10 days...

[jamesbrown]

And that means another general election.

Unless the EU caves, yes, I think it does. There’s no way May could row back from her position on the CU, because “effective membership” would not be compatible with her policies on trade and the CET. Either way, this will all come to a head fairly soon. Varadkar knows his leverage is lost beyond Phase 1 and, even if he doesn’t survive a snap election, May has the more pressing deadline of the December Council. Absent “sufficient progress” there, she’s toast. Will Varadkar go nuclear?

[AtW]

And that means another general election.

Nope, they'd prefer to hang on for as long as possible...

[meridian]

Unless the EU caves, yes, I think it does. There’s no way May could row back from her position on the CU, because “effective membership” would not be compatible with her policies on trade and the CET. Either way, this will all come to a head fairly soon. Varadkar knows his leverage is lost beyond Phase 1 and, even if he doesn’t survive a snap election, May has the more pressing deadline of the December Council. Absent “sufficient progress” there, she’s toast. Will Varadkar go nuclear?

The EU doesn't need to cave, it hasn't created this problem.

[BrilloPad]

And that means another general election.

No way will the DUP vote against the Torys. That was £1.5bn down the drain.

[darmstadt]

No way will the DUP vote against the Torys. That was £1.5bn down the drain.

What hope is there for Britain if people can't keep up with current affairs, they already have done once: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...d-tuition-fees

[jamesbrown]

The EU doesn't need to cave, it hasn't created this problem.

That's a matter of perspective but, more importantly, irrelevant to how it is now resolved. No deal has always been a plausible outcome. My guess is that the EU won't cave directly, but will fudge it sufficiently that the problem is deferred to Phase 2 (i.e. the Irish gov't will cave on assurances). There's a plausible avenue for this, because the nature of the border will depend on the nature of the FTA. There will be a lot of pressure on the Irish gov't, but the EU won't proceed without them, so Varadkar really could go nuclear.

But anyone that thinks the EU is up for trading "degrees of access" to the SM in any material way is deluded, including the UK gov't. The EU will offer EEA/EFTA or CETA on the belief that, under pressure, they will choose EEA (either directly or following a general election). When HMG has fully internalized that CETA is the only option, the talks will end, because not even the remainers in HMG will accept a large financial settlement for CETA-style access. That's the problem with the financial settlement: HMG really appears to see it as a downpayment for terms/access, whereas the EU sees it as "settling a bill". Like I say, no deal has always been a plausible outcome, and it will either happen in the coming month or, more likely, next summer.

[SueEllen]

http://<br /> https://www.theguardia...y_to_clipboard

General Election?

[jamesbrown]

http://<br /> https://www.theguardi...y_to_clipboard

General Election?

Linky no worky.

I think this is the one you intended...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-brexit-chaos?

[SueEllen]

Linky no worky.

I think this is the one you intended...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-brexit-chaos?

Not sure while Guardian do crap links from mobile.

[Mordac]

Ukraine is not a EU member, there is hard border between it and Poland.

There will HAVE to be hard border if UK isn't part of the customs unions (and single market?) - EU got laws and obligations to countries that got trade deals with it, I am pretty certain under WTO rules customs would have to be enforced as otherwise it becomes a black hole.



Are you on drugs? EU did not want Brexit, it was UKs decision, so ANY real world practical problems (that were widely predicted) arising from this are solely the fault of UK.

And this is what they are angling for. If we stay in the CU, we don't actually leave the EU. EU saves face, UK look like they caved in. It won't happen. We're leaving, it's time the EU accepted that fact. Nobody likes being dumped, but they need to get over it...