Tomorrow's going to be interesting in Parliament

[sasguru]

I hope the Remainers fail in their bid to postpone the Brexit date/bring down the govt/or whatever they've got in mind.
The country needs a hard Brexit with the opportunists who supported it still in charge.
Then the entertainment will continue for those watching with interest from afar.

[jamesbrown]

Agree. Exciting times for politicos.

They won't fail, at least on numbers. There's 16 confirmed and 22 possible. Best bet is probably filibustering in the Lords (still won't work) or perhaps something really unconventional like an emergency budget to waste time (I think the gov't can initiate that independently, but all SOs are ultimately within the control of Parliament, I suppose).

Anyway, I think it's understood inside No. 10 that they won't fail.

I can only conclude from the continuous ramping of rhetoric and deselection threats that they want an election. It will have to occur before 31 Oct though, otherwise Parliament won't agree. Tricky ground for Johnson under those circs, unless they commit to No Deal (and even if they do).

Very unpredictable.

Brilliant to watch though.

[jamesbrown]

Current conspiracy doing the rounds is: dissolution motion for, say, 17 Oct ("Notwithstanding the FTPA,..."). Voted through on straight majority, no need for FTPA 2/3rds majority. Then, subsequently, the gov't uses prerogative powers to change the date to Oct 31. Now, that would be funny. Still, while Labour MPs are total cretins, they're not that stupid. Can't see any clever shenanigans working.

[sasguru]

I can only conclude from the continuous ramping of rhetoric and deselection threats that they want an election.

Yes that seem to be a distinct possibility.
And I wouldn;t like to predict the outcome

[jamesbrown]

Yes that seem to be a distinct possibility.
And I wouldn;t like to predict the outcome

Right, forget about the polls.

An election never ends up working out exactly as planned. The Brexit Party vote is stickier than they will have hoped. I don't see a Farage climbdown.

Another hung parliament and minority Tory gov't, albeit with a few less Tory remainers?

[sasguru]

Right, forget about the polls.

An election never ends up working out exactly as planned. The Brexit Party vote is stickier than they will have hoped. I don't see a Farage climbdown.

Another hung parliament and minority Tory gov't, albeit with a few less Tory remainers?

I wouldn't underestimate the Lib Dem surge
Agree it will be a hung Parliament though, albeit with a different, unpredictable, complexion to 2017.

[jamesbrown]

I wouldn't underestimate the Lib Dem surge

Bound to pick-up a good number of Tory and Labour remainers. Not sure they've reached that threshold where people think they can actually win though, which will hold them back. FPTP is brutal like that. I'd still expect the Lib Dems and Brexit Party to garner many fewer seats than the Tories or Labour, but who knows. Parliament could end-up looking distinctly more European w/ coalitions, ironically...

Imagine the market reaction to a coalition of Labour/SNP/independents.

[WTFH]

Imagine the market reaction to a coalition of Labour/SNP/independents.

That won't happen. The Brexit Party Ltd and its sole "person with responsibility" will take all 650 seats, pick up their guns and khakis and go defend the Irish border.

[TheCyclingProgrammer]

Gotta admit, this is the most exciting season of "Brexit" yet.

[jamesbrown]

Interesting...

Boris Johnson to call for snap election BEFORE October 31 Brexit date if he loses to rebels this week

Sounds plausible, but could also be an attempt to influence proceedings tomorrow (i.e., rebels will know they have only a few days left as MPs; but most of them don't care and many have already announced that they're standing down).