10 days...

[jamesbrown]

oh dear...

Britain will not meet EU's 10-day deadline to resolve Irish border issue, Liam Fox signals

What’s new? He’s just parroting HMG’s line that progress on the NI border requires an understanding of the final FTA. Fox always says everything in the most divisive way possible, but there’s nothing new here. That said, he should probably shut his trap, as the only way through Dec is a face saving fudge.

[meridian]

What’s new? He’s just parroting HMG’s line that progress on the NI border requires an understanding of the final FTA. Fox always says everything in the most divisive way possible, but there’s nothing new here. That said, he should probably shut his trap, as the only way through Dec is a face saving fudge.

Here's a novel idea, then - how about HMG provide the EU with their understanding of what the final trade agreement might be, then?

At the moment, you can't really blame the EU for holding a hard line, because the government has been clear so far that Brexit means Brexit. Even for a neutral observer it's clear that these two positions taken by the U.K. are not compatible.

[meridian]

I haven't seen it discussed anywhere, but even if the EU cuts some slack and opens a free border for movement of goods, this may cause international problems with the WTO - the U.K. and EU have obligations to show that there is not a favoured nation conflict of interest and that there are sufficient controls in place to verify this.

Oh look, it has been discussed somewhere:

So let’s imagine a belligerent United Kingdom decides, post a breakdown of negotiations, that it will not impose a customs or hard border. If it’s not going to have a customs checks, tariff checks, rules of origin checks, and the whole paraphernalia of dealing with the country with whom you are not sharing a customs union then it must give those exact same terms to every country in the world.

https://brianmlucey.wordpress.com/20...ld-the-border/

[stek]

PR (Permanent Residence?) got nothing to do with checkpoints on harder border, even citizens have to pass through it.


Liam 'Chlorine Chicken' Fox opens his gob again - https://www.theguardian.com/politics...deal-uk-brexit

I know, I was making the point that a hard border would hinder the right of British and Irish citizens to cross what will be the UK/EU border freely.

To me that means a hard border is impossible.

[SueEllen]

I know, I was making the point that a hard border would hinder the right of British and Irish citizens to cross what will be the UK/EU border freely.

To me that means a hard border is impossible.

A soft electronic border then as clearly there won't be any smuggling and there is sufficient time to out the technology in place....

[stek]

A soft electronic border then as clearly there won't be any smuggling and there is sufficient time to out the technology in place....

Crapita?

[jamesbrown]

Here's a novel idea, then - how about HMG provide the EU with their understanding of what the final trade agreement might be, then?

At the moment, you can't really blame the EU for holding a hard line, because the government has been clear so far that Brexit means Brexit. Even for a neutral observer it's clear that these two positions taken by the U.K. are not compatible.

May is apparently preparing a Florence II, so that’s going to come very soon after the Dec Council. But it’s well known that Cabinet hasn’t discussed this yet (), because she knows that resignations are likely. That said, I think we can all agree that the outlines of what May wants - some sort of pick ‘n mix association agreement - is a political fantasy. IMHO, it’s either EEA or WTO, and I assume the latter but, either way a GE is likely, and unavoidable for WTO. Shame, really, as I’d like to see some form of CETA+services, but the politics won’t allow it. Presumably Corbyn would go with EEA, not because he believes in it, but because he has bigger plans?

[meridian]

May is apparently preparing a Florence II, so that’s going to come very soon after the Dec Council. But it’s well known that Cabinet hasn’t discussed this yet (), because she knows that resignations are likely. That said, I think we can all agree that the outlines of what May wants - some sort of pick ‘n mix association agreement - is a political fantasy. IMHO, it’s either EEA or WTO, and I assume the latter but, either way a GE is likely, and unavoidable for WTO. Shame, really, as I’d like to see some form of CETA+services, but the politics won’t allow it. Presumably Corbyn would go with EEA, not because he believes in it, but because he has bigger plans?

It doesn't even need to be a firm decision from HMG to pass into December. There are a limited number of options available (SM+CU; SM only; CU only; no deal) - the govt just needs to list them out along with what the proposed solution would be for each of them.

Unfortunately, even listing out the possible solutions would lead to a split in the cabinet, resignations, mutiny, then probably a GE. So yes, I agree with you there.

Corbyn I think has bigger plans. Sit it out until Brexit splits the Tories. He's starting to realise that, despite his social leanings and aversion to the EU, a hard Brexit will hurt the working class more than the toffs. He just needs to figure out a way to explain it to the electorate in a way that doesn't get him branded a traitor by the right-wing rags (which in itself is a dreadful way for them to behave), and he'll step in and put a halt to it. Labour have no answers to what a successful Brexit looks like, either, so there's little chance they'll carry on with it if they can help it. In my opinion...

[AtW]

I know, I was making the point that a hard border would hinder the right of British and Irish citizens to cross what will be the UK/EU border freely.

To me that means a hard border is impossible.

Crossing freely does not mean no border check - it means having right to cross without being denied entry, queuing for 12 hours got nothing to do with this right.

Hard Brexit is the only possible Brexit - given that HMG is ready to sacrifice the golden egg hen (the City) it's hard to imagine they give two tulips about NI

[jamesbrown]

Corbyn I think has bigger plans. Sit it out until Brexit splits the Tories. He's starting to realise that, despite his social leanings and aversion to the EU, a hard Brexit will hurt the working class more than the toffs. He just needs to figure out a way to explain it to the electorate in a way that doesn't get him branded a traitor by the right-wing rags (which in itself is a dreadful way for them to behave), and he'll step in and put a halt to it. Labour have no answers to what a successful Brexit looks like, either, so there's little chance they'll carry on with it if they can help it. In my opinion...

Corbyn’s 20+ year record in Parliament clearly points to him being a hardcore Eurosceptic in the same mould as Benn and Skinner, but he seems willing to put that aside, to a point. Reneging on Brexit altogether would be a very different matter though - they’d lose too many seats in the North, and that calculus won’t change (there’s no “explaining it to them”) - which presumably leaves EEA. But you’re right that Labour is equally engaged in fantasy politics with their “a” customs union BS. They're only getting away with it because they aren’t being properly tested.