Reply to: IMF warns of dire consequences in the event of a BREXIT

[DodgyAgent]

You do realise that UK will still be in IMF? It's going to need it...

As someone who has escaped the Soviet Union or the Russian totalitarian state I am surprised you are so pro the EU!

[DodgyAgent]

But I thought the Brexiters were shoutier? I do wish people would make their minds up.

You've got the politically-motivated calling favours in to back remain. Our decisions should be for the benefit of the country, not for the benefit of the politicians.

Which will ultimately make the whole referendum a vote for or against the establishment.

[vetran]

You do realise that UK will still be in IMF? It's going to need it...

why are we joining a failing EU currency again?

[LondonManc]

Whatever is "the right choice" we are dealing with massive Bremain propaganda.

But I thought the Brexiters were shoutier? I do wish people would make their minds up.

You've got the politically-motivated calling favours in to back remain. Our decisions should be for the benefit of the country, not for the benefit of the politicians.

[AtW]

You do realise that UK will still be in IMF? It's going to need it...

[Flashman]

Gove and Boris know it better

Up yours IMF

HTH

[jamesbrown]

Not a huge fan of AEP, but he's on the money with this

[unemployed]

i bought some of these for insurance against brexit

i think they will work in the event of a stay vote too

ebay here i come

https://www.alibaba.com/product-deta...7.29.64.0mpbei

[AtW]

Goldman are balls deep in the Stay campaign.

Yes, because they know that their dirty spekulating ways will be over in event of Brexit - Germany and France will impose transaction tax (known as stamp duty in UK, but only poor people pay it).

[AtW]

IMF says Brexit 'bad to very, very bad' - BBC News

Gove and Boris know it better

Up yours IMF

HTH

[jamesbrown]

Thing is all this online shouting the Brexiteers are doing is convincing them that they have a massive lead.

I disagree. All the surveys indicate that the proportion of punters that expect a Remain vote is much higher than the proportion than will vote to Remain. For example, IIRC, a recent Conservative Home poll of their members put the Remain expectation at ~65% and the Remain vote at ~30%. There may be a few loudmouths (when you're being called a cretin continuously, it's hardly surprising ), but you're probably more attune to that as a Bremainer. Likewise, I find the Bremainers to be far more shouty (WWIII ). Either way, the majority of voters are soft Leave/Remain.

[diseasex]

Careful, if Brexit doesn't go through, the pound will shoot up. I think sasguru is correct and we probably won't have a Brexit. I would tend to sit tight unless both the tel. poll and online poll were over 60% in favour of Brexit.

What I would rather recommend i.e. "win-win" buy some shares in a British international company, BP Royal Dutch Shell etc

They will go down after a Brexit as all shares will but you won't be affected by a pound devaluation, as they earn in dollars. In the event of a Bremain you will be up as most British companies will go up as everyone breathes a sigh of relief.

I was thinking more of writing an option for FTSE index - covered call. I'd pocket some cash in the screnario of crash, which would hedge it at least 5%. The problem is my portfolio doesnt reflect FTSE entirely, so really difficult to hedge. Don't want to sell now either.

[jamesbrown]

Careful, if Brexit doesn't go through, the pound will shoot up.

Agreed, you'd be nuts to use currency as your instrument unless you know what you're doing. Take the SNB action last year as a warning of the potential (uncontrolled) losses you could face in a volatile market. No, you'd be better taking a hedged punt; for example, on big UK banks with international exposure (e.g. Barclays), where the losses are potentially recoverable if you don't mind waiting (and you always know what your maximum loss could be). Either way, I agree with BB that shares are a better approach. One thing to be mindful of: a surge in Sterling will impact some UK-based companies more than others, so you could see a vote to Remain result in only a temporary/modest lift in the share prices of some UK-based international companies.

[jamesbrown]

I predict a 5% final lead for Remain (a conservative guesstimate, based on being somewhere between online and phone polls, and discounting the large lead for Remain in phone polls).
If I'm wrong well I've done all I can to ameliorate the impact.

I agree, and in the interests of pedantry, I predict 56/44, with a late swing back to the status quo (possibly as late as June 22), broadly in line with the Indyref. Undecided voters quite often remain undecided, and just opt for the status quo (or don't turn up). However, I'm not nearly as confident about the result as I was when Hamface announced the referendum. Neither campaign is doing particularly well, but I honestly believe that the Bremainers are making a complete hash of Project Fear. Warnings must be credible, otherwise they lose their authority (and, let's face it, Remain is heavily reliant upon that establishment authority).

[BlasterBates]

I think I might hedge myself a bit for brexit. Some options or bit currency won't hurt much .

Careful, if Brexit doesn't go through, the pound will shoot up. I think sasguru is correct and we probably won't have a Brexit. I would tend to sit tight unless both the tel. poll and online poll were over 60% in favour of Brexit.

What I would rather recommend i.e. "win-win" buy some shares in a British international company, BP Royal Dutch Shell etc

They will go down after a Brexit as all shares will but you won't be affected by a pound devaluation, as they earn in dollars. In the event of a Bremain you will be up as most British companies will go up as everyone breathes a sigh of relief.