State of the Market

[oliverson]

First it's the elections, then it's going to be the summer holidays, then it's going to be the already Q4/end of the year...

There is always a justification to why the market is slow but the real reason is that the market just sucks baws and it's been like this for years

There's always been hot periods and then factors/events that kill the market, but I see this now as terminal decline. Too many people looking for too few opportunities and prepared to work for peanuts, inside IR35, etc., I see no hope in hell of a return to the glory days of contracting. Then there's the taxation. Sure glad I've had my 20+ years in the game but looking to wind down now, get out of this country before Labour tax the living 5hit out of me further!

[dsc]

First it's the elections, then it's going to be the summer holidays, then it's going to be the already Q4/end of the year...

There is always a justification to why the market is slow but the real reason is that the market just sucks baws and it's been like this for years

It is effectively the summer hols period anyway, even if there's even anyone left thinking about pushing some projects forward they have the election in a month, so what's the point? Q3 is the earliest tulip is going to pick up...if it ever does, but even then you might find various save-the-budget-programs being announced by the new gov, more taxes etc. so wouldn't hold my breath really.

[SchumiStars]

Usually there is a reason for a downturn, i.e. .dotnet boom, banking scandal, cost of living.

What I am finding most odd, that there does not seem to be a direct reason for all of this tulip ATM. And since there is no reason, we can project the recovery, if at all. It does seem like 2025 before things are likely to pickup.

[Fraidycat]

Usually there is a reason for a downturn, i.e. .dotnet boom, banking scandal, cost of living.

What I am finding most odd, that there does not seem to be a direct reason for all of this tulip ATM. And since there is no reason, we can project the recovery, if at all. It does seem like 2025 before things are likely to pickup.

This is the multi year Pandemic bust that was supposed to happen in mid 2020.

They just delayed it by 2 years by handing out free money like candy.

But that never works in the long run, as otherwise there wound never be an economic bust ever again. In fact it just makes things even worse, ie Inflation.

This ends when inflation is properly contained, it might be already, but there could be another round of inflation if they cut interest too soon/by too much. So they are taking their time about it. Even when they start cutting it could be years before we get below 3% again.

But a change in sentiment may still be enough, in 2025 clients might start opening up the purse strings when they see the worst is behind us.

[avonleigh]

Usually there is a reason for a downturn, i.e. .dotnet boom, banking scandal, cost of living.

What I am finding most odd, that there does not seem to be a direct reason for all of this tulip ATM. And since there is no reason, we can project the recovery, if at all. It does seem like 2025 before things are likely to pickup.

You have mentioned cost of living. That's one factor. Throw in interest rates, state of the economy, brexit, ir35, offshoring, oversupply of visas, covid etc etc. All have had an impact one way or another, some to a lesser degree than others. There is a reason for everything, things don't just happen.
There will be a recovery, of course there will. Once the election is over and the economy starts improving. Whether it gets back to pre-crisis is something that nobody knows right now.

[Fraidycat]

Whether it gets back to pre-crisis is something that nobody knows right now.

Not inflation adjusted.

£500 a day today is equivalent to what £400 a day was pre covid.

The £500 a day contract is now cheaper than ever for clients. So i expect demand for contractors to return.

Just the premium above Permie pay gets smaller and smaller overtime.

[ladymuck]

1 story I heard is that there could well be 1 if not 2 state funerals later this year - so it’s gone early because there may not be a suitable time later…

That's treason!

[SchumiStars]

I might kill myself. On my gravestone, I was taken by IR35 and a load of freshies.

I used to support immigration believing there was enough for everyone. Now I am not so sure.

[Unix]

Usually there is a reason for a downturn, i.e. .dotnet boom, banking scandal, cost of living.

What I am finding most odd, that there does not seem to be a direct reason for all of this tulip ATM. And since there is no reason, we can project the recovery, if at all. It does seem like 2025 before things are likely to pickup.

Interest rates are the reason.

[jamesbrown]

Interest rates are the reason.

This thread started in 2016. Interest rates and GEs and pandemics and downturns and summer holidays are all reasons, on different timescales. However, the systematic commoditization of IT skillets started before this thread started. Peaks and troughs will continue, but they are superimposed on a downwards trajectory.