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Contract rates not obeying inflation

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    #51
    Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post

    I think you can overestimate local factors on the short time scales where assets reprice dramatically. The recent boom in house prices has been global or, at least, across much of the globe, along with share prices and other assets. It's no secret that QE was intended to boost asset prices and it worked very well. As QE unwinds, it is unlikely that a much reduced money supply won't cause a significant reversal in the same markets/assets. In the short-term, things like local supply are a side show relative to those bigger forces, although they are important in the long run, I agree. Oh, and rates are probably going up to 1.75% next week, and then 2-2.25% a month later.
    Except that share prices (FTSE 100) have barely risen this Millennium.

    Also, have you any evidence that QE will unwind?

    Real interest rates are going lower and lower making house purchases more attractive.

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      #52
      Originally posted by Lance View Post

      Also published inflation rates are generally CPI which excludes housing.

      Housing is the real elephant in the room for the cost of living. It's not included in the headline figures, yet it is more than 50% of the living cost of the poorest.
      And Rishi says he'll protect the green belt.
      Truss says she'll build more houses, yet when she was responsible for building houses she didn;t build a single one.

      Scrap the green belt. Reform planning. Build more houses. (note that's not a vote winner cos of NIMBYs so will never happen).

      Interesting project that will never happen in the UK.....
      Virginia launches world’s biggest 3D-printed housing project (freethink.com)
      There is much less need for people to live near work these days I think they should be trying to regenerate existing brownfield sites in the north rather than **** up what green space is left

      Comment


        #53
        Originally posted by hugebrain View Post

        Except that share prices (FTSE 100) have barely risen this Millennium.

        Also, have you any evidence that QE will unwind?

        Real interest rates are going lower and lower making house purchases more attractive.
        The FTSE 100 is a dog, full of legacy companies, a complete outlier.

        Evidence for QT? Oh, I don't know, how about the stated policies of the major central banks that engaged in QE? Although it's really only the Fed that matters and they are doing QT at a pretty rapid rate, $95bn per month.

        If you think house purchases are very attractive in the face of QT and interest rate rises, then borrow lots and buy lots of houses, I'm sure you'll be fine.

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          #54
          Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post


          Evidence for QT? Oh, I don't know, how about the stated policies of the major central banks that engaged in QE? Although it's really only the Fed that matters and they are doing QT at a pretty rapid rate, $95bn per month.

          If you think house purchases are very attractive in the face of QT and interest rate rises, then borrow lots and buy lots of houses, I'm sure you'll be fine.
          So your evidence is statements from serial liars who even used the same lie a couple of years ago and then didn’t tighten? Why would they even need to QT, since they assured us the inflation was only transitory? I guess you believed that too.

          I’ll probably buy one or two, but without borrowing since I’m a contractor (anyone remember when this board was for contractors?).

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            #55
            Originally posted by hugebrain View Post

            So your evidence is statements from serial liars who even used the same lie a couple of years ago and then didn’t tighten? Why would they even need to QT, since they assured us the inflation was only transitory? I guess you believed that too.

            I’ll probably buy one or two, but without borrowing since I’m a contractor (anyone remember when this board was for contractors?).
            Even for your ironic username...

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              #56
              Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post

              Even for your ironic username...
              Size doesn’t matter. It’s what you do with it that counts.

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                #57
                Originally posted by hugebrain View Post

                Size doesn’t matter. It’s what you do with it that counts.
                I wouldn't do that with it.

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                  #58
                  Originally posted by Guy Incognito View Post

                  There is much less need for people to live near work these days I think they should be trying to regenerate existing brownfield sites in the north rather than **** up what green space is left
                  Tell me you don't know that the north is like, what green belt is, or how bad the planning system is, without telling me........ etc.

                  Below is a green belt site in Denholme, West Yorkshire. It has had planning refused as it's green belt.
                  The green belt doesn't work. Huge swathes of the UK are green belt. With around 1% of thet green belt we could build the houses that are needed.

                  "Brownfield" sites are not favored by developers for several reasons. Cost. Planning (it's very hard to get planning for these as well). And more importantly, nobody wants to live there..... We need to build desirable houses, where people want to live (in the north and the south)

                  Click image for larger version

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                  See You Next Tuesday

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                    #59
                    Originally posted by Lance View Post
                    Tell me you don't know that the north is like, what green belt is, or how bad the planning system is, without telling me........ etc.
                    You won't change my mind with a single photo.

                    Here are my credentials.

                    Click image for larger version

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                      #60
                      The original question is why do contract rates not move with inflation and I have not heard a satisfactory answer other than you need to increase productivity to ask for more cash

                      This is partly why I keep on asking about rates and perm salaries - In part because contract rates dont seem to have moved (and I might be out of date here) whilst taxation (IR35) has increased. All of this against a backdrop where employment is at record high and there is a shortage - So if rates dont go up in this environment when will they go up ?

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