In or Out?

[DodgyAgent]

Well all our trade agreements are with the EU so when we leave the EU we lose all our trade agreements with every other country, this would be a complete economic disaster. One option would be to join EFTA which would mean signing up to all the EU regulations, allowing the free movement of EU nationals into the UK.

Either you're in the EU with a vote or you're in the EU without a vote.

Take your choice

That works both ways.

[DimPrawn]

Anyone any idea how Greece is doing now? Are we still on for the next crisis in 2018?

I watched this last night

BBC - Greece With Simon Reeve - Media Centre

In Athens, Simon investigates the effects of that crisis. He hears how hard life is for an impoverished community living in converted shipping containers, and in the city he is confronted by angry protesters - and sees just how quickly these protests can descend into a riot.

Greece is totally ****ed and the media report nothing about the state of the place. There's people living in slums no different to India or the poorest parts of South America.

[jamesbrown]

Well all our trade agreements are with the EU so when we leave the EU we lose all our trade agreements with every other country, this would be a complete economic disaster. One option would be to join EFTA which would mean signing up to all the EU regulations, allowing the free movement of EU nationals into the UK.

Either you're in the EU with a vote or you're in the EU without a vote.

Take your choice

It isn't that simple, but I accept that it's one of the arguments that the inners will focus on and we outers will need to defend because, at the very least, there's some uncertainty about the outcome of any negotiated settlement. To begin with, you have to define "economic disaster" and explain why the WTO rules would lead to such a disaster. That is the worst case scenario (i.e. completely failed negotiation), and to label it an economic disaster is baseless IMO, especially when stacked against the short-term depreciation of Sterling that an exit would generate. In the long-term, our current account and trade deficits are a car crash in slow motion. It's very easy to focus on the immediate risks of leaving (e.g. w/r to foreign direct investment and the current account), but there are self-evident risks of maintaining the economic status quo, and this is precisely what will happen in a remain scenario.

Next, there would be a period of two years where we'd need to negotiate arrangements with the EU. The question is whether we'd be able to negotiate something better than similar arrangements enjoyed by Norway, Switzerland etc. Obviously, the inners will argue that it's impossible. Our trade deficit with Europe suggests otherwise. However, the precise mix of regulation, openness and budgetary contribution that would accompany a free trade arrangement is, indeed, uncertain and it's no good pointing to Norway, Switzerland etc. as a likely outcome because we're in a vastly stronger position. If anything the Canada-EU agreement is a better starting point, but we'd need to consider services as well as goods. Free movement of people is not a prerequisite to free trade.

[BrilloPad]

I watched this last night

BBC - Greece With Simon Reeve - Media Centre



Greece is totally ****ed and the media report nothing about the state of the place. There's people living in slums no different to India or the poorest parts of South America.

Jesus! That is very sad.

I would like to see the architects on the EURO put on trial.

[seanraaron]

Jesus! That is very sad.

I would like to see the architects on the EURO put on trial.

There should have been more stringent rules before allowing nations to join it and tighter political integration. Greece shouldn't be allowed to fail and the richer states should just suck it up whilst pushing for greater economic/political integration.

[DodgyAgent]

There should have been more stringent rules before allowing nations to join it and tighter political integration. Greece shouldn't be allowed to fail and the richer states should just suck it up whilst pushing for greater economic/political integration.

It is not about what should or should not happen it is about what has and what will happen. Are you going to dip into your savings to help Greece?

[BrilloPad]

It is not about what should or should not happen it is about what has and what will happen. Are you going to dip into your savings to help Greece?

The members of the EURO should. It is what they signed up for.

[seanraaron]

It is not about what should or should not happen it is about what has and what will happen. Are you going to dip into your savings to help Greece?

Yeah, how about you or is your sphincter too tight to pull it out of your ass?

[BrilloPad]

Yeah, how about you or is your sphincter too tight to pull it out of your ass?

DA expects us all to help. He will then take his 25%.....

[BlasterBates]

It isn't that simple, but I accept that it's one of the arguments that the inners will focus on and we outers will need to defend because, at the very least, there's some uncertainty about the outcome of any negotiated settlement. To begin with, you have to define "economic disaster" and explain why the WTO rules would lead to such a disaster. That is the worst case scenario (i.e. completely failed negotiation), and to label it an economic disaster is baseless IMO, especially when stacked against the short-term depreciation of Sterling that an exit would generate. In the long-term, our current account and trade deficits are a car crash in slow motion. It's very easy to focus on the immediate risks of leaving (e.g. w/r to foreign direct investment and the current account), but there are self-evident risks of maintaining the economic status quo, and this is precisely what will happen in a remain scenario.

Next, there would be a period of two years where we'd need to negotiate arrangements with the EU. The question is whether we'd be able to negotiate something better than similar arrangements enjoyed by Norway, Switzerland etc. Obviously, the inners will argue that it's impossible. Our trade deficit with Europe suggests otherwise. However, the precise mix of regulation, openness and budgetary contribution that would accompany a free trade arrangement is, indeed, uncertain and it's no good pointing to Norway, Switzerland etc. as a likely outcome because we're in a vastly stronger position. If anything the Canada-EU agreement is a better starting point, but we'd need to consider services as well as goods. Free movement of people is not a prerequisite to free trade.

The best you're going to expect is the same agreement with Switzerland and Norway with minimal differences. That's "Real-Politik".

If there is a Brexit vote, first of all there will be euphoria, rather like after dumping a girlfriend after a big argument, the pound will drop interest rates will go up, businesses will hold and wait and then long winded negotiation processes will begin, which will often be held up by tiny little EU countries threatening their veto. After several years people will get sick and tired of the economy being in the doldrums waiting for some trade deal to be signed, and wearily sign on an agreement that has minimal differences from Switzerland.

Why do you think main stream politicians don't want to leave the EU even when they complain? ....because they know that's exactly what will happen.

If you actually wanted to have the EU by the short and curlies so forcing them to capitulate in some way, you'd have to actually leave without an agreement, and that really would mean short term economic armagedon. That won't happen not even under UKIP.