Salmond "We can take Scotland in two weeks"

[darmstadt]

This evening’s FT online [9th September] reports on the continuing transfer of funds out of Scotland, provoked by financial sector anxiety on the likelihood of Scotland choosing to vote for independence in just over eight days time.

The FT reports the CEO of a service company to the wealth management industry, Multrees Investor Services, as saying that their company alone has already moved out of Scotland ‘hundreds of millions of pounds’ from their clients’ bank accounts out of Scotland. The CEO, Chris Fisher, said that if his company was doing this, so would others be.

So where are they moving them to because if they're moving them out of Scotland then presumably they're moving them out of the UK otherwise they're not really moving them anywhere. If they're moving them abroad then they're hitting the UK economy which makes them stupid and as there has been no vote yet and no one knows the outcome of the vote and independence wouldn't come about until some 18 months after a possible yes vote which gives them enough time to see what happens and then move their funds if need be. If just shows how stupid that people are who work in the financial area

[Old Greg]

Yep a Scottish mp trying to dictate what the English offer. Hence unelected by anyone outside Scotland offering things not in his remit to offer

Or to put it more comprehensively and accurately

A UK MP representing a Scottish constituency trying to propose an offer of a constitutional settlement between the UK and Scotland. Hence elected be voters inside Scotland and therefore inside the UK, proposing things it is in his remit to propose, as it will be subject to multiple votes in the UK House of Commons.

[scooterscot]

So where are they moving them to because if they're moving them out of Scotland then presumably they're moving them out of the UK otherwise they're not really moving them anywhere. If they're moving them abroad then they're hitting the UK economy which makes them stupid and as there has been no vote yet and no one knows the outcome of the vote and independence wouldn't come about until some 18 months after a possible yes vote which gives them enough time to see what happens and then move their funds if need be. If just shows how stupid that people are who work in the financial area

Indeed, where is the money going? The whole of GBP is going to take a hit, it does not matter where on these isles you choose to rest it, it's still at risk.

[Old Greg]

So where are they moving them to because if they're moving them out of Scotland then presumably they're moving them out of the UK otherwise they're not really moving them anywhere. If they're moving them abroad then they're hitting the UK economy which makes them stupid and as there has been no vote yet and no one knows the outcome of the vote and independence wouldn't come about until some 18 months after a possible yes vote which gives them enough time to see what happens and then move their funds if need be. If just shows how stupid that people are who work in the financial area

To English banks or branches presumably, and perhaps it's not just financial services workers. People are funny about money and risk.

Earlier this month, UBS economist Paul Donovan prophesied a Yes vote would bring a “significant risk” of deposits heading south. In fact, the move had already begun. One chief executive tells Lombard she shifted £300,000, the entire cash float of her company, to England starting in May. Contacts at trade bodies and networking groups report a minority of members have done the same.

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6163f0c8-3...#ixzz3Ctn7GT9V

Small business owners know they can lose a lot of money listening to well-pensioned professionals. These include bankers who encouraged them to leverage up ahead of the financial crisis then cut off credit during it.
When the firm you have built is also your retirement fund, you do not take chances with it. Lodging your cash at Barclays’ Berwick branch is a reasonable response to the worst-case scenario of capital controls if currency talks collapse.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6163f0c8-3...#axzz3CpHE92bm

[Old Greg]

Indeed, where is the money going? The whole of GBP is going to take a hit, it does not matter where on these isles you choose to rest it, it's still at risk.

It's relative risk, isn't it?

If one of the proto successor states is deemed higher risk than the other, people may decide to move funds from:

EWNI to Scotland

or

Scotland to EWNI

Silly really, as it will take a couple of years to sort out so there's plenty of time to panic, but people can behave irrationally at times.

[scooterscot]

I
Silly really, as it will take a couple of years to sort out so there's plenty of time to panic, but people can behave irrationally at times.

Is irrationality genetic? Listened to this one the other night, very interesting.

BBC - Podcasts and Downloads - The Infinite Monkey Cage

http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/...0811-1700a.mp3

[Old Greg]

Is irrationality genetic? Listened to this one the other night, very interesting.

BBC - Podcasts and Downloads - The Infinite Monkey Cage

http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/...0811-1700a.mp3

What is interesting is that if you look at the bank run on Northern Rock or similar, the panic may be irrational for the group, but for the individual panicking first is rational.

I hope we don't see something like this in the event of a yes vote (the bookies are now pricing in a 30% chance of this). Perhaps this will be a Black Swan event with significant European contagion.

[scooterscot]

What is interesting is that if you look at the bank run on Northern Rock or similar, the panic may be irrational for the group, but for the individual panicking first is rational.

I hope we don't see something like this in the event of a yes vote (the bookies are now pricing in a 30% chance of this). Perhaps this will be a Black Swan event with significant European contagion.

I've heard a number of stories along those lines when studying statistics. My favourite is the supermarket that caught fire, a number of people died. It turned out the reason for the high death toll was due to smoke inhalation, not fire. And the reason so many of them were overcome by smoke was because they refused to leave the store until they received their change from the cashier. Incredible irrationality, my life or cash?

[Mich the Tester]

Two problems

1) Devomax isn't an option in the referendum.
2) Devomax is not something the unelected Gordon Brown can offer. Any party who offers it may discover the entirety of England votes UKIP at the next election.

To me this illustrates the problem with referenda; voters are typically given two options which are at opposite ends of the range of opinions. In this case it's 'independence' or 'union'. I'm sure there are millions, perhaps even a majority who would prefer something in between the two, such as 'devomax'; it wouldn't surprise me if it's a similar situation with the EU referendum. All those people whose opinions lie somewhere between the two options, and I think that's an awful lot of people, are effectively disenfranchised. It's a shamocracy.

[mudskipper]

IIRC, the original proposal for the referendum included a devomax option.

I believe it was Westminster who insisted on Yes or No, presumably confident of a no vote.