Salmond "We can take Scotland in two weeks"

[minestrone]

I like Britain, I want to live in Britain, it is a fantastic country.

[Flashman]

I like Britain, I want to live in Britain, it is a fantastic country.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EH1G4EwljM

[minestrone]

You have to take off the s...

[mudskipper]

Ah well, I don't think Scotland can complain that they're overlooked by the BBC any more.

[jemb]

Out of fying pan and into the fire.

...so we've all seen ourselves through a recession. The economy is booming, forecast to be the biggest in Europe by 2030.
Phew? No, because a Yes will will see us bounce back into recession with a severe economic crisis before you can shout Mel Gibson.
Scotland will have NO currency union - Mark Carney is even hinting the very idea of it is bonkers and yet people are still going to vote Yes?

This is madness. DevoMax gives us a massive level of control of our country without an economic disaster.

Jeez, I can't believe this is likely to happen.

[eek]

...so we've all seen ourselves through a recession. The economy is booming, forecast to be the biggest in Europe by 2030.
Phew? No, because a Yes will will see us bounce back into recession with a severe economic crisis before you can shout Mel Gibson.
Scotland will have NO currency union - Mark Carney is even hinting the very idea of it is bonkers and yet people are still going to vote Yes?

This is madness. DevoMax gives us a massive level of control of our country without an economic disaster.

Jeez, I can't believe this is likely to happen.

Two problems

1) Devomax isn't an option in the referendum.
2) Devomax is not something the unelected Gordon Brown can offer. Any party who offers it may discover the entirety of England votes UKIP at the next election.

While Westminster seems to still want Scotland in the union, the sight of everyone panicking and offering more and more as part of that panic means many south of the border would be happy to be shot of Scotland...

[The Spartan]

It is probably not, price of extraction is now 5 times greater than it was in the 90s at its peak. US is now going to start exporting oil so the price is expected to drop. I think the peak of oil was 1999 when we got 2.6 million barrels out a year, we now get 0.8 million.

Even at the SNP's exaggerated 24 million barrels left it is not that much.

Oil revenue is falling dramatically.

WMS The US are using fracking with great success so they're now in position to actually export oil, also from what I read the EU is looking to reduce it's reliance on fossil fuels so if you're reliant on oil revenues that's not great.

At the end of the day someone will only pay what it's worth and Salmond has no influence over global oil prices.

[Old Greg]

No need for Scottish savers and businesses to panic

Argyll News: FT reports on ongoing capital flight from Scotland and Telegraph reports on Credit Suisse warning of ‘grave deflationary shock’ | For Argyll

This evening’s FT online [9th September] reports on the continuing transfer of funds out of Scotland, provoked by financial sector anxiety on the likelihood of Scotland choosing to vote for independence in just over eight days time.

The FT reports the CEO of a service company to the wealth management industry, Multrees Investor Services, as saying that their company alone has already moved out of Scotland ‘hundreds of millions of pounds’ from their clients’ bank accounts out of Scotland. The CEO, Chris Fisher, said that if his company was doing this, so would others be.

This sort of action from the financial services sector has been anticipated, although dismissed as ‘scaremongering;’ by the SNP.

But anyone with any idea of how this sector operates, how risk averse it is in conditions of any sort of uncertainty, knew that this was not scaremongering but simple necessity in an industry whose players have pension funds in their trust to protect and a legal obligation to look after the interests of their shareholders. And what was anticipated is now taking place.

The problem is that funds moved out of Scotland now are not going to come back – damage sustained before the vote.

If the vote happened to be a narrow ‘No’ in favour of the Union, this would leave the markets spooked at the inevitable prospect of the renewal of a push for independence on the short term. This is damage sustained before the vote

The Telegraph has reported that the bank, Credit Suisse, has warned of what it calls ‘grave deflationary shock’ for Scotland. Cfredit Suisse anticipates: ‘recession; deposit flight; 20pc devaluation; 5/10pc cut in wages’.

The bank is reported as saying that they place:

‘a 40% probability on a peg to the pound [which we think would ultimately not hold]‘;
‘a <1% chance of a Euro peg’;
‘a 10% probability on a freely floating currency’;
‘a 50% probability on a currency arrangement which would avoid devaluation against sterling’; and of this, they place
‘a 25% probability on a formal currency union’; and
‘a 25% probability on a Hong Kong-style currency board’.

The bank says that: ‘Significant deposit flight would require Scottish banks to offer much higher deposit rates, which would in turn increase borrowing costs for Scottish entities and individuals. This, in our view, would increase the risk of a severe economic downturn in Scotland post-independence.’

Although obviously if you are going to panic, make sure you panic first.

[Old Greg]

Two problems

1) Devomax isn't an option in the referendum.
2) Devomax is not something the unelected Gordon Brown can offer. Any party who offers it may discover the entirety of England votes UKIP at the next election.

While Westminster seems to still want Scotland in the union, the sight of everyone panicking and offering more and more as part of that panic means many south of the border would be happy to be shot of Scotland...

Gordon Brown is an elected MP, so can with cross-party support introduce legislation into the House of Commons.

Not saying it's a sensible idea etc., but just correcting on a point of fact.

[eek]

Gordon Brown is an elected MP, so can with cross-party support introduce legislation into the House of Commons.

Not saying it's a sensible idea etc., but just correcting on a point of fact.

Yep a Scottish mp trying to dictate what the English offer. Hence unelected by anyone outside Scotland offering things not in his remit to offer