Brexit Transition

[BlasterBates]

...to go on and on and on.....

Government plan to ask for flexible end date for transition

oh dear, be afraid,

be very afraid.

[jamesbrown]

Good, balanced, article by Martin Wolf in the FT today about where we’ll end up, namely CETA.

The implementation period seems likely to last no longer than 31 December 2020, but this is detail. The prospect of a GE is the ultimate barrier to any extended transition.

[WTFH]

...to go on and on and on.....

Government plan to ask for flexible end date for transition

oh dear, be afraid,

be very afraid.

That would tie in with the JRM mob letter saying that the UK government should not be tied to timings from the EU.

Although, has anyone else spotted that the name of his organisation is basically the opposite of what it is doing. It's not a "European Research Group", but a group that hates Europe.
They are probably hoping to dupe people into supporting them by saying how they are balanced, etc.
A bit like National Socialism. Both words, separately, are linked to left wing ideals of justice for all, help for all, etc, but was actually used by a group who were only interested in justice and help for people of the right skin colour, religion and passport colour.

[WTFH]

The prospect of a GE is the ultimate barrier to any extended transition.

No it's not, because the current government and its supporters are very good at spreading stories about anyone who opposes them. The smear campaigns will continue with them hoping to deflect from their failings. The old and doddery will lap it up as truth and we end up with a self-serving government who are clueless and the puppets of the financiers who pull their strings

[DimPrawn]

We will have a transition (ie. for all intents and purposes still in the EU) until Korbyn wins the landslide election victory, then we will fully leave the EU, and at that point enter oblivion.

Enjoy the relative calm of the next four years, and try to get as far away from the UK in the meantime.

[jamesbrown]

No it's not, because the current government and its supporters are very good at spreading stories about anyone who opposes them. The smear campaigns will continue with them hoping to deflect from their failings. The old and doddery will lap it up as truth and we end up with a self-serving government who are clueless and the puppets of the financiers who pull their strings

Sure it is There will be a few head explosions among the brextremists like Morgan and Soubry, threatening to leave the Tories, but the Lib Dem’s will offer them a rather, er, uninviting alternative.

[BlasterBates]

Good, balanced, article by Martin Wolf in the FT today about where we’ll end up, namely CETA.

The implementation period seems likely to last no longer than 31 December 2020, but this is detail. The prospect of a GE is the ultimate barrier to any extended transition.

The government aren't heading for CETA, they need something far more complicated or manufacturers crumble as a result of chaos at customs.

Sure they may eventually end up exhausted signing a CETA type deal, but not after many years wrangling on many complex issues. Incidentally CETA took 7 years, and although there may be some superficial similarities the details of the British deal will be completely different.

The Northern irish border is just one of many thousands of issues that make the British deal that much more complicated and why it simply can't be taken off the shelf.

[jamesbrown]

The government aren't heading for CETA, they need something far more complicated or manufacturers crumble as a result of chaos at customs.

Sure they may eventually end up exhausted signing a CETA type deal, but not after many years wrangling on many complex issues. Incidentally CETA took 7 years, and although there may be some superficial similarities the details of the British deal will be completely different.

The Northern irish border is just one of many thousands of issues that make the British deal that much more complicated and why it simply can't be taken off the shelf.

Right, so they “aren’t” but they “may”. Your second look seems to be consistent with informed opinion.

[BlasterBates]

Lets put it this way the day of freedom which was already put off until January 1st 2021, has now been indefinitely extended to prevent the immediate implosion of the Conservative government.

I think it is now abundantly clear the Tory government probably won't see Brexit through.

The only hope now for a clean Brexit is Henry Bolton.

[BlasterBates]

The most likely outcome is the slow death of the Tory government and a Labour government taking the UK into a Swiss style deal.