Brexit, Engxit, Wexit or Scexit?

[jamesbrown]

You're referring to the Independent article that was very weak, it was pretty much rubbished on the "what's in the press" shows

May also turned down flatly the points system. The idea there is some brilliant alternative is laughable. She turned it down because she knows she'll be offering "rubber stamped" work visas pretty much on demand

If the UK pays into the budget and rubber stamps works visas, there will be a deal, and that is exactly where it is going

Independent? Is that still a newspaper? No, I was referring to the headlines in the FT (about Denmark!) and the Guardian. The Independent didn't have an original story on this. Work visas are completely incompatible with freedom of movement. The only thing the EU will entertain, in terms of migration, is an EU-wide solution, of which the UK could become a part. To paraphrase Tusk and others, there's either a hard brexit or no brexit. They've been very, very, clear about a common arrangement on migration or no arrangement. Also, May doesn't seem to be courting them too carefully. According to press reports today, she wants the UK to have the lowest corporation tax rates in the G20. Goodness, they won't be happy about that.

[BlasterBates]

Independent? Is that still a newspaper? No, I was referring to the headlines in the FT (about Denmark!) and the Guardian. The Independent didn't have an original story on this. Work visas are completely incompatible with freedom of movement. The only thing the EU will entertain, in terms of migration, is an EU-wide solution, of which the UK could become a part. To paraphrase Tusk and others, there's either a hard brexit or no brexit. They've been very, very, clear about a common arrangement on migration or no arrangement. Also, May doesn't seem to be courting them too carefully. According to press reports today, she wants the UK to have the lowest corporation tax rates in the G20. Goodness, they won't be happy about that.

Low tax rates isn't an impediment otherwise there would be no agreement with Switzerland and as anyone knows Switzerland issues work permits to all EU citizens, so obviously the EU is relaxed. I don't think they'll be too fussed whether it's called a work visa or a work permit.

Its obvious that the UK government has set the scene to be able to cave in without renaging on their "red lines"

The red lines-

The European Court of Justice - The Tory conference cheered in jubilation at this, but of course there are no EU non-members subject to the European Court of Justice, thats pretty much a given even with the softest of Brexits

Control of immigration - An automatic visa would satisfy that.

Do their own trade deals - so does Switzerland, they'll still need to be ratified by the EU because the UK will probably still be partially in the customs Union

Not subject to EU budget - of course not, neither is Switzerland or Norway, they'll just make a "contribution"

The deal won't be Norway or Switzerland, just very very similar

[BlasterBates]

hmm....

Looks like there will be a two pronged approach to the government's EU cave in

One alternative is an interim deal which basically enables them to do a very simple cave in, where they can agree to all the EU's demands without any concessions whatosever:

May Acknowledges Business Warning Over Brexit ‘Cliff Edge’ - Bloomberg

The second prong will be to spend a decade negotiating a new very complicated deal where there is a slim chance of a few token concessions so that they can at least avoid total humiliation.

[minestrone]

You're referring to the Independent article that was very weak, it was pretty much rubbished on the "what's in the press" shows

May also turned down flatly the points system. The idea there is some brilliant alternative is laughable. She turned it down because she knows she'll be offering "rubber stamped" work visas pretty much on demand

If the UK pays into the budget and rubber stamps works visas, there will be a deal, and that is exactly where it is going

What did Prime Minster May turn down?

[jamesbrown]

You seem to be very confused about what you're anticipating. You also seem to be completely detached from the realpolitik in the U.K. I wonder why . The mechanism by which May achieves a dramatic reduction in immigration is neither here nor there. The reality is that she cannot enter the next election without substantial progress towards this reduction, given the positioning of the Tory grassroots. You seem to keep forgetting how the Tories got into this situation. The "swivel-eyed loons" in Parliament are the thin end of a very large wedge. All the rhetoric is currently pointing towards a Brexit to cut diamonds. Both sides are expecting the other to cave. That always ends well.

[BlasterBates]

You seem to be very confused about what you're anticipating. You also seem to be completely detached from the realpolitik in the U.K. I wonder why . The mechanism by which May achieves a dramatic reduction in immigration is neither here nor there. The reality is that she cannot enter the next election without substantial progress towards this reduction, given the positioning of the Tory grassroots. You seem to keep forgetting how the Tories got into this situation. The "swivel-eyed loons" in Parliament are the thin end of a very large wedge. All the rhetoric is currently pointing towards a Brexit to cut diamonds. Both sides are expecting the other to cave. That always ends well.

You don't seriously think she will achieve that by the next election ?

250,000 people leave the workforce every year to retire and are not replaced. Do you honestly believe the UK with it's huge debts can seriously afford to lose 250 thousand workers each year ?

Out of interest I checked my home town, where,as in the rest of the country the population has grown a few percent over the last 15 20 years or so. Guess what....the working population hasn't changed, the growth in the town's population is purely an increase in the number of pensioners. The town voted pretty strongly in favour of Brexit, but if they get their way, the pensioners will multiply and the working population will dwindle.

Japan allows that to happen and is sitting on debt with over 200% of it's GDP. However unlike the UK, Japan can afford it because it has so much overseas investment funding it...

Economic reality will screw up the government's plan to cut immigration. just like it did since 2010

[DodgyAgent]

You don't seriously think she will achieve that by the next election ?

250,000 people leave the workforce every year to retire and are not replaced. Do you honestly believe the UK with it's huge debts can seriously afford to lose 250 thousand workers each year ?

Out of interest I checked my home town, where,as in the rest of the country the population has grown a few percent over the last 15 20 years or so. Guess what....the working population hasn't changed, the growth in the town's population is purely an increase in the number of pensioners. The town voted pretty strongly in favour of Brexit, but if they get their way, the pensioners will multiply and the working population will dwindle.

Japan allows that to happen and is sitting on debt with over 200% of it's GDP. However unlike the UK, Japan can afford it because it has so much overseas investment funding it...

Economic reality will screw up the government's plan to cut immigration. just like it did since 2010

Pensioners will now retire to eastern Europe

[vetran]

You don't seriously think she will achieve that by the next election ?

250,000 people leave the workforce every year to retire and are not replaced. Do you honestly believe the UK with it's huge debts can seriously afford to lose 250 thousand workers each year ?

Out of interest I checked my home town, where,as in the rest of the country the population has grown a few percent over the last 15 20 years or so. Guess what....the working population hasn't changed, the growth in the town's population is purely an increase in the number of pensioners. The town voted pretty strongly in favour of Brexit, but if they get their way, the pensioners will multiply and the working population will dwindle.

Japan allows that to happen and is sitting on debt with over 200% of it's GDP. However unlike the UK, Japan can afford it because it has so much overseas investment funding it...

Economic reality will screw up the government's plan to cut immigration. just like it did since 2010

The workforce will shrink as more jobs become obsolete.

Workers will work longer My Father & Father in law were both working in their mid seventies through choice.

[DodgyAgent]

The workforce will shrink as more jobs become obsolete.

Workers will work longer My Father & Father in law were both working in their mid seventies through choice.

I will still be "earning" margins into my 70s

[shaunbhoy]

I will still be "earning" margins into my 70s

Yes, but you will have forgotten what you did with them.