The big day is here

[jamesbrown]

As long as we don't live in "inneresting" times, I think we can proceed.

I'm fine with any of the conceivable unicorns of d00m that the "clever meanies" might devise, except for Old Greg's unicorns, because their manes are too fluffy.

Main thing to watch for tonight is the union of votes across all of the fantasy brexit options posited by the amendments to the main motion (particularly the Murrison amendment). If this union of votes is within, say, 50 votes of attracting a majority, then May will proceed on the basis that she can eventually get her fantasy brexit over the line. In other words, "nothing has changed" for another few weeks while she "renegotiates".

Oh wait, Murrison wasn't selected by the speaker. I'm shocked.



No place to hide now.

[BlasterBates]

AFAIK thre is no requirement for the EU to care about our politics, A50 stipulates we leave on 29.3. But in the real world it's reasonable to expect they would agree to a delay in case of a new government.

As to how a new government would fare, who can possibly tell.

I still think a grand coalition is a good option which then dissolves into a GE once agreement is reached. But this sounds far too practical to ever happen.

Indeed when May goes down this is exactly what will happen, whether May is prime minister and executes all of parliament's edicts or is pushed out and there's a GE remains to be seen. If she holds out for no deal, there will probably be a GE.

She made a huge mistake in pandering to the Eurosceptics. In the end you have to take the UK back to the stone age to satisfy them.

[meridian]

The big day is here

AFAIK thre is no requirement for the EU to care about our politics, A50 stipulates we leave on 29.3. But in the real world it's reasonable to expect they would agree to a delay in case of a new government.

If one of the major parties campaigns on a No Brexit platform, then perhaps. If both parties are campaigning for the same old unicorns, then why should the EU agree to any extension? The U.K. set the deadline, it’s the U.K. that doesn’t agree on what it wants - there’s a vague agreement on what the U.K. doesn’t want (May’s Deal) but they still have no idea on what they would renegotiate for.

The U.K. is not the EU’s problem any more, stop looking to them for solutions or to give us more time to figure out what we want.

[Old Greg]

Indeed when May goes down this is exactly what will happen, whether May is prime minister and executes all of parliament's edicts or is pushed out and there's a GE remains to be seen. If she holds out for no deal, there will probably be a GE.

She made a huge mistake in pandering to the Eurosceptics. In the end you have to take the UK back to the stone age to satisfy them.

The big mistake was calling the election.

[d000hg]

If one of the major parties campaigns on a No Brexit platform, then perhaps. If both parties are campaigning for the same old unicorns, then why should the EU agree to any extension? The U.K. set the deadline, it’s the U.K. that doesn’t agree on what it wants - there’s a vague agreement on what the U.K. doesn’t want (May’s Deal) but they still have no idea on what they would renegotiate for.

The U.K. is not the EU’s problem any more, stop looking to them for solutions or to give us more time to figure out what we want.

A no deal exit is not in the EU's interests either. It's less of an impact to them than us but it's still not what they want so it would be sensible to extend in the hope NewGov agrees to a deal because the timeframe simply isn't long enough to hold a GE and work things out, realistically.

[BlasterBates]

A no deal exit is not in the EU's interests either. It's less of an impact to them than us but it's still not what they want so it would be sensible to extend in the hope NewGov agrees to a deal because the timeframe simply isn't long enough to hold a GE and work things out, realistically.

Indeed extending article 50 would be no problem, there may have to be some quick EU summit to exclude the UK from the European elections, but that would be a lot less hassle compared to the number of emergency summits they'd need if there was no deal.

[OwlHoot]

But in the real world it's reasonable to expect they would agree to a delay in case of a new government. ..

They might indeed, but don't forget Article 50 is set in stone by an Act of Parliament (courtesy of that busibody Gina Miller you'll recall)

So the deadline can be amended or postponed only by another Act of Parliament, which will be tricky while Parliament is not there

[BlasterBates]

They might indeed, but don't forget Article 50 is set in stone by an Act of Parliament (courtesy of that busibody Gina Miller you'll recall)

So the deadline can be amended or postponed only by another Act of Parliament, which will be tricky while Parliament is not there

That presumes that parliament will dissolve itself, it can also install a new government through a vote of no confidence. Enough Tory rebels have threatened to resign the Tory whip to make that possible.

Parliament is sovereign.

[meridian]

They might indeed, but don't forget Article 50 is set in stone by an Act of Parliament (courtesy of that busibody Gina Miller you'll recall)

So the deadline can be amended or postponed only by another Act of Parliament, which will be tricky while Parliament is not there

That's odd, I don't recall Gina Miller voting on or implementing an Act of Parliament. Are you sure you understand British Parliamentary procedures?

[meridian]

A no deal exit is not in the EU's interests either. It's less of an impact to them than us but it's still not what they want so it would be sensible to extend in the hope NewGov agrees to a deal because the timeframe simply isn't long enough to hold a GE and work things out, realistically.

Sensible only for the UK due to UK government intransigence, there is little more that the EU can get out of the process so why drag it out?

The biggest blocker in May's Deal is the backstop. It only requires one Member State to veto any request for an extension (it needs to be unanimous). Why do you think Ireland would agree to any extension of A50 without explicit confirmation from the EU negotiators that the backstop remains?

And if there is no movement on the backstop, then why bother extending?

A UK GE is not the EU's problem.