[Merged]Brexit stuff

[Platypus]

I wonder how many immigrants Luxembourg has taken in, and how they'd feel if there were more.

The Grand Duchy has volunteered to take in about 400 refugees in the next couple of years — a drop in the ocean in the context of the hundreds of thousands of people flowing into Austria and Germany this month, but on a per-capita basis one of the highest intakes in Europe. Pascal Reyntjens at the International Organization of Migration described its efforts as “amazing.”

The country of 550,000 people was already struggling to accommodate migrants from the Balkans. Then the latest wave began arriving from trouble spots like Syria and Eritrea.

Well maybe I've just answered my own question

[GB9]

The GDP of the EU once the UK has left is $17 trillion
THe GDP of the UK is $2.5 trillion

So the GDP of the EU without the UK is still pretty damn big, in fact 8 times the size of the UK

Do I agree with BB's figures?

8 × $2.5tr = $20tr

7 x $2.5tr = $17.5tr

So it's not 8 times the size. Or even 7 times the size. A slight flaw I think.

[GB9]

eh, You Brexit it you own it.
It's you guys who want to leave the EU, it's you guys that promised the country that the UK would be in very strong position in any talks with the EU and it's you guys that said we should not listen to experts (Quite Ironic that Davies is now running around asking experts for their views). So it's for you Brexiters to go and find out the potential impacts of your folly.

I think that's the detail DD is asking for. I thought from your posts and attitude that you knew the answer though. Clearly you don't.

[GB9]

Would a car in the UK still be as cheap as one imported with tariffs? I mean, where do the majority of the raw materials used in the building of a car come from? I suspect most of them come from outside of the UK and those from the EU will then have a tariff and those from outside of the EU would be cheaper than home grown products thus not providing much sustenance to local industries...

Materials are the biggest cost of car manufacture followed by labour.

So yes, if engines were brought in from e.g. Germany then there would be tariffs on those but not the rest. The overall cost would be less.

There are still a large number of different vehicles produced in the UK, even if owned overseas. So still plenty of choice. Imports would fall.

[original PM]

I guess the Brexiters will simply say this is is just more 'Project Fear'.

..The British Chamber of Commerce( Sirja: That group of Brit hatting lefties) said Monday it now expects a sharp slowdown in growth before 2019, and that could leave the economy £43.8 billion ($58.4 billion) smaller than it previously anticipated. The group represents about 92,000 U.K. businesses.

In chopping down its estimates, the BCC now foresees gross domestic product expanding by a 1.8% rate this year, compared with its previous estimate of 2.2%. The estimate for 2017 has been pulled to 1% from 2.3%. For 2018, the rate should come in at 1.8%, but still slower than the BCC’s previous forecast of 2.4%.(Sirja: There are some numbers for you GB9)

This was the first economic forecast the BCC has issued since the U.K. voted to leave the European Union in a June 23 referendum.

“While the longer-term outlook for the U.K. economy is highly uncertain the risks are on balance tilted to the downside, with the deep-rooted structural issues, such the size of the U.K.’s current account deficit, leaving the U.K. increasingly exposed to economic shocks,” said Suren Thiru, BCC’s head of economics, in a statement.

The U.K. government has yet to trigger Article 50, which will kick off the start of formal talks with the EU about the terms of the U.K.’s exit from the bloc, or Brexit.

A decline in spending by consumers and a large fall in investment were the main drivers behind the BCC’s downgrades.

“Our forecast suggests that the U.K. is likely to avoid a recession, but with the health warning that businesses are still digesting the result of June’s EU referendum and the challenges and opportunities to come,” said Adam Marshall, acting director general of the BCC.

Given that none of these people have managed to foresee any recent dips and rises in the market with any accuracy why do we think this piece of writing is any different?

Do they have a new improved crystal ball?

[scooterscot]

They had their chance but bottled it, it's time to move on Scooter after all you're out in Germany aren't you? That's how much you love your country

I think the response is the UK government made it impossible for me to stay at home. Poor salary, expensive cost of living yadda yadda. Life is to short.

[GB9]

I guess the Brexiters will simply say this is is just more 'Project Fear'.

..The British Chamber of Commerce( Sirja: That group of Brit hatting lefties) said Monday it now expects a sharp slowdown in growth before 2019, and that could leave the economy £43.8 billion ($58.4 billion) smaller than it previously anticipated. The group represents about 92,000 U.K. businesses.

In chopping down its estimates, the BCC now foresees gross domestic product expanding by a 1.8% rate this year, compared with its previous estimate of 2.2%. The estimate for 2017 has been pulled to 1% from 2.3%. For 2018, the rate should come in at 1.8%, but still slower than the BCC’s previous forecast of 2.4%.(Sirja: There are some numbers for you GB9)

This was the first economic forecast the BCC has issued since the U.K. voted to leave the European Union in a June 23 referendum.

“While the longer-term outlook for the U.K. economy is highly uncertain the risks are on balance tilted to the downside, with the deep-rooted structural issues, such the size of the U.K.’s current account deficit, leaving the U.K. increasingly exposed to economic shocks,” said Suren Thiru, BCC’s head of economics, in a statement.

The U.K. government has yet to trigger Article 50, which will kick off the start of formal talks with the EU about the terms of the U.K.’s exit from the bloc, or Brexit.

A decline in spending by consumers and a large fall in investment were the main drivers behind the BCC’s downgrades.

“Our forecast suggests that the U.K. is likely to avoid a recession, but with the health warning that businesses are still digesting the result of June’s EU referendum and the challenges and opportunities to come,” said Adam Marshall, acting director general of the BCC.

So they say what we expected. A slowdown.

I was after your numbers, not theirs.

[The Spartan]

Definitely not a bad thing if we import less given the size of the trade deficit

[scooterscot]

Definitely not a bad thing if we import less given the size of the trade deficit

But we're hooked on Chinese tat and nuclear reactors.

[sasguru]

Well looks like an "interim" deal on the Norway model is being pushed by business, prior to Brexit proper.
Makes sense I guess, since 2 years will certainly not be enough:

Theresa May’s Boutique Brexit Deal Might Take Longer Than Wished - Bloomberg