[Merged]Brexit stuff

[shaunbhoy]

That's terrible news. The more the pound sinks, the more competitive the UK is!

Euro 'house of cards' to collapse, warns ECB prophet

[Old Greg]

Whatever be thankful because the report is what is holding up the pound.

That's terrible news. The more the pound sinks, the more competitive the UK is!

[BlasterBates]

So last week it was 9.5% off GDP by 2030 and today it's 4.5%. And that doesn't include growth from other trading partners.

If they keep going we'll be in profit soon.

Whatever be thankful because the report is what is holding up the pound.

[GB9]

The Customs Unions is the key decision:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-customs-union

That is the crucial decision that will determine whether Brexit is hard or soft, and it will be decided before the government goes into the negotiations.

It's going to be a tough one.

So last week it was 9.5% off GDP by 2030 and today it's 4.5%. And that doesn't include growth from other trading partners.

If they keep going we'll be in profit soon.

[BlasterBates]

The Customs Unions is the key decision:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-customs-union

That is the crucial decision that will determine whether Brexit is hard or soft, and it will be decided before the government goes into the negotiations.

It's going to be a tough one.

[sirja]

Yeah, I was quite surprised to read that too

It certainly presents the challenge, and there was always going to be an economic cost, to be offset to an unclear degree and on an uncertain timeframe. However, there's literally no point in going through this to end up with EEA. I'd rather have full EU membership than EEA. Full Brexit or nothing AFAIC. No signs yet that May is going to bottle it though (she definitely won't last if she does).

Fully agree with everything you've said.

[vetran]

When you say "Actually it's not being held up by Belgium", are you 100% sure? Are you saying that this, Belgian 'Non' blocks EU approval of Canada trade deal has been resolved? If it has then clearly Belgium is onside and the deal will be sealed. I've no doubt they will get there soon, just seems we are waiting on them. Hence my comment. Obviously.

Don't confuse bremoaners with facts..

[GB9]

Yeah, I was quite surprised to read that too

It certainly presents the challenge, and there was always going to be an economic cost, to be offset to an unclear degree and on an uncertain timeframe. However, there's literally no point in going through this to end up with EEA. I'd rather have full EU membership than EEA. Full Brexit or nothing AFAIC. No signs yet that May is going to bottle it though (she definitely won't last if she does).

I'm not. The Telegraph has a tendency to confront the issue. We know what we want and contrary to what a load of whingers would have you believe, we appreciate the difficulties.

The article laid them out well, although there were a couple of assumptions in there that I don't fully buy in to e.g. "The WTO itself has warned that will required “years” of negotiations to fix a deal with the 161 other members and will impose additional tariffs on imports that will cost British consumers £9bn, while British exporters would pay a further £5.5bn in tariffs on their merchandise."

Assumption is that we continue to buy what we do now, but with tariffs. That just won't happen. The figures presume a double whammy whereby we get hit on the way out although fortunately offset by currency devaluation) but we also get hit inwards. Remember, we get money inwards from tariffs.

[GB9]

Actually it's not being held up by Belgium, the Council of the EU (*) has to ratify it and then it can be provisionally applied in areas where the governments of EU Member States deem the EU to have responsibility. Then the national parliaments of the EU Member States would then also need to ratify CETA for the areas which fall under their responsibility to take effect.

(* - this consists of government ministers from each EU country who meet to discuss, amend and adopt laws, and coordinate policies)

When you say "Actually it's not being held up by Belgium", are you 100% sure? Are you saying that this, Belgian 'Non' blocks EU approval of Canada trade deal has been resolved? If it has then clearly Belgium is onside and the deal will be sealed. I've no doubt they will get there soon, just seems we are waiting on them. Hence my comment. Obviously.

Difficult to know exactly how much of Belgium we are waiting for though. Commenting on the vote, Deputy Chairman of the Committee on International Trade and Green trade spokesperson Yannick Jadot MEP (pictured) said: “It would now be very difficult to sign the agreement at the upcoming EU-Canada summit. The uncertainty of the future of CETA is a victory for all the citizens who have campaigned against it, alongside civil society and environmental elected representatives.

“Demystifying CETA and mobilizing against it have started to pay off. Yesterday, the German Constitutional Court placed strict conditions on the signing of CETA by Germany. Today, the Walloon Parliament has followed the two other Belgian regional parliaments in affirming its opposition to CETA, paving the way for a postponement of the signing of the agreement.”


Indeed the more I read the more I wonder if they will sign this week. "I will not give powers to the federal government, and Belgium will not sign CETA on October 18," Paul Magnette, Wallonia’s leader, told the regional parliament.

Still hoping for this week though.

All thing in consideration, I assume you agree with me that the EU Commission recommended that the EU Council ratify the deal. Obviously.

[jamesbrown]

This is a very balanced and well researched piece on the UK's position and options. Quite surprised to see such a balanced piece in the Torygraph.

Analysis: Great Britain can 'go global' with 'Hard Brexit' but what will be the cost?

Yeah, I was quite surprised to read that too

It certainly presents the challenge, and there was always going to be an economic cost, to be offset to an unclear degree and on an uncertain timeframe. However, there's literally no point in going through this to end up with EEA. I'd rather have full EU membership than EEA. Full Brexit or nothing AFAIC. No signs yet that May is going to bottle it though (she definitely won't last if she does).