Why I'll be voting to stay in Europe

[sasguru]

Now that wouldn't surprise me. However, the resulting trashing of house prices wouldn't, in the long term, be a bad thing. The South East is a real mess and the rest of the UK is pretty bad when compared to earnings multiples. I would hazard a guess that most people just look at the monthly repayments when taking a mortgage. I doubt it'll happen soon, but imagine the carnage if interest rates were pushed up to something mild like four percent.

None of this really is relevant to the fact that the UK is living beyond its means.
If a 2008-style shock happened now, there really would be very little the government would do.
The point I'm trying to make is that the numbers are saying that the UK, with all its undoubted strengths, has far too many weaknesses for anyone to assume it would necessarily thrive outside the EU.
There are too many pluses in terms of Euro-related business that would be lost e.g. participation in Aerospace with the Airbus, presence of car makers who are here for access to the Euro market etc.
Negotiation with the EU, post Brexit, would not come from a position of UK strength (as the innumerate return-to-Empire-ists would have it) but a position of weakness.

[The_Equalizer]

So why doesn't that happen then?

As everyone knows, it would be seen as a total vote of no confidence in the whole EU project. Worse still it would by Germany's instruction. They'd then have serious problems with other southern EU countries. All sounds jolly messy to me!

[DodgyAgent]

None of this really is relevant to the fact that the UK is living beyond its means.
If a 2008-style shock happened now, there really would be very little the government would do.
The point I'm trying to make is that the numbers are saying that the UK, with all its undoubted strengths, has far too many weaknesses for anyone to assume it would necessarily thrive outside the EU.
There are too many pluses in terms of Euro-related business that would be lost e.g. participation in Aerospace with the Airbus, presence of car makers who are here for access to the Euro market etc.
Negotiation with the EU, post Brexit, would not come from a position of UK strength (as the innumerate return-to-Empire-ists would have it) but a position of weakness.

So with Brexit barriers would automatically be thrown up preventing EU trade?

[sasguru]

So with Brexit barriers would automatically be thrown up preventing EU trade?

It certainly wouldn't continue as it is in the long run.
Why would Airbus keeping making Airbus's wings in the UK when they could provide jobs in an EU country?
Simple pork-barrel politics.

[DodgyAgent]

As everyone knows, it would be seen as a total vote of no confidence in the whole EU project. Worse still it would by Germany's instruction. They'd then have serious problems with other southern EU countries. All sounds jolly messy to me!

And Greece would open the borders to migrants to flood the EU. And we want these people to govern our country?

[The_Equalizer]

None of this really is relevant to the fact that the UK is living beyond its means.
If a 2008-style shock happened now, there really would be very little the government would do.
The point I'm trying to make is that the numbers are saying that the UK, with all its undoubted strengths, has far too many weaknesses for anyone to assume it would necessarily thrive outside the EU.
There are too many pluses in terms of Euro-related business that would be lost e.g. participation in Aerospace with the Airbus, presence of car makers who are here for access to the Euro market etc.
Negotiation with the EU, post Brexit, would not come from a position of UK strength (as the innumerate return-to-Empire-ists would have it) but a position of weakness.

The counter argument is the EU would probably be in a similar mess. You could well have both having to agree trade deals from weak positions. Being in the EU isn't going to fix our debt problem, nor help resolve it.

[DodgyAgent]

It certainly wouldn't continue as it is in the long run.
Why would Airbus keeping making Airbus's wings in the UK when they could provide jobs in an EU country that voted for MEPs.?
Simple pork-barrel politics.

So why do companies set up offshoring contracts with India when they could be employing people in the UK or EU?

[sasguru]

The counter argument is the EU would probably be in a similar mess. You could well have both having to agree trade deals from weak positions. Being in the EU isn't going to fix our debt problem, nor help resolve it.

No, but I would think our debt problem will grow out of the EU.
The Pound would settle at a lower position relative to the Euro than it has been historically (as the markets are now indicating) and as a trade deficit country, our excessive imports will cost more (even if we assume there are no tariffs on Euro goods).

[sasguru]

So why do companies set up offshoring contracts with India when they could be employing people in the UK or EU?

Airbus is mainly a political project. Quite a successful one strangely, for those who believe all government economic activity is futile.
The Uk used to make whole jet airliners, now it makes part of them.
Without the EU, I doubt it'll make anything.

[SueEllen]

Schrengen will be sorted soon.