In or Out?

[DodgyAgent]

Yeah, how about you or is your sphincter too tight to pull it out of your ass?

Not me. Happy to take a point off my margin for any Greek contractors though

[jamesbrown]

The best you're going to expect is the same agreement with Switzerland and Norway with minimal differences. That's "Real-Politik".

If there is a Brexit vote, first of all there will be euphoria, rather like after dumping a girlfriend after a big argument, the pound will drop interest rates will go up, businesses will hold and wait and then long winded negotiation processes will begin, which will often be held up by tiny little EU countries threatening their veto. After several years people will get sick and tired of the economy being in the doldrums waiting for some trade deal to be signed, and wearily sign on an agreement that has minimal differences from Switzerland.

Why do you think main stream politicians don't want to leave the EU even when they complain? ....because they know that's exactly what will happen.

If you actually wanted to have the EU by the short and curlies so forcing them to capitulate in some way, you'd have to actually leave without an agreement, and that really would mean short term economic armagedon. That won't happen not even under UKIP.

Nah, as I say, we're in a position of strength w/r to negotiating an improved settlement, including an improvement on the EU-Canadian agreement (which is currently goods only). Either way, there would be a strong negative reaction in financial markets, and a lot of hot air from France, the Scot Nats and others in the short-term, but this would give way to pragmatism on all fronts. The EU has no interest in sinking further into recession, and Scotland has no interest in committing financial suicide, at least until oil prices recover . Likewise, the French have no interest in increasing the influx of immigrants to Calais by tearing up the bilateral agreement for a UK border in France (whereas many officials do have a vested interesting in creating that illusion). Compromise would emerge from the hyperbole because, ultimately, that's what we demand of our politicians.

That being said, why are you an outer, exactly? I agree with Brillo and others that have said it's much more than an economic decision, let alone one about market volatility. It's a generational decision and the social/democratic arguments are just as important. There's a vast democratic deficit within the EU and literally no hope of reversing this. On the contrary, Ham Face asked for little and got less, which is indicative of the wider contempt within EU institutions towards nation states and, specifically, those states that are seen as meddling with the broader project.

[seanraaron]

It strikes me as more an emotional decision than an economic one, which is why I think the referendum is doomed to fail on the back of a more rational female majority vote. I think public grievances are well known so some kind of reform is on the horizon if the EU can survive the major crises on at the moment.

Part of the reason for the appearance of democratic deficit is down to national sovereignty issues as the Commission, which isn't elected, is where the real power is and those people are selected by the governments of member states. The idea that the EU is this creature that acts outwith the desire of member nations is false if you consider that. In fact members of the European Parliament often complain that they're thwarted by the Commission. So effectively member states are sabotaging the democratic aspects themselves seen from that point of view.

Of course if the parliament acted like a federal body and could make binding legislation outwith the say-so of individual member states then a lot of people would freak. I can't see the point of the EU if it doesn't supplant much of the function of member states frankly, but I expect that will take time and courage to achieve.

[DodgyAgent]

It strikes me as more an emotional decision than an economic one, which is why I think the referendum is doomed to fail on the back of a more rational female majority vote. I think public grievances are well known so some kind of reform is on the horizon if the EU can survive the major crises on at the moment.

Part of the reason for the appearance of democratic deficit is down to national sovereignty issues as the Commission, which isn't elected, is where the real power is and those people are selected by the governments of member states. The idea that the EU is this creature that acts outwith the desire of member nations is false if you consider that. In fact members of the European Parliament often complain that they're thwarted by the Commission. So effectively member states are sabotaging the democratic aspects themselves seen from that point of view.

Of course if the parliament acted like a federal body and could make binding legislation outwith the say-so of individual member states then a lot of people would freak. I can't see the point of the EU if it doesn't supplant much of the function of member states frankly, but I expect that will take time and courage to achieve.

The commission is essentially unelected. Quite why you think anyone within the EU has any "courage" is beyond me.

[seanraaron]

The commission is essentially unelected. Quite why you think anyone within the EU has any "courage" is beyond me.

Yes the commission is unelected, but it's populated by the elected leadership of member states, so arguing that there are policies being enacted "against the will of the people" becomes sketchy - unless you're hoping the EU will hamstring a government you don't like?

I don't think the courage is there; I hope it will be, which is why I'd like to see more of the joint French-German parliaments in the future and some kind of political unification spreading across the continent.

[DodgyAgent]

Yes the commission is unelected, but it's populated by the elected leadership of member states, so arguing that there are policies being enacted "against the will of the people" becomes sketchy - unless you're hoping the EU will hamstring a government you don't like?

I don't think the courage is there; I hope it will be, which is why I'd like to see more of the joint French-German parliaments in the future and some kind of political unification spreading across the continent.

Leaving the EU is a change management issue

http://www.davidtaylorsblog.com/wp-c...e-1024x614.png

[oscarose]

In

[Troll]

In

But not voted

[oscarose]

But not voted

Missed the boat...again

[DodgyAgent]

Missed the boat...again

So you are a failed refugee then?