Admission

[sasguru]

Define "Soon". A prediction without a time-scale is meaningless.

Next 5 years - the problem is that the can was kicked down the road back in 2007 but we're running out of road.
As OPs above have mentioned look at the deficit. The country can only live above its means for so long before there's a big re-adjustment.
Brexit could be the trigger - investors would look at the UK's monetary and fiscal position and conclude, rightly, that the UK isn't big enough to go it alone and that sterling isn't that strong.
TBH I would be favouring Brexit if we had e.g. Germany's economic position.

[DimPrawn]

Crash of what? Stock markets, bond crash, property?

Too vague. Stock market crash is a possibility, especially US stock markets. Look at US30 chart since 2008.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Last 10 Years | MacroTrends

UK property? With immigration levels, NIRP/ZIRP + QE, low build rate, govt bribes (help to buy etc). No. Nothing there to make sellers panic sell at low prices.

For property to be falling in price, sellers have to be willing to sell at a loss. What's going to cause that?

[sasguru]

For property to be falling in price, sellers have to be willing to sell at a loss. What's going to cause that?

I've got a property on the market and estate agents are telling me the market has gone rather soft due to BTL sell-offs, which feeds into the larger market. Also foreign buyers are leaving the top end in droves. Nine Elms (Vauxhall) in London which has a glut of property is going to be the trigger for falling prices in the 1 million + category (which isn't that much in London).
There are signs which in and off themselves may not be sufficient, but I suspect the wider economy will slow down too, layoffs in the City are increasing and the world economy isn't doing too well.
Brexit would be a good trigger I think.

[DimPrawn]

Atw would be a good trigger I think.

FTFY

[ChimpMaster]

I've got a property on the market and estate agents are telling me the market has gone rather soft due to BTL sell-offs, which feeds into the larger market. Also foreign buyers are leaving the top end in droves. Nine Elms (Vauxhall) in London which has a glut of property is going to be the trigger for falling prices in the 1 million + category (which isn't that much in London).
There are signs which in and off themselves may not be sufficient, but I suspect the wider economy will slow down too, layoffs in the City are increasing and the world economy isn't doing too well.
Brexit would be a good trigger I think.

Perhaps you've become accustomed to the ridiculously high prices and rate of growth. You've got to readjust your expectations, lower the sale price and make it an attractive investment or affordable as a main residence. Would you buy that property? I've stopped buying because the 3% stamp duty surcharge is complete tax-theft and adds £20k to a purchase here, making the investment far less worthwhile because I need to stump up that £20k on top of the deposit and regular SLDT.

5 years is a believable timeframe for a crash of some proportions but as I've said before, it won't happen while mortgage rates are so low. I've gone partly to cash but largely I am happy with the yield from my portfolio and will hold on to it for the returns. The returns alone over the next 5 years will buffer the impact from a crash for me.

The real question is, when there is a crash, what will be % drop be? Normally 30% is about the average around my part of the SE, but to me that wouldn't really constitute a 'crash' because prices have gone up 30% in the past year alone. Really, we need something like a 50% drop to really spice things up.

But put that into a wider context, a 50% crash in any major asset class would imply or lead to massive economic destabilization. We'd all be screwed in one way or another, regardless of whether you are invested or not.

[sasguru]

Perhaps you've become accustomed to the ridiculously high prices and rate of growth. You've got to readjust your expectations, lower the sale price and make it an attractive investment or affordable as a main residence. Would you buy that property? I've stopped buying because the 3% stamp duty surcharge is complete tax-theft and adds £20k to a purchase here, making the investment far less worthwhile because I need to stump up that £20k on top of the deposit and regular SLDT.

5 years is a believable timeframe for a crash of some proportions but as I've said before, it won't happen while mortgage rates are so low. I've gone partly to cash but largely I am happy with the yield from my portfolio and will hold on to it for the returns. The returns alone over the next 5 years will buffer the impact from a crash for me.

The real question is, when there is a crash, what will be % drop be? Normally 30% is about the average around my part of the SE, but to me that wouldn't really constitute a 'crash' because prices have gone up 30% in the past year alone. Really, we need something like a 50% drop to really spice things up.

But put that into a wider context, a 50% crash in any major asset class would imply or lead to massive economic destabilization. We'd all be screwed in one way or another, regardless of whether you are invested or not.

I'm not greedy about the price, I don't have a mortgage on it and bought it for far less than asking, so if it doesn't sell in the next month or so will progressively lower it.
Yes, as you say a "50% crash in any major asset class would imply or lead to massive economic destabilization.". Tell that to the Gen Y'ers who think the world revolves around them and that they'll still have jobs in a situation like that
To avoid being screwed it pays to have skills that are marketable abroad - I kind of do for now, but any economic shock is likely to reduce demand.

[DimPrawn]

The govt would helicopter drop money to property owners long before a 50% drop.

This would be done with negative interest rates, so mortgages might even go negative (BoE pays debtors to live in house). Compared with paying £1000's a month on rent, who would sell? No one.

Chances of property crash is zero and will be for our lifetimes at least.

[sasguru]

The govt would helicopter drop money to property owners long before a 50% drop.

This would be done with negative interest rates, so mortgages might even go negative (BoE pays debtors to live in house). Compared with paying £1000's a month on rent, who would sell? No one.

Chances of property crash is zero and will be for our lifetimes at least.

That was a possibility before the government bailed out the banks and more than doubled national debt (funnily enough in the mid noughties, the UK had one of the lowest debt/GDP ratios in Europe, although personal debt has always been top in Europe).
Any subsidisation of the economy by the Central bank now would put us in Greek territory, debt-wise OR if we printed money lead to a Weimar type situation.
That's what I mean by saying we've reached the end of the road - I believe the govt's hands are tied whatever they say. Some say the falls in stock markets were due to investors realising that central banks cannot do a bailout anymore.

[ChimpMaster]

The govt would helicopter drop money to property owners long before a 50% drop.

This would be done with negative interest rates, so mortgages might even go negative (BoE pays debtors to live in house). Compared with paying £1000's a month on rent, who would sell? No one.

Chances of property crash is zero and will be for our lifetimes at least.

Only if you're on a lifetime tracker, which is very rare on BTL mortgages now.

If you take a BTL mortgage now you will have T&Cs that say the lender will not reduce the mortgage rate below a certain threshold; in fact they won't reduce at all on Trackers because they offer you a low enough rate as they see it and so in their T&Cs they specify they will track BoE up but not down. Lenders learned the hard way back in 2008/9.

[BrilloPad]

I'm seriously thinking of rejigging our property portfolio to cash in, while still leaving us mortgage free, as I expect a big crash soon

Everyone said that in 2002. And 2007.

The property market and immigration are the only things holding up the UK economy. They cannot be allowed to fail.