Brexiters prepare lube

[diseasex]

Pound Drops as New Brexit Poll Shows ‘Leave’ Camp Taking Lead - Bloomberg

Storm is coming for your arseholes

[Old Greg]

Pound Drops as New Brexit Poll Shows ‘Leave’ Camp Taking Lead - Bloomberg

Storm is coming for your arseholes

I just need to get the timing right for my next booze run to Sainsbury's, Newry.

[diseasex]

I just need to get the timing right for my next booze run to Sainsbury's, Newry.

that booze better not be foreign

[SunnyInHades]

Certainly an air of shift in the recent polls (although we all know after GE2015 they could mean jack) .. 300k net EU immigration figures + abandoned dinghies on Kent beaches probably haven't helped ..

Stay % Leave % Undecided % Date Pollster Sample
44 47 9 May 30, 2016 ICM 2,052
42 45 13 May 29, 2016 ICM 1,004
51 42 7 May 29, 2016 ORB 800
44 45 12 May 25, 2016 BMG Research 1,638
41 41 17 May 24, 2016 YouGov 1,500
44 38 18 May 24, 2016 Survation 1,013
45 45 10 May 22, 2016 ICM 2,003
58 38 4 May 22, 2016 ORB 800
44 40 16 May 19, 2016 Opinium 2,008
52 41 7 May 19, 2016 ComRes 1,000
44 40 12 May 17, 2016 YouGov 1,648
48 35 14 May 16, 2016 Ipsos MORI 1,002
47 39 14 May 15, 2016 ICM 1,002
43 47 10 May 15, 2016 ICM 2,048

[DimPrawn]

Pound Drops as New Brexit Poll Shows ‘Leave’ Camp Taking Lead - Bloomberg

Thank the Lord!

I've got nearly £1m (leveraged) on a massive Pound short position. Was starting to sheet myself....

Private island here I come!

[jamesbrown]

Meh. Fine by me, I mainly export. The Pound will find an appropriate level. Bear in mind, Cable is down 15% from the July 2014 high anyway, and 30% down from the pre-crash peak. Even if there's a Bremain, the Pound is likely to decline in the medium-term, following an initial spike up. Currencies move. Nothing to see here, unless you're "economically illiterate"

[jamesbrown]

Thank the Lord!

I've got nearly £1m (leveraged) on a massive Pound short position. Was starting to sheet myself....

Private island here I come!

I hope. Otherwise

[jamesbrown]

Certainly an air of shift in the recent polls (although we all know after GE2015 they could mean jack) .. 300k net EU immigration figures + abandoned dinghies on Kent beaches probably haven't helped ..

Stay % Leave % Undecided % Date Pollster Sample
44 47 9 May 30, 2016 ICM 2,052
42 45 13 May 29, 2016 ICM 1,004
51 42 7 May 29, 2016 ORB 800
44 45 12 May 25, 2016 BMG Research 1,638
41 41 17 May 24, 2016 YouGov 1,500
44 38 18 May 24, 2016 Survation 1,013
45 45 10 May 22, 2016 ICM 2,003
58 38 4 May 22, 2016 ORB 800
44 40 16 May 19, 2016 Opinium 2,008
52 41 7 May 19, 2016 ComRes 1,000
44 40 12 May 17, 2016 YouGov 1,648
48 35 14 May 16, 2016 Ipsos MORI 1,002
47 39 14 May 15, 2016 ICM 1,002
43 47 10 May 15, 2016 ICM 2,048

The only thing that's vaguely interesting is that one of the recent ICM polls was a phone poll, so I imagine that did it (along with the shift in the ORB poll, but that last one looked pretty illusory anyway). I wonder if ICM were correcting for the educational bias in phone polls identified by YouGov recently. One of the major problems with phone polls is that the response rate is now down to something like 10-15%, so there's an inbuilt sampling bias there, much like the online polls (which are self-selecting to some degree).

Anyway, it's laughable how these pundits interpret a shift within the margin of error. You'd have thought they'd learned their lesson, but they have feck all else to write about.

[OwlHoot]

Pound Drops as New Brexit Poll Shows ‘Leave’ Camp Taking Lead - Bloomberg

Storm is coming for your arseholes

The UK will need tanker loads of KY if Remain win, because shortly after that the EU will start riding us like Red Rum in the Grand National.

[DaveB]

The only thing that's vaguely interesting is that one of the recent ICM polls was a phone poll, so I imagine that did it (along with the shift in the ORB poll, but that last one looked pretty illusory anyway). I wonder if ICM were correcting for the educational bias in phone polls identified by YouGov recently. One of the major problems with phone polls is that the response rate is now down to something like 10-15%, so there's an inbuilt sampling bias there, much like the online polls (which are self-selecting to some degree).

Anyway, it's laughable how these pundits interpret a shift within the margin of error. You'd have thought they'd learned their lesson, but they have feck all else to write about.

That will be the Wetherspoons effect.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...referendum-imf

On Tuesday, it emerged that pub chain JD Wetherspoon has printed 200,000 beer mats bearing what the company’s boss says is a hard-hitting message arguing for the UK to leave the EU.

Natural haunt of the native Brexiter.