It has basically been an uncomfortable arrangement from the beginning, as illustrated with the recent stand-off on FoM.

...and resembles exactly what May is after.



May is pretty clear that she accepts that immigration controls might not be introduced until after the transitionary period.

[jamesbrown]

The biggest problem with ESTA is that you have to submit this info 48 hours in advance, with 72 hours being recommended or you get fooked on the border far away from home.

EU _WILL_ introduce their own version of ESTA - this is necessary because a number of countries like Turkey, Ukraine will gain visa-free access, to they need some kind of "visa light" to get advance info, it also makes sense to make it parity for USA, and UK will just drop into this basket by virtue of being out of the system.

You can do it as far in advance as you want and it lasts for two years. Surely, if there's the slightest chance you might travel to the US in the next couple of years, you'd arrange it now (5 mins and $14)? I guess some people are never satisfied ...but it's child-like in its simplicity. Sure, the EU will need to reciprocate, since we'll be outside it.

[jamesbrown]

No I don't see EEA, I see a "bespoke" deal, Switzerland without EFTA

i.e. a highly complicated bilateral deal or set of deals

and whilst getting there a very unpopular "phased implementation" which includes the freedom of movement.

I see neither of those things, so I guess we're in exact disagreement, as usual. Switzerland (with or without EFTA) is the absolute last thing the EU would want. The recent problems in Switzerland have arisen precisely because both sides have, at various points, tried to eliminate the complexity by aggregating the various individual bilateral accords and having them live or die together. First, the EU did this to ward off any cherry-picking (guillotine proviso). Then the Swiss returned the favour when the EU wanted specific accords on tax and fraud in the early 2000s and the Swiss insisted these were rolled up with all sorts of other crap. It has basically been an uncomfortable arrangement from the beginning, as illustrated with the recent stand-off on FoM.

[AtW]

If it works anything like ESTA, it will have a period of validity but, in any case, this would have the same scope as ESTA, i.e. pleasure and "non-productive" work (everyone here will be familiar with that ). The idea being to implement something that is incredibly cheap and simple for precisely the reason you mention (travel in this category is often last-minute). Obviously, employment visas are a completely different scenario and they will be nothing like a visa-waiver. That would also require updates to IT systems, but I'd guess they will want to use a similar approach to non-EU citizens.

The biggest problem with ESTA is that you have to submit this info 48 hours in advance, with 72 hours being recommended or you get fooked on the border far away from home.

EU _WILL_ introduce their own version of ESTA - this is necessary because a number of countries like Turkey, Ukraine will gain visa-free access, to they need some kind of "visa light" to get advance info, it also makes sense to make it parity for USA, and UK will just drop into this basket by virtue of being out of the system.

[jamesbrown]

+1

It's much better than getting full visa, however that ain't visa waiver thing, this is effectively "visa light", you need to do it well in advance also, so nevermind buying the morning cheap tickets to visit Paris and going there same day...

If it works anything like ESTA, it will have a period of validity but, in any case, this would have the same scope as ESTA, i.e. pleasure and "non-productive" work (everyone here will be familiar with that ). The idea being to implement something that is incredibly cheap and simple for precisely the reason you mention (travel in this category is often last-minute). Obviously, employment visas are a completely different scenario and they will be nothing like a visa-waiver. That would also require updates to IT systems, but I'd guess they will want to use a similar approach to non-EU citizens.

[GB9]

Meanwhile in Deutschland today ...



Gott in himmel. Wir sind gef*ckt

Don't be bringing facts into this. Particularly anti EU ones!

[BlasterBates]

She has ruled out EEA/EFTA and the ECJ, specifically, at the end of the A50 process, so what do you think that leaves? The implementation of an ESTA-like system, most likely. You're seeing EEA, and I'm seeing changes to IT systems. It's interesting that she mentioned IT systems to the Liason Committee, don't you think? Again, we'll see who's right, but my Mystic Meg foo seems to be superior so far.

No I don't see EEA, I see a "bespoke" deal, Switzerland without EFTA

i.e. a highly complicated bilateral deal or set of deals

and whilst getting there a very unpopular "phased implementation" which includes the freedom of movement.

[AtW]

Sure, in the same way that ESTA completely killed travel to the US, what with it being so horrendously complicated and prohibitively expensive.

+1

It's much better than getting full visa, however that ain't visa waiver thing, this is effectively "visa light", you need to do it well in advance also, so nevermind buying the morning cheap tickets to visit Paris and going there same day...