IMF warns of dire consequences in the event of a BREXIT

[jamesbrown]

The polls are misleading. They are based mainly on online polls. Telephone polling, which proved more accurate in the general election, shows a comfortable margin for Remain.

EU referendum: All still to play for but not neck and neck « ComRes

However one must be prudent and plan for the worst so I've transferred a nice stash into CHF

As I've posted about before, the Remain vote has a social acceptability bias, which accounts for at least some of the differences between the online and telephone polls. There is no universally accepted case that telephone polling is more accurate. It depends entirely on the context/question. Both the online and telephone polls are subject to sampling errors, but also sampling (methodological) biases, depending on the nature of the question. It's very difficult to know how this will play out, but many academics suspect the unbiased sample is somewhere in between the telephone and online polls, so probably still ahead for the Remain camp.

Everything will depend on turnout, as the Brexiters are consistently more motivated in the polls and, despite what the establishment would like to believe, Project Fear is not yet cutting through. It might as the vote gets nearer. However, as things stand, about 20% of the electorate isn't sure what side Hamface is on, and a third aren't clear about Gidiot. About 50% aren't sure about Korbyn, and 15% think he's for Leave The gap between the political punditry and the reality on the ground is vast. People just aren't that engaged. I concede that this could change as the vote approaches. If there isn't a significant swing for Remain in the two weeks prior to June 23, I'll be properly worried about my punts (but happy, nonetheless ).

[LondonManc]

I have a UBS a/c. I opened it in Zurich last year in person. But I think its possible to do online:

https://www.ubs.com/ch/en/swissbank/...l-account.html

There are plenty of others...

Deflounced already?

[sasguru]

As I've posted about before, the Remain vote has a social acceptability bias, which accounts for at least some of the differences between the online and telephone polls. There is no universally accepted case that telephone polling is more accurate. It depends entirely on the context/question. Both the online and telephone polls are subject to sampling errors, but also sampling (methodological) biases, depending on the nature of the question. It's very difficult to know how this will play out, but many academics suspect the unbiased sample is somewhere in between the telephone and online polls, so probably still ahead for the Remain camp.

Everything will depend on turnout, as the Brexiters are consistently more motivated in the polls and, despite what the establishment would like to believe, Project Fear is not yet cutting through. It might as the vote gets nearer. However, as things stand, about 20% of the electorate isn't sure what side Hamface is on, and a third aren't clear about Gidiot. About 50% aren't sure about Korbyn, and 15% think he's for Leave The gap between the political punditry and the reality on the ground is vast. People just aren't that engaged. I concede that this could change as the vote approaches. If there isn't a significant swing for Remain in the two weeks prior to June 23, I'll be properly worried about my punts (but happy, nonetheless ).

I predict a 5% final lead for Remain (a conservative guesstimate, based on being somewhere between online and phone polls, and discounting the large lead for Remain in phone polls).
If I'm wrong well I've done all I can to ameliorate the impact.

[jamesbrown]

As I've posted about before, the Remain vote has a social acceptability bias, which accounts for at least some of the differences between the online and telephone polls. There is no universally accepted case that telephone polling is more accurate. It depends entirely on the context/question. Both the online and telephone polls are subject to sampling errors, but also sampling (methodological) biases, depending on the nature of the question. It's very difficult to know how this will play out, but many academics suspect the unbiased sample is somewhere in between the telephone and online polls, so probably still ahead for the Remain camp.

Everything will depend on turnout, as the Brexiters are consistently more motivated in the polls and, despite what the establishment would like to believe, Project Fear is not yet cutting through. It might as the vote gets nearer. However, as things stand, about 20% of the electorate isn't sure what side Hamface is on, and a third aren't clear about Gidiot. About 50% aren't sure about Korbyn, and 15% think he's for Leave The gap between the political punditry and the reality on the ground is vast. People just aren't that engaged. I concede that this could change as the vote approaches. If there isn't a significant swing for Remain in the two weeks prior to June 23, I'll be properly worried about my punts (but happy, nonetheless ).

Also, as anecdotal evidence of the above, I dare say that the swing towards Leave in recent months partly represents a narrowing of the gap between telephone and online polls, and not a real swing, but a reduction in the social acceptability bias as the arguments are debated more openly (e.g. immigration). It was interesting to watch Newsnight in Boston a few nights ago where a women in the audience apoligised immediately after referring to immigrants as "immigrant people". A significant fraction of voters for whom immigration is a major issue (and are more likely to vote Leave) do not want to be perceived as small-minded nationalists or even racist, and people like John Major should be ashamed of themselves for promoting that link as a general theme among the ~50% of people that disagree with him.

[diseasex]

People moving their cash abroad to prevent the "impact" and we get pound like this https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts...EUR=X;range=1y

[BlasterBates]

I think I might hedge myself a bit for brexit. Some options or bit currency won't hurt much .

Careful, if Brexit doesn't go through, the pound will shoot up. I think sasguru is correct and we probably won't have a Brexit. I would tend to sit tight unless both the tel. poll and online poll were over 60% in favour of Brexit.

What I would rather recommend i.e. "win-win" buy some shares in a British international company, BP Royal Dutch Shell etc

They will go down after a Brexit as all shares will but you won't be affected by a pound devaluation, as they earn in dollars. In the event of a Bremain you will be up as most British companies will go up as everyone breathes a sigh of relief.

[jamesbrown]

I predict a 5% final lead for Remain (a conservative guesstimate, based on being somewhere between online and phone polls, and discounting the large lead for Remain in phone polls).
If I'm wrong well I've done all I can to ameliorate the impact.

I agree, and in the interests of pedantry, I predict 56/44, with a late swing back to the status quo (possibly as late as June 22), broadly in line with the Indyref. Undecided voters quite often remain undecided, and just opt for the status quo (or don't turn up). However, I'm not nearly as confident about the result as I was when Hamface announced the referendum. Neither campaign is doing particularly well, but I honestly believe that the Bremainers are making a complete hash of Project Fear. Warnings must be credible, otherwise they lose their authority (and, let's face it, Remain is heavily reliant upon that establishment authority).

[jamesbrown]

Careful, if Brexit doesn't go through, the pound will shoot up.

Agreed, you'd be nuts to use currency as your instrument unless you know what you're doing. Take the SNB action last year as a warning of the potential (uncontrolled) losses you could face in a volatile market. No, you'd be better taking a hedged punt; for example, on big UK banks with international exposure (e.g. Barclays), where the losses are potentially recoverable if you don't mind waiting (and you always know what your maximum loss could be). Either way, I agree with BB that shares are a better approach. One thing to be mindful of: a surge in Sterling will impact some UK-based companies more than others, so you could see a vote to Remain result in only a temporary/modest lift in the share prices of some UK-based international companies.

[diseasex]

Careful, if Brexit doesn't go through, the pound will shoot up. I think sasguru is correct and we probably won't have a Brexit. I would tend to sit tight unless both the tel. poll and online poll were over 60% in favour of Brexit.

What I would rather recommend i.e. "win-win" buy some shares in a British international company, BP Royal Dutch Shell etc

They will go down after a Brexit as all shares will but you won't be affected by a pound devaluation, as they earn in dollars. In the event of a Bremain you will be up as most British companies will go up as everyone breathes a sigh of relief.

I was thinking more of writing an option for FTSE index - covered call. I'd pocket some cash in the screnario of crash, which would hedge it at least 5%. The problem is my portfolio doesnt reflect FTSE entirely, so really difficult to hedge. Don't want to sell now either.

[jamesbrown]

Thing is all this online shouting the Brexiteers are doing is convincing them that they have a massive lead.

I disagree. All the surveys indicate that the proportion of punters that expect a Remain vote is much higher than the proportion than will vote to Remain. For example, IIRC, a recent Conservative Home poll of their members put the Remain expectation at ~65% and the Remain vote at ~30%. There may be a few loudmouths (when you're being called a cretin continuously, it's hardly surprising ), but you're probably more attune to that as a Bremainer. Likewise, I find the Bremainers to be far more shouty (WWIII ). Either way, the majority of voters are soft Leave/Remain.