[Merged]Brexit stuff

[GB9]

Once again you spout the usual Brexiter nonsense. Where have I said anything about the UK needing to be punished? The problem with so many of your Brexit lunatics is that your are totally blind to FACTS. I deal in facts not emotions. The FACT is it will be extremely complicated for the UK to extracted itself from the EU and stand on it's own as an independent trading nation again. Of course it will do it, it has to as that's what the people have voted for, but it's going to be a LOT more painful and complicated than the simplistic nonsense people like you and the other Brexit brainless fringe have been spouting.

How can you not be at least just a bit worried, when a senior Brexiter like DD, is only now asking business what would be the effects of loosing non-tariff trade? Like really dude? You never thought to ask that of business before the vote.

I leave you with this little extract from Richard North. You and your fellow 'Patriots' really should check out his website. He's about the only person talking any sense at the moment, but somehow I get the feeling that fact based write ups are not really your thing.

...If there is one thing on which more clued-up observers agree – as distinct from that strange new "lunatic fringe" alliance between too many senior Tories and Jeremy Corbyn – it is that, on leaving the EU, we must nevertheless remain in the Single Market.

In fact, leaving it would be far more disastrous than is generally realised, because one of the countless technicalities to which the lunatic fringe are oblivious is that in recent years there has been a revolution in the way international trade is organised.

Since the major disruption to trade caused by 9/11, a wholly new system has been emerging, under the auspices of the World Customs Organisation, designed both to improve security and to facilitate global trade.

To prevent crippling delays, cross-border traders sign up to become "Authorised Economic Operators" (AEOs). This enables them among other things to file all their necessary documentation electronically in advance. It also allows for "mutual recognition" between customs authorities, so that goods can simply be waved through at their destinations, instead of causing 20-mile tailbacks while they are inspected.

But Britain is only part of this global system by virtue of its membership of the EU, which as in all other trade matters, signed the agreements on our behalf. This was why that report from the Japanese foreign ministry warned that we cannot afford to drop out of the single market. ...

As I said. He wants hard facts. Not spurious garbage.

If you deal in hard facts then what are they. What would be the impact of a 4% tariff to both the UK and the EU in terms of jobs?

[sasguru]

What would be the impact of a 4% tariff to both the UK and the EU in terms of jobs?

You can't quantify it exactly.
Probably painful but manageable.
What would be the impact of the loss of passporting services?
Probably very severe in terms of the reduction in tax take and hence public services.
I'm sure there'll be an army of economists providing figures soon.

[darmstadt]

David Davies, 11th July:

“I would expect the new Prime Minister on 9 September to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals with all our most favoured trade partners. I would expect that the negotiation phase of most of them to be concluded within between 12 and 24 months,”

David Davies, now:

...“will be the most complex negotiations ever”....“One of the outcomes is the sheer complexity,”...“A whole series of economic exercises, a whole series of diplomatic exercises with at least 30 interlocutors, when you include all the member countries, the European Commission, the Council, the Parliament. We’ve got the legal analysis too, and the lawyer won’t be surprised that we have 180 degree opposite opinions.”

Arse, elbow comes to mind

[GB9]

You can't quantify it exactly.
Probably painful but manageable.
What would be the impact of the loss of passporting services?
Probably very severe in terms of the reduction in tax take and hence public services.
I'm sure there'll be an army of economists providing figures soon.

And this is what DD is asking. What is painful in terms of jobs lost?

If we lose passporting is that definitely 30,000 jobs going to Europe?

I wouldn't trust economists. They don't seem very good so far.

[DodgyAgent]

I've been waiting for months for it to penetrate your thick skull that the UK is a net EXPORTER of services which is 80% of our economy. At some point it may get through, but I wont be holding my breath.

United Kingdom Balance of Trade | 1955-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar

[sasguru]

And this is what DD is asking. .

He's not the brightest man if it only occurred to him to ask that question now, as Darmy has pointed out.
As late as July, he didn't know how the EU worked.
Just like Fox slagging off British business is not the brightest or most helpful thing to do at this time.

Curly, Larry and Moe come to mind.
I wonder what May's strategy is, in putting some very mediocre characters in charge of Brexit?

[NotAllThere]

...I wouldn't trust economists. They don't seem very good so far.

Absolutely. Never trust experts - they don't know anything.

[sasguru]

United Kingdom Balance of Trade | 1955-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar

Did your teachers die young from sheer frustration? What's your point, Sir Duncealot?

[GB9]

He's not the brightest man if it only occurred to him to ask that question now, as Darmy has pointed out.
Just like Fox slagging off British business is not the brightest or most helpful thing to do at this time.

Curly, Larry and Moe come to mind.
I wonder what May's strategy is, in putting some very mediocre characters in charge of Brexit?

These things take time. You need a team in place before you can start in detail. And I suspect he is still surprised to be in the position. After all, the Remain campaign leader said he would stay regardless of the result.

[SueEllen]

And this is what DD is asking. What is painful in terms of jobs lost?

If we lose passporting is that definitely 30,000 jobs going to Europe?

I wouldn't trust economists. They don't seem very good so far.

You know economics has a political influence right?

So economists can spin data and models made from it any way you want if you pay them sufficiently.