Admission

[sasguru]

Interesting that you seem to know people who are lazy and feckless. Or risk takers who are going to be millionaires.

Is everything a binary option for you?

I know people from every walk of life - including cretinous loons like you
Actually I've found the most interesting people are either working class or upper class - purely because both types don't give a tulip - for different reasons.

[DimPrawn]

Look at US, Japanese, UK debt, it's mind blowing.

BUT if it doubled tomorrow, we'd forget about it a week later. It would become The New Normal ™

The difference now is central bank intervention. They will harvest and sell their childrens internal organs if it means the property Ponzi scam continues.

Depositor haircuts, pension pot raids, ISA raids, there's lots of ammo beyond NIRP + endless unbounded QE.

[BrilloPad]

I agree, but my point is, can they ensure that?
Not without getting into Greek territory debt-wise.

They cannot forever.

But they will do everything they can to postpone judgement day.

Britain courts fate on Brexit with worst external deficit in history

Britain’s current account deficit is the worst ever recorded in peace-time since the Bank of England started collecting records in 1772 under the reign of George III.

Even during the grimmest moments of the First World War it only slightly exceeded the eye-watering figure of 7pc of GDP racked up in the fourth quarter of last year. No other country in the OECD club is close to this. It has been getting worse for the last four years in a row.

UK plebs will be encouraged to borrow and spend....

[sasguru]

Look at US, Japanese, UK debt, it's mind blowing.

BUT if it doubled tomorrow, we'd forget about it a week later. It would become The New Normal ™

The difference now is central bank intervention. They will harvest and sell their childrens internal organs if it means the property Ponzi scam continues.

Depositor haircuts, pension pot raids, ISA raids, there's lots of ammo beyond NIRP + endless unbounded QE.

Maybe you're right and we can keep going for a few years. But its only making the size of the eventual crash far bigger. Basically the West is fooked in the long run - it has come to the end of its dominance. Historians will see 2007 as the start of the end.
There is only one country in Europe that had any chance of success and that was Germany but they will be dragged down by having to pay for everyone else.
Asia is where its at, till they make the same mistake and create their own entitled generations and bloated welfare states.

[DimPrawn]

I think property prices have a LONG way to go (up) before the crash, possibly even double in the next few years, all due to intervention.

UK won't leave the EU, confidence in the UK will boom, immigration will quadruple.

To sell now is silly.

That's my last word on this thread.

[sasguru]

To sell now is silly.

.

Perhaps, but all eggs in one basket etc etc is not a good idea. Still have a good enough property footprint.

[BrilloPad]

Maybe you're right and we can keep going for a few years. But its only making the size of the eventual crash far bigger. Basically the West is fooked in the long run - it has come to the end of its dominance. Historians will see 2007 as the start of the end.
There is only one country in Europe that had any chance of success and that was Germany but they will be dragged down by having to pay for everyone else.
Asia is where its at, till they make the same mistake and create their own entitled generations and bloated welfare states.

Help! I agree with a sasguru post! Aggghhhhhhh



I have told my children to get a career in medicine. Its the best way of being able to move abroad.

[tomtomagain]

Next 5 years -

If prices continue to rise 3 - 5% a year for the next 5 years then crash 50% what level will they be at?

By my rough calculation at 280k house today would end up as a 180k house. Tough, but not fatal as most people live in a house for a decade or more. The majority of the population is living in the house today that they will be living in in 2021.

Don't get me wrong - I believe house prices have totally lost touch with reality - but I've been believing that since 2002 when I bought my current place for what seemed an enormous amount of money at the time.

The thing that get's me is this:

In theory I would struggle to buy the house I currently live in. It's a standard family house in a reasonable area, nothing particularly special. According to RightMove it's "worth" somewhere north of 550k. Which is complete fantasy. It's a figure so far beyond the means of the majority of the population that they just discard it.

I got it when I was 30 but I don't see how a 30-year-old me could buy it today. This was brought home when I was out having a drink with a young lawyer the other week. House prices inevitably came up and he complained a bit about how he could not afford anything more than a 2 bed flat for his young family.

So if a lawyer cannot buy my house, who the hell can?

So I think a crash will come but it will not be until the boomers and the "my-property-is-my-pension" crowd start to exit the market. Then they'll discover that the paper valuations of their properties are meaningless as the people who should be buying their large family homes are unable to meet the sky-high valuations and have instead been committing themselves financially to much smaller properties.

[sasguru]

So I think a crash will come but it will not be until the boomers and the "my-property-is-my-pension" crowd start to exit the market. .

That process has started ...

[ZARDOZ]

BTL is dying
20-30 somethings have low pay and high debt ditto the generations behind them
Generations with the money and low debt will all be dead in 30 years

Either a new model for house ownership will happen and/or a mega crash. Perhaps the state will take ownership of housing again, possibly there will be some redistribution of assets as the poor generations lurch to the left (after all they will have nothing to lose)

Could have been avoided, but political vanity and short term thinking rule the UK.