A Brexit Thread from Someone who Didn't Vote

[mattfx]

What were our budget contributions going to be for the next 5-50 year? Increasing, Decreasing, the same? - Can only assume these would increase marginally.

Was there going to be an EU army? - this would be a good thing. Our armed forces are pathetically depleted due to enormous cuts

Were we going to retain our veto? - that's why we, the people, employ our politicians - to negotiate. Clearly they all need to be sacked.

Were we going to be forced into ever-closer union? - See my point on negotiation - circa £80-100,000k a year, 2 houses and some insane expenses should afford you people with a brain who can argue shouldn't it?

Were we going to have to bailout European banks? - London is the financial capital of the world, if you think we won't bail them out anyway you are being naive.

[Mordac]

So was the collapse of Monarch nothing to do with an increased cost base, resulting from weak sterling?



http://www.theguardian.com/business/...apse-explainer

If you dispute the Guardian analysis, please offer your own.

If the Graun is correct, why haven't all UK airlines gone tits up? An increase of £50m due to the fall in sterling (which sounds reasonably accurate) should be easily affordable, and most airlines hedge USD rates anyway. It's the £3bn for the new planes which pushed them over the edge, they should have waited until they had a stable business - Easyjet & Ryanair have been doing this (mostly brilliantly) for years, and Monarch thought they could just wander into the market and carry on as normal? As I said, it was poor management and greedy owners. Monarch was in trouble 3 years ago, well before anyone was even dreaming about Brexit. The loss of some of its routes in Tunisia and Egypt won't have helped, and they should have been thinking about consolidating, not expanding.
The Graun analysis is lazy and predictable, blame Brexit for everything and don't bother looking anywhere else.

[Bean]

Ah yes. Theresa's New State..

Yes but this time, it's the EU targeting referendums and nationalist politicians

[Bean]

If the Graun is correct, why haven't all UK airlines gone tits up? An increase of £50m due to the fall in sterling (which sounds reasonably accurate) should be easily affordable, and most airlines hedge USD rates anyway. It's the £3bn for the new planes which pushed them over the edge, they should have waited until they had a stable business - Easyjet & Ryanair have been doing this (mostly brilliantly) for years, and Monarch thought they could just wander into the market and carry on as normal? As I said, it was poor management and greedy owners. Monarch was in trouble 3 years ago, well before anyone was even dreaming about Brexit. The loss of some of its routes in Tunisia and Egypt won't have helped, and they should have been thinking about consolidating, not expanding.
The Graun analysis is lazy and predictable, blame Brexit for everything and don't bother looking anywhere else.

4 reasons for Monarch failing

includes £v$ (but every other airline hedges that don't they?)

3 other major reasons

[Bean]

What were our budget contributions going to be for the next 5-50 year? Increasing, Decreasing, the same? - Can only assume these would increase marginally.

The point is nobody knew before the vote

Was there going to be an EU army? - this would be a good thing. Our armed forces are pathetically depleted due to enormous cuts

NATO is still strong

Were we going to retain our veto? - that's why we, the people, employ our politicians - to negotiate. Clearly they all need to be sacked.

Not sure you understand the veto fully

Were we going to be forced into ever-closer union? - See my point on negotiation - circa £80-100,000k a year, 2 houses and some insane expenses should afford you people with a brain who can argue shouldn't it?

Not sure you understand the numbers and QVM

Were we going to have to bailout European banks? - London is the financial capital of the world, if you think we won't bail them out anyway you are being naive.

Not quite the same as directly funding a bailout fund that the EU holds and governs


They were questions for anyone that did actually vote tbf

[original PM]

What were our budget contributions going to be for the next 5-50 year? Increasing, Decreasing, the same? - Can only assume these would increase marginally.

Was there going to be an EU army? - this would be a good thing. Our armed forces are pathetically depleted due to enormous cuts

Were we going to retain our veto? - that's why we, the people, employ our politicians - to negotiate. Clearly they all need to be sacked.

Were we going to be forced into ever-closer union? - See my point on negotiation - circa £80-100,000k a year, 2 houses and some insane expenses should afford you people with a brain who can argue shouldn't it?

Were we going to have to bailout European banks? - London is the financial capital of the world, if you think we won't bail them out anyway you are being naive.

An EU army under whose command? and for what reason?

[northernladyuk]

I've made the IF the proportionate size for you. Surely the EU would have said already if that was an option....

The EU appears to be saying it is an option. I won't pretend to understand the mechanism for withdrawing Article 50, though.

Same as above - but is no-deal better than a bad deal?

Put it to a vote - that's democracy. Maybe people would rather stay once they see what leaving looks like. Maybe they wouldn't.

What were our budget contributions going to be for the next 5-50 year? Increasing, Decreasing, the same?
Was there going to be an EU army?
Were we going to retain our veto?
Were we going to be forced into ever-closer union?
Were we going to have to bailout European banks?

Some of the questions above have now been answered by JcJ and the like and no doubt will be steam-rolled through the MEPs, by the largest parties, by way of QVM (Qualified Voting Majority) - but it would be good to ask for what you believed to be the case BEFORE you voted!?

These are fair questions, as it is impossible to see the future. Mostly, I think these are Kipper paranoid fantasies - would the UK ever e forced into the Eurozone or Schengen? No. Can the UK lose its veto without agreeing? No. If QMV takes the EU down a path which is intolerable to the UK, then the UK can leave. It seems odd to leave in case the EU takes this direction. Then all of this has to be balanced against the Leave vote, and at the time of the referendum nobody could say whether leave meant inside or outside the customs union, single market, ECHR, agreements of freedom of movement...

So there really can be no objection against a democratic vote on the agreed settlement vs remaining in the EU.

[mattfx]

4 reasons for Monarch failing

includes £v$ (but every other airline hedges that don't they?)

3 other major reasons

The move away from long haul was at the same time they had a massive cash injection from investors - I'm not sure they had much choice in the matter. As for terror attacks and competition there's a whole thread on PPRUNE about how Ryanair are a bunch of scumbags, with O'Leary being the worst of them, describing how he effectively bends every rule in the book. So yeah, when trying to legitimately conduct a business in a professional manner against a man who elects to conduct his business on the shady side of practice, you're going to struggle. I don't disagree that there weren't other issues, but I do feel that the £ vs $ was the main culprit here.

[BlasterBates]

You're going to see this increasingly, as companies move their operations to the EU and go bust, reasons why it would have happened anyway.

Fact is the UK is now bottom of the league with respect to growth. Even Greece is growing faster than the UK and real Brexit hasn't yet begun.

[mattfx]

An EU army under whose command? and for what reason?

That's a topic worthy of a debate all by itself.