State of the Market

[willendure]

Here are govt stats on immigration visas:

https://assets.publishing.service.go...-mar-2023.xlsx

Looking at Q1 2023 (the most recent figures available), there were 20K visa grants in the categories of Senior or Specialist Worker and Skilled Workers (non-health).

Looking at the Q1 2023 occupations drill down, I count >600 in IT business analysts, architects and system designers, and easily >1000 in programmers and software development professionals. I know we are not all IT contractors here, but that does seem likely to be the stats of most interest on here. Take a look yourself if you want others.

Saying one thing and doing another? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68626430

Actually, I think I was wrong to say there is another spreadsheet with origin data in it. I was thinking of this one I posted a few months back in this thread. Gives more details on the jobs those T2 visas are doing.

Must be some stats somewhere on where all these people are coming from though..? EDIT: I see Snooky just posted it, thanks!

So I think we can deduce amonst our various sources and spreadsheets there must be something like 10K Indian T2 Visa holding IT workers arrived into the country in 2023. No wonder there ain't many contracts about these days!

[willendure]

Was a while back, but gives some insight into how these things can work:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35832028

https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/scottish-software-whistle-blower.54742/page-2

[Snooky]

Actually, I think I was wrong to say there is another spreadsheet with origin data in it

No, you were right. This one from March 2024 gives quarterly data for work visas since 2010:
https://assets.publishing.service.go...ts-mar-24.xlsx

Sheet 'Data - CoS_D02' has the relevant information by nationality. If you sort by descending number of applications it paints a fairly clear picture.

[Paracelsus]

Japan is turning into a basket case...

Falling productivity, scarcity of capital, high government borrowing, rising health care costs, stagflation... starting to sound familiar?

All good points. It's an unusual country for sure.
It'll be interesting to see what happens. I've been going there for 20 years and every time it's the same story - zero immigration, warnings of a population timebomb, number of Japanese wanting to leave for the UK or similar rounding to zero. I know a few people who managed to move there for work, none remotely interested in ever coming back. Will there be a reckoning, or will they find their own solution?

The narrative pushed over here is we need high immigration/birthrate to prop up GDP (nominal, per-capita be damned) and to prop up pensioners.
To me, this is subscribing to a Ponzi scheme as everybody gets old and then you need even more bodies at the bottom of the pyramid, and so on...
Japan may shatter that narrative if it manages to automate or otherwise tech-ify through the storm until the oldies die off and population balances itself out.

[willendure]

All good points. It's an unusual country for sure.
It'll be interesting to see what happens. I've been going there for 20 years and every time it's the same story - zero immigration, warnings of a population timebomb, number of Japanese wanting to leave for the UK or similar rounding to zero. I know a few people who managed to move there for work, none remotely interested in ever coming back. Will there be a reckoning, or will they find their own solution?

The narrative pushed over here is we need high immigration/birthrate to prop up GDP (nominal, per-capita be damned) and to prop up pensioners.
To me, this is subscribing to a Ponzi scheme as everybody gets old and then you need even more bodies at the bottom of the pyramid, and so on...
Japan may shatter that narrative if it manages to automate or otherwise tech-ify through the storm until the oldies die off and population balances itself out.

It takes a long time for something like a currency to fail, and also hard to predict when it will happen, so it could quite possibly be a long way off or something changes to reverse it. Japenese ladies are very attractive - I think I would be busy making lots of kids if I lived there!

I also think they are a savvy bunch and have a tendency to be good with money and saving. Will be rough for them if the Yen were to fail obviously, but many have savings tucked away overseas as per dollar milkshake. In many ways their fate is strongly tied to the dollar and cannot really escape that so long as there is a Yen.

I think the lesson for us is... is our government as shrewd as theirs? or are uk governments generally significantly more... shambolic. Shat on by Tories, Stuffed up by Labour. Therefore, maybe don't rely on Uk Plc to pull you through and think carefully about squirreling assets away. Also if we are on a journey between our current state and a more Japan like one (US vassal) due to what is baked into demographics, and therefore inevitable, that will continue to be a shift down for us.

Japs and Germans know what it means to lose, in different ways - was reading that Germans buy a lot of gold because of their experiences of hyperinflation giving them a collective tendency to appreciate its value. We don't have that same collective understanding, but we probably do have something like the same collective reliance on the $. https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-cont...24-english.pdf

But there is something that happens when a population shrinks with a large elderly and wealthy generation - wealth gets passed down, housing gets cheaper - so long as your country is not trying to make up for it in other ways such as bringing in immigrants to compensate, setting inheritance tax high, stealing wealth by over borrowing, and so on.

Another factor to consider with Japan is their energy reliance - since they lack any hydrocarbons themselves (what it means to lose!). They are actually very resilient as a result, since they operate a diverse mix with over capacity, in order to be able to generate power from what is available. Yet, we seem to be ahead of them in renewables and nuclear.

[SchumiStars]

The freshies from India really do screw the UK market up. If they helped keep the rate high it would be in the interest for everyone but alas it is a race to the bottom by being available at less than the advertised rate. This in turns means the agencies are likely to pick them, as the margin spread increases.

My biggest market is London and with more roles being remote working, then bob from Manchester can apply for a lower rate and get accepted.

I can't help feeling that the offices need filling with workers especially London. The cost of an office, the staff comuting all adds to the GDP of the country. Home based means we are spending less which then means we need less money to live on.

I really would love London to return to pre-covid days of full offices, restraunts and pubs. Would be glorious.

[eek]

The freshies from India really do screw the UK market up. If they helped keep the rate high it would be in the interest for everyone but alas it is a race to the bottom by being available at less than the advertised rate. This in turns means the agencies are likely to pick them, as the margin spread increases.

My biggest market is London and with more roles being remote working, then bob from Manchester can apply for a lower rate and get accepted.

I can't help feeling that the offices need filling with workers especially London. The cost of an office, the staff comuting all adds to the GDP of the country. Home based means we are spending less which then means we need less money to live on.

I really would love London to return to pre-covid days of full offices, restraunts and pubs. Would be glorious.

Sod all point going to the office if you spend all days on zoom / teams calls.

[dsc]

The freshies from India really do screw the UK market up. If they helped keep the rate high it would be in the interest for everyone but alas it is a race to the bottom by being available at less than the advertised rate. This in turns means the agencies are likely to pick them, as the margin spread increases.

My biggest market is London and with more roles being remote working, then bob from Manchester can apply for a lower rate and get accepted.

I can't help feeling that the offices need filling with workers especially London. The cost of an office, the staff comuting all adds to the GDP of the country. Home based means we are spending less which then means we need less money to live on.

I really would love London to return to pre-covid days of full offices, restraunts and pubs. Would be glorious.

Is there still a lot of remote positions from what is there on the market? I thought 90% moved over to hybrid, so a chap from the middle of nowhere will think twice as it's extra costs (especially when inside on a tulip rate).

[ladymuck]

Sod all point going to the office if you spend all days on zoom / teams calls.

Yep - one day a week I go into ConsultantCo offices and we have one meeting together and that's it. Another day a week, I may go into ClientCo offices and I'll sit there surrounded by a load of other consultants who are working on other programmes, have no idea who any of them are, and not actually meet F2F with the people I'm delivering to which is what would be the most productive use of my time there.

Now I'm down to 2 days a week, spread over 4 mornings, I don't really see any point travelling there unless I'm meeting with someone from ClientCo to reinforce my network.

[SchumiStars]

It's not beneficial working from home for the long run. The offices in London are empty, these would be usually generating a rental income for the landlords.

The train services including the tube are also suffering as well as the eatery's and pubs and culture. Everything is suffering as we are all aquainted with WFH.

2019 was the last onsite, office job I had. 5 years ago! I love being in the office, in London in the summer.

Companies WFH are saving money by not having an office. Effectively WFH means we have given them an office. The cost savings are massive which in turn means they don't have to earn as much and reduce their overheads.