Bit of a mixed picture with the polling tonight. ORB headline is +7 for Remain (among voters that are certain to vote), but this is lower than many of the past ORB phone polls and the full sample number is only +2% for Remain, which is one of the best Leave results in the ORB phone polls to date. The difference in the headline originates from Remain voters now overtaking Leave as more likely to vote! Incredible turnaround, probably due to the string of polls last week that put Leave ahead. Turnout is going to be everything in this vote. In other polls, the National Center for Social Research is calling it +6 for Remain (within the margin of error) and YouGov is calling it +2 for Leave (within the margin of error).
So, if the polls are believable (and they may not be
), it's really going down to the wire, with turnout being critical.
If I were to guess, I'd expect a moderate pullback in the markets tomorrow as the jump today was massively overblown and the expectation was probably for a slightly better set of Remain polls; the ORB poll is much less supportive when you dig beneath the headline (because the turnout is likely to swing back to Leave now).
So, if the polls are believable (and they may not be
), it's really going down to the wire, with turnout being critical. If I were to guess, I'd expect a moderate pullback in the markets tomorrow as the jump today was massively overblown and the expectation was probably for a slightly better set of Remain polls; the ORB poll is much less supportive when you dig beneath the headline (because the turnout is likely to swing back to Leave now).
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