Admission

[DimPrawn]

The crux is house prices rise whilst lenders are willing to lend, and rates mean that payments are affordable.

As rates are still on the fall and we begin to enter the global world of negative base rates, and govts are still "printing" money, lenders have no problems, borrowers have no problems, and any future problems can be solved through "monetary policy".

For example, steal all pension pots and pay off everyone's mortgages. Problem solved.

[BrilloPad]

Britain courts fate on Brexit with worst external deficit in history

One day people will realize there is no point in saving. You should only spend. Until then, fill your boots.....

[sasguru]

Everyone said that in 2002. And 2007.

The property market and immigration are the only things holding up the UK economy. They cannot be allowed to fail.

On the other hand no-one expected the massive fall in 1991.
This smells to me more like that scenario, all it needs is a trigger:
Demand is falling and supply increasing both at the top:

Luxury Homes Unsold After a Year Showing South London Glut - Bloomberg
Morgan Stanley sounds alarm on London luxury flats bubble | Business | London Evening Standard

and the bottom:

Buy-to-let investors 'to sell 500,000 properties' as confidence plummets - Telegraph

[DimPrawn]

There's no point in saving and there's no point in paying off debt. At some point soon, we will all be paid to borrow, so the more debt you have the richer you will be!

[sasguru]

There's no point in saving and there's no point in paying off debt. At some point soon, we will all be paid to borrow, so the more debt you have the richer you will be!

You do that, I've opened a Swiss bank account. Really.

[DimPrawn]

On the other hand no-one expected the massive fall in 1991.
This smells to me more like that scenario, all it needs is a trigger:
Demand is falling and supply increasing both at the top:

Luxury Homes Unsold After a Year Showing South London Glut - Bloomberg
Morgan Stanley sounds alarm on London luxury flats bubble | Business | London Evening Standard

and the bottom:

Buy-to-let investors 'to sell 500,000 properties' as confidence plummets - Telegraph

1991 saw big interest rates, big mortgage payments, prices fall.

We are in the complete opposite situation. Any dip in house prices is a buying opportunity.

The 3% stamp duty surcharge needs to be more like 30% to have any impact.

[sasguru]

1991 saw big interest rates, big mortgage payments, prices fall.

We are in the complete opposite situation. Any dip in house prices is a buying opportunity.

The 3% stamp duty surcharge needs to be more like 30% to have any impact.

We are not in the opposite situation - we are in a completely different situation.
I know people on mediocre wages who have a 300/400K mortgage - I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.
These zombie households will come crashing down at the first sign of any economic shock - the government can print money but it can't guarantee jobs.

[BrilloPad]

On the other hand no-one expected the massive fall in 1991.
This smells to me more like that scenario, all it needs is a trigger:
Demand is falling and supply increasing both at the top:

Luxury Homes Unsold After a Year Showing South London Glut - Bloomberg
Morgan Stanley sounds alarm on London luxury flats bubble | Business | London Evening Standard

and the bottom:

Buy-to-let investors 'to sell 500,000 properties' as confidence plummets - Telegraph

Around 1988 the sun said that the government was targeting a 10% reduction in house prices. I think the 10% reduction was more luck than judgement(rapid rise due to ending of mortgage tax relief and the White Wednesday debacle). But I think it would have happened anyway.

Things were about okay until about 2002. UK was due a recession then. Interest rates were dropped instead.

Now we have an enormous ponzi scheme. It cannot be allowed to fail.

What is different from 1991 is that the government needs house prices to stay up.

[sasguru]

What is different from 1991 is that the government needs house prices to stay up.

I agree, but my point is, can they ensure that?
Not without getting into Greek territory debt-wise.

[BrilloPad]

I know people on mediocre wages who have a 300/400K mortgage - I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

Interesting that you seem to know people who are lazy and feckless. Or risk takers who are going to be millionaires.

Is everything a binary option for you?