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"I can put any old tat in my sig, put quotes around it and attribute to someone of whom I've heard, to make it sound true."
- Voltaire/Benjamin Franklin/Anne Frank...
If the withdrawal bill doesn't go through the parliamentary session ends in failure. If the government can't get the Queen's speech through it falls.
It is highly likely that if the withdrawal bill fails that the Queen's speech also fails. A new Tory PM won't change the arithmetic.
That means in effect this vote will be a no confidence vote.
As explained by Theo Usherwood from LBC.
Be afraid ......
Hearing things on the interweb or on the radio doesn't represent an understanding.
There's nothing more to do before the summer recess.
Everything that happens afterwards is about whether the Tories fear No Deal or Korbyn more.
If the WAB fails, the PM will resign before the recess, the recess will happen, a new PM will be chosen for the Tory conference, the new PM will have a new policy platform (snowflakes will cry and gnash their teeth, comfort blanket exports will boom).
After the recess, the new PM will face a choice between seeking a No Deal "by accident" (i.e. "I don't want one, honest guv" ) or by advocating for it, in which case a GE will be needed (seems unlikely to me for the same reason). Obviously, the new session of Parliament will try to stop this in whatever way it can, but the new PM may prefer tactics that TM didn't prefer.
Either way, we're not into the territory of the gov't falling until much further down the line around, say, October 31 () at which point the Tories will have a stark choice between a hard brexit then or Korbyn then (followed by a good chance of Korbyn later, either way).
The idea that the gov't is going to fall in early June when the WAB fails is, well, cretinous.
Does anyone seriously believe that if the withdrawal bill fails for the final time in early June, and it will be the final vote, that parliament will simply go home and wait for the no deal on 31st October.
...and presumably Unicorns will be flying around outside Westminster.
Does anyone seriously believe that if the withdrawal bill fails for the final time in early June, and it will be the final vote, that parliament will simply go home and wait for the no deal on 31st October.
So, for the avoidance of doubt, your prediction is that the gov't will fall in the first two weeks of June, right?
Let's return to this in, say, one month in order to mock the cretin that was wrong. M'kay?
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