Is voting BP likely to make Brexit more of less likely?

[d000hg]

As I see it, BP's best hope are Labour-Leave constituencies. On the face of it that's good for Leavers. However I wonder if BP MPs would be more likely to vote against Boris' deal, wanting No-Deal, than Labour MPs in strongly Leave seats are to reject the whip and vote for the deal.

Assuming a Tory government of course.

If you want Brexit then it seems to me pragmatically Boris' deal is better than risking no Brexit, even if you prefer no deal.

Anyone?

[DealorNoDeal]

It appears some Brexiters would prefer remain to Boris' deal, and some remainers would prefer "no deal" to Boris' deal.

It's all a bit

[Whorty]

As I see it, BP's best hope are Labour-Leave constituencies. On the face of it that's good for Leavers. However I wonder if BP MPs would be more likely to vote against Boris' deal, wanting No-Deal, than Labour MPs in strongly Leave seats are to reject the whip and vote for the deal.

Assuming a Tory government of course.

If you want Brexit then it seems to me pragmatically Boris' deal is better than risking no Brexit, even if you prefer no deal.

Anyone?

Labour voters, in the majority, voted to remain and NOT leave. So, by targeting Labour areas that voted leave, the BP vote will be mostly grabbing Tory voters. This will not help leave, but it will give Labour an even better chance of holding on to their seat.

Of course, the reverse of this is LibDems will take some of the Labour vote as remain voters may switch. But, speaking to Labour supporters I know, they will never support the LDs as they will never forgive them for going into government with the Tories.

BPX may win the odd seat, but most likely they will end up with nothing. They will weaken the Tories and threaten leaving the EU at all.

My prediction ... which let's face it is not worth the paper it's written on, is Tory win the most seats but no other parties will back them to form a government. The smaller parties, like SNP, LDs, will provide Corbyn support to form a minority government on a vote by vote basis. This will result in Labour being kept under control, and they will be forced to run a second ref of deal vs remain

Or the BXP will get a landslide majority .. who knows!

[d000hg]

Labour voters, in the majority, voted to remain and NOT leave. So, by targeting Labour areas that voted leave, the BP vote will be mostly grabbing Tory voters

But we can't look at in the majority only at individual constituencies with FPTP. There are a some of very pro-leave seats which are died in the wool red. In the north east for instance there are several seats where Tory are normally a distant 3rd after LD, where UKIP had a very strong presence.

I only know 'cos that's where I live, maybe it's only a handful but I'm sure on the NW you've got places like Rochester as well. Maybe even some Welsh seats, not really sure?

[Eirikur]

Don't expect the brexit simpletons to think too much, they do not have the mental ability to think tactically.

[JohntheBike]

But we can't look at in the majority only at individual constituencies with FPTP. There are a some of very pro-leave seats which are died in the wool red. In the north east for instance there are several seats where Tory are normally a distant 3rd after LD, where UKIP had a very strong presence.

I only know 'cos that's where I live, maybe it's only a handful but I'm sure on the NW you've got places like Rochester as well. Maybe even some Welsh seats, not really sure?

Welsh seats

Most Welsh seats are Labour of course and although the BP ousted the Labour MEP's in the EU elections, a GE is a whole different ball game. I would say that most Welsh Labour seats will remain Labour even though their constituents voted to leave in the referendum. Several sitting Welsh Labour MP's had majorities greater than all the opposing votes put together. It will be difficult to overturn such voter loyalty.

[d000hg]

Don't expect the brexit simpletons to think too much, they do not have the mental ability to think tactically.

It's the majority of forward thinking, smart Leavers I was considering.

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[sasguru]

It's the majority of forward thinking, smart Leavers I was considering.

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Good one.
You've mistakenly posted on the wrong thread though, you clearly meant to post here:

https://www.contractoruk.com/forums/...s-here-77.html

[Old Greg]

Johnson's Surrender Deal isn't real Brexit. Accept no imitations.

[d000hg]

Johnson's Surrender Deal isn't real Brexit. Accept no imitations.

Of course it is. Do you swallow everything Farage gives you?

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