State of the Market

[eek]

Stagflation is a period of rising inflation but falling output and rising unemployment.

It is especially brutal for contractors because contract rates can be adjusted down by 50% or even more. But permie salaries are never cut, if anything when inflation is 10%, permies (or at-least the ones who don't lose their jobs) will still get a pay rise, even if it is just 2%.

The last time there was a major bout of stagflation was the 70's, so its not something the contractor market has ever really seen before.

Stagflation has nothing to do with individual sectors but the / a country as a whole which is why the definition starts with "rising inflation but falling output".

And the concern about stagflation is that it continues even when the main levy to reduce wage inflation (increasing unemployment) has already occurred.

But the economy as a whole is still at full employment (on a technical basis) so we aren't yet in a situation where Stagflation exists - no matter how much you wish to claim it is.

All we have is a world where a lot of companies for reasons unknown have battened down the hatches and don't want to invest in new software at the moment.

[rocktronAMP]

I had an interview last week. For a role paying not well, but ok. Front end developer.
==////==

This was last Thursday. I heard back finally yesterday.
I didn't get it. Apparent an answer I gave to a question about data modelling was not up to scratch.
This was a FRONT END developer role. Data modelling was not listed on the Job spec.
This was the only interview to come through for me in 3 months.
It's getting more and more random.

I'm glad you are bearing up.
Keep refactoring your CV.
There are jobs out there, but you are not making to the top of the pile. The question is why? Especially if you have experience and achievements.

I forgot to ask:
Did you sort out your mortgage payments yet? Lender might have offered a mortgage holiday, or suggested contract variation: reduce monthly payments but increase the length of the term for example.

[Fraidycat]

Software Engineers and Tech people will be needed for a long while yet. However, you will likely need less of them with the current advances in technology and by utilising AI.

I have been using AI all this week to port code from one programming language to another. That is something that should be relatively easy because it is not ambiguous requirements like generating code from english prompts might be.

The AI can convert the easy stuff, no problems, but anything hard it often struggles. Makes bad library calls in the target language. or makes stuff up.

So i'm not worried about AI over the short and medium term, but 10 tens years from now who knows.

I remember Gary Kasparov in the lates eighties saying how far bar behind chess AI was and that it might never be able to beat him, but 10 years later it did.

[eek]

I have been using AI all this week to port code from one programming language to another. That is something that should be relatively easy because it is not ambiguous requirements like generating code from english prompts might be.

The AI can convert the easy stuff, no problems, but anything hard it often struggles. Makes bad library calls in the target language. or makes stuff up.

So i'm not worried about AI over the short and medium term, but 10 tens years from now who knows.

I remember Gary Kasparov in the lates eighties saying how far bar behind chess AI was and that it might never be able to beat him, but 10 years later it did.

There was conversation early this week where someone was surprised that an AI taught in English had little difficulty doing stuff in other languages - which they were surprised about but I wasn't because languages are languages so once the language knowledge and product knowledge is combined it can handle that new language without an issue.

As you say the issue isn't the basic stuff - it's the detail where the AI instead of looking for the actual answer makes something up based on plausible information. And it's clear from the times I've used and it and the library calls that it doesn't look at the library it just says use library X and then guesses (based on other APIs it's read) what the actual call and parameters are.

[BlueSharp]

There was conversation early this week where someone was surprised that an AI taught in English had little difficulty doing stuff in other languages - which they were surprised about but I wasn't because languages are languages so once the language knowledge and product knowledge is combined it can handle that new language without an issue.

As you say the issue isn't the basic stuff - it's the detail where the AI instead of looking for the actual answer makes something up based on plausible information. And it's clear from the times I've used and it and the library calls that it doesn't look at the library it just says use library X and then guesses (based on other APIs it's read) what the actual call and parameters are.

A junior member is probably about its ability at the moment. I used it last week to generate skeleton TOGAF documentation based on feeding it emails other documentation and the document template. It made a decent attempt at the first draft of the documents.

[TheDude]

There was conversation early this week where someone was surprised that an AI taught in English had little difficulty doing stuff in other languages - which they were surprised about but I wasn't because languages are languages so once the language knowledge and product knowledge is combined it can handle that new language without an issue.

As you say the issue isn't the basic stuff - it's the detail where the AI instead of looking for the actual answer makes something up based on plausible information. And it's clear from the times I've used and it and the library calls that it doesn't look at the library it just says use library X and then guesses (based on other APIs it's read) what the actual call and parameters are.

AI doesn't learn English or any other languages - it looks for relationships.

Depending on the type of AI model the importance of the relationships that matter are strengthened during the training /learning phase.

[swamp]

People have been saying for years that software engineers' jobs would be under threat, from various automations and what we now call low-code. But it's never really come to pass.

I just see AI -- these large language models -- as another bandwagon. I can't see it replacing any proper software engineers. In fact, it should provide a boost to the IT market.

[TheDude]

People have been saying for years that software engineers' jobs would be under threat, from various automations and what we now call low-code. But it's never really come to pass.

I just see AI -- these large language models -- as another bandwagon. I can't see it replacing any proper software engineers. In fact, it should provide a boost to the IT market.

I have never encountered a BA that can spec out a Jira without the me having to ask a load of clarifying questions.

As such AI as no hope of replacing me.

[Fraidycat]

As such AI as no hope of replacing me.

Depending on your age you maybe correct.

But eventually the AI wins at everything. Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI).

Our only hope is they shut this technology down before it reaches super intelligence and kills us all.

We might think that is far off, but if current rates of improvement the ASI singularity will happen before 2050.

[dsc]

People have been saying for years that software engineers' jobs would be under threat, from various automations and what we now call low-code. But it's never really come to pass.

I just see AI -- these large language models -- as another bandwagon. I can't see it replacing any proper software engineers. In fact, it should provide a boost to the IT market.

AI doesn't need to do everything, it's enough for example it produces smth which can be further tweaked by one senior eng and released without the need for say 3 people. Don't forget often AI is tulipe as it's not trained on a particular subject, narrow the training data block and it will outperform humans.