[Merged]Brexit good news

[The_Equalizer]

I wouldn't want to derail the official Brexit good news thread. There's only one of these and I'm sure there'll be an increasing volume of excellent news coming our way.

I detect an element of you wanting to be proved right at any cost. What if it's not anywhere near as bad you hope - sorry - I mean expect?

[GB9]

An increase in tourism is welcome. It is a result of a lower value of GBP. GBP is lower because of weakness and uncertainty in the economy caused by the EU referendum result. So let's be cheered by the increase in tourism, but let's not kid ourselves that it's a sign of strength - it is the opposite.

It's like being pleased you were attacked in the street, because your wounds have clotted nicely and the an ambulance has arrived.

But we have been told for a while that our currency is overvalued, nit just for tourism but also for exporting.

Numerous countries try to devalue e.g. Japan.

Yes, it means buying from abroad is more expensive, however, we will start to rebalance what we buy accordingly.

The percentage drop in the value of Sterling over the last 10 years significantly overshadows the 9% drop since the vote. Against the Euro it is nearer 6%.

It's also more a representation of rate of return on depositing with a central bank.

[Old Greg]

But we have been told for a while that our currency is overvalued, nit just for tourism but also for exporting.

Numerous countries try to devalue e.g. Japan.

Yes, it means buying from abroad is more expensive, however, we will start to rebalance what we buy accordingly.

The percentage drop in the value of Sterling over the last 10 years significantly overshadows the 9% drop since the vote. Against the Euro it is nearer 6%.

It's also more a representation of rate of return on depositing with a central bank.

1. Do you get the significance of rate of change, as opposed to quantum of change? Sudden changes mean that there is a need to adjust very rapidly, e.g. manufacturers who import components.

2. Do you not see that the drop in GBP is a sign of weakness. See the sudden drops in July output in the manufacturing, construction and services sector, which you conveniently ignore.

[CretinWatcher]

I detect an element of you wanting to be proved right at any cost. What if it's not anywhere near as bad you hope - sorry - I mean expect?

I'd love to be proved wrong, but the basic facts as discussed ad nauseum on this forum don't support a good outcome for the country as a whole.
To be honest I don't expect immediate economic armageddon, more an accelerated decline into economic mediocrity over the medium term. We'll only see the effects in 5 years in, for example, a permanently raised unemployment rate.
Ironically this will affect the 52% much more than the 48%
But sticking to the theme of this thread, on a personal level Brexit is very good for me - I transferred a large pot out of sterling just before June 23rd, the missus is on the Brexit gravy train, my skills are in demand outside the UK.

[CretinWatcher]

Yes, it means buying from abroad is more expensive, however, we will start to rebalance what we buy accordingly.
.

How would we do that? Do you think your average chav is going to forego his plasma TV because its 200 squid more?
Or do you think the average exec is going to forego his BMW because its 3000 quid more?
Nope, all that'll happen is that our record current a/c deficit wil increase even more.
I wonder at what point it will become unsustainable.
Still this is the good news thread, so let's look on the bright side: Britains current account deficit is roaring ahead of the competition They're not even close.

[The_Equalizer]

How would we do that? Do you think your average chav is going to forego his plasma TV because its 200 squid more?
Or do you think the average exec is going to forego his BMW because its 3000 quid more?
Nope, all that'll happen is that our record current a/c deficit wil increase even more.
I wonder at what point it will become unsustainable.
Still this is the good news thread, so let's look on the bright side: Britains current account deficit is roaring ahead of the competition They're not even close.

I would probably guess that the average 'chav' would avoid paying the extra 200 pounds. And the exec would go for a cheaper car. People adapt their behaviour accordingly.

How about an case where houses drop by, say, 30% and relative incomes by 15%. Would the average person be better off, or worse? For society as a whole it might well be very good. There's a whole swath of people locked out of affordable housing. I'd suggest a return to something similar to the mid-1990s would be far better.

By the way, how many chavs do you know?

[CretinWatcher]

I would probably guess that the average 'chav' would avoid paying the extra 200 pounds. And the exec would go for a cheaper car. People adapt their behaviour accordingly.

How about an case where houses drop by, say, 30% and relative incomes by 15%. Would the average person be better off, or worse? For society as a whole it might well be very good. There's a whole swath of people locked out of affordable housing. I'd suggest a return to something similar to the mid-1990s would be far better.

By the way, how many chavs do you know?

I know more chavs than you may think. I also know plenty of people at the other end of the spectrum. You wouldn't believe me if I told you who

House prices aren't going to drop by 30% - if they did it would be because of a massive recession and in that case your 15% drop in income would be moot - for many people the drop in income would be 100%, no one would be lending etc. Last time that happened was 1990-1992 and it was rough, this time it would be much, much worse because debt is many multiples higher + the central bank has no options as it shot its load in 2008 (interest rates are rock bottom, govt debt is approaching 100% of GDP). So we would be looking at a depression scenario - i.e. the economic armageddon I don't expect.

BTW House prices are excessive all over the world, if you think they are unaffordable here take note that its the same in Canada, Australia, major cities in the US, even India (try the average income to house price ratio there for some perspective).

I think what will happen here is the gradual hollowing out of the economy as companies realise its not worth investing in in a small market. Much better to invest in Poland, where the educational level is better on average, no minimum wage, access to 550 million.

But hey lets look at the bright side: I was in Portugal on hols, which is considered a basket case, but the reaturants were full, there were plenty of new BMWS and Mercs, so for some life is still good.

[original PM]

I know more chavs than you may think. I also know plenty of people at the other end of the spectrum. You wouldn't believe me if / blah

But hey lets look at the bright side: I was in Portugal on hols, which is considered a basket case, but the reaturants were full, there were plenty of new BMWS and Mercs, so for some life is still good.

Yes for a few people it is

for many it is not

which if you recall was why we felt a vote to remain was a fook the poor vote

[CretinWatcher]

Yes for a few people it is

for many it is not

which if you recall was why we felt a vote to remain was a fook the poor vote

Yeah, the vote to leave is really going to help the poor
Where did you get your degree in Astrophysics, South Doncaster Community College?

[NotAllThere]

...no one would be lending etc. Last time that happened was 1990-1992 and it was rough..

Really? I got a 95% mortgage in 1991, and 100% mortgages were available (massively expensive though!). Though the multiple was 3.5, and I was borrowing less than twice my salary.