10 days...

[AtW]

And this is what they are angling for. If we stay in the CU, we don't actually leave the EU. EU saves face, UK look like they caved in. It won't happen. We're leaving, it's time the EU accepted that fact. Nobody likes being dumped, but they need to get over it...

Yes we are.

And they did accept it.

Now you (or "we") need to accept that the locks have been changed too and we don't get the new key by default...

[Mordac]

Yes we are.

And they did accept it.

Now you (or "we") need to accept that the locks have been changed too and we don't get the new key by default...

Correct. We are not arguing about "getting the new key" we are arguing about why there needs to be a hard border in Ireland, and that is because the EU are insisting on it. Neither the UK nor the Irish govt is proposing a hard border, but it appears to be inevitable.

[SueEllen]

Correct. We are not arguing about "getting the new key" we are arguing about why there needs to be a hard border in Ireland, and that is because the EU are insisting on it. Neither the UK nor the Irish govt is proposing a hard border, but it appears to be inevitable.

Those are the rules of the EU.

When you join a club they have trading rules. When you leave the club then different rules apply to you.

This is the same way Norway and Sweden have different customs rules to Sweden and Finland.

[meridian]

Correct. We are not arguing about "getting the new key" we are arguing about why there needs to be a hard border in Ireland, and that is because the EU are insisting on it. Neither the UK nor the Irish govt is proposing a hard border, but it appears to be inevitable.

The UK is insisting on having control of it's immigration. By definition this cannot happen if there is no border between the U.K. and any other country - the U.K. would need to either impose a border, or redefine what it means by "control" of it's immigration (e.g. by defining that it means control, but only in Great Britain and not the U.K.; or by defining "immigration" as meaning ability to work - and putting processes in place for employers to check eligibility- rather than immigration checks at borders).

The UK is insisting that it is leaving all EU institutions, including the CU/SM. the EU wants to (rightly) know what the UK is planning so that the UK meets any customs obligations (which, in the worst case scenario, includes any WTO requirements).

[meridian]

That's a matter of perspective but, more importantly, irrelevant to how it is now resolved. No deal has always been a plausible outcome. My guess is that the EU won't cave directly, but will fudge it sufficiently that the problem is deferred to Phase 2 (i.e. the Irish gov't will cave on assurances). There's a plausible avenue for this, because the nature of the border will depend on the nature of the FTA. There will be a lot of pressure on the Irish gov't, but the EU won't proceed without them, so Varadkar really could go nuclear.

But anyone that thinks the EU is up for trading "degrees of access" to the SM in any material way is deluded, including the UK gov't. The EU will offer EEA/EFTA or CETA on the belief that, under pressure, they will choose EEA (either directly or following a general election). When HMG has fully internalized that CETA is the only option, the talks will end, because not even the remainers in HMG will accept a large financial settlement for CETA-style access. That's the problem with the financial settlement: HMG really appears to see it as a downpayment for terms/access, whereas the EU sees it as "settling a bill". Like I say, no deal has always been a plausible outcome, and it will either happen in the coming month or, more likely, next summer.

I disagree about perspective (from my perspective this has been a UK problem for 800 years... ) but largely agree with the rest.

I haven't seen it discussed anywhere, but even if the EU cuts some slack and opens a free border for movement of goods, this may cause international problems with the WTO - the U.K. and EU have obligations to show that there is not a favoured nation conflict of interest and that there are sufficient controls in place to verify this.

[jamesbrown]

I haven't seen it discussed anywhere, but even if the EU cuts some slack and opens a free border for movement of goods, this may cause international problems with the WTO - the U.K. and EU have obligations to show that there is not a favoured nation conflict of interest and that there are sufficient controls in place to verify this.

Yes, while the CTA is not in doubt, there's a legitimate question (w/r to goods) on MFN status. A related question is whether such an approach would be compatible with the treaties c.f. the protection of the external border (how would other EU countries that protect an external border react?), because the UK will become a third country.

In the long run, a clear decision will be required (whole UK within CU or EU relaxes their position), but it probably won't come until next summer, at which point there's a good chance of cabinet resignations and a GE. May is clinging to the idea that some form of "associate membership" will dig her our of this hole - something between EEA and CETA. She's desperately transparent in her language to Parliament about no longer being "full members" of the CU/SM, but it simply isn't going to be on offer w/ the red lines already drawn. It's EEA or CETA, and CETA probably means no deal, because there won't be an agreement on the financial settlement in that context.

[AtW]

Correct. We are not arguing about "getting the new key" we are arguing about why there needs to be a hard border in Ireland, and that is because the EU are insisting on it. Neither the UK nor the Irish govt is proposing a hard border, but it appears to be inevitable.

It's obvious why - prevention of black hole on the external EU border.

[stek]

Its not just the issue of the UK/ILR border though.

British and Irish citizens have always been non-foreign in each other’s countries, automatically holding PR.

Even from an EU-only perspective, it means removing a right that Irish EU citizens hold and more importantly, rely on.

[AtW]

British and Irish citizens have always been non-foreign in each other’s countries, automatically holding PR.

PR (Permanent Residence?) got nothing to do with checkpoints on harder border, even citizens have to pass through it.


Liam 'Chlorine Chicken' Fox opens his gob again - https://www.theguardian.com/politics...deal-uk-brexit

[AtW]

oh dear...

Britain will not meet EU's 10-day deadline to resolve Irish border issue, Liam Fox signals