The Official Brexit Supreme Court thread.

[jamesbrown]

David Letwin said what you want to hear

He's not the Brexit minister, and what David Davies said today clearly contradicts what he said.

Or, rather, what you didn't want to hear

David Davis, you say? Can I ask the Rt. Hon. Gentleman why he doesn't agree with himself?

This government is looking at every option but the simple truth is that if a requirement of membership is giving up control of our borders, I think that makes it very improbable.

- David Davis, 06/09/16.

[PurpleGorilla]

indeed.....

United Kingdom Industrial Production YoY

in contrast to Germany:

https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-ca...f-a9728d5427dd

Germany's output is helped hugely by a weaker currency the result of other tulipzone members. Thing is, how long are these countries prepared to suffer before they reject this exploitation?

[eek]

Germany's output is helped hugely by a weaker currency the result of other tulipzone members. Thing is, how long are these countries prepared to suffer before they reject this exploitation?

Well they've done so without rejecting it for 10 years so I suspect they will continue doing so for years more as there isn't any easy way out

[BlasterBates]

Or, rather, what you didn't want to hear

David Davis, you say? Can I ask the Rt. Hon. Gentleman why he doesn't agree with himself?

- David Davis, 06/09/16.

indeed, he also said he was going to sign a trade deal with each EU country individually. What happened to that ?

He's done what many politicians do when they take on a ministry, a "U-Turn".

[PurpleGorilla]

Well they've done so without rejecting it for 10 years so I suspect they will continue doing so for years more as there isn't any easy way out

Absolutely no easy way out, it's only going to come from a big crisis, rather than the slowly poached frog scenario.

What are the odds of a second huge financial crash?

[xoggoth]

He's done what many politicians do when they take on a ministry, a "U-Turn"

True, but to be realistic it is only when they are in power that they get support and information, sometimes confidential, and they necessarily have to go with an agreed government line.

If would-be leaders never said anything they could not absolutely guarantee to do they would all be totally silent.

[sasguru]

Germany's output is helped hugely by a weaker currency the result of other tulipzone members. Thing is, how long are these countries prepared to suffer before they reject this exploitation?

Logic failure. We now have a (permanently?) weaker currency now with feck all results.
Probably because supply chains are so complex nowadays that manufacturers are having to pay more for subassemblies.

Germany has been an industrial powerhouse since the late 19th Century, the point at which it overtook Britain.
After the 2nd world war it rebuilt and by the 60s was doing what it does best - making and selling high quality products.
All of this predates the Euro.

[eek]

Logic failure. We now have a (permanently?) weaker currency now with feck all results.
Probably because supply chains are so complex nowadays that manufacturers are having to pay more for subassemblies.

Germany has been an industrial powerhouse since the late 19th Century, the point at which it overtook Britain.
After the 2nd world war it rebuilt and by the 60s was doing what it does best - making and selling high quality products.
All of this predates the Euro.

The logic fail is yours there. Germany's output would be 20% more expensive (at least) if it wasn't for the fact their currency is pegged by the weakness of the rest of europe.

The last time I saw a comparison of what the euro would look like were it split in 2 I think the German euro was estmated to be worth 125% of the price of the southern Europe euro and that will only get worse over time.

True Germany is without doubt an efficient manufacturing power house but its currently doing very well from selling in a currency that is far weaker than it would be if it wasn't also the currency of Italy, Spain and Greece.

[sasguru]

The logic fail is yours there. Germany's output would be 20% more expensive (at least) if it wasn't for the fact their currency is pegged by the weakness of the rest of europe.

The last time I saw a comparison of what the euro would look like were it split in 2 I think the German euro was estmated to be worth 125% of the price of the southern Europe euro and that will only get worse over time.

True Germany is without doubt an efficient manufacturing power house but its currently doing very well from selling in a currency that is far weaker than it would be if it wasn't also the currency of Italy, Spain and Greece.

My point is that Germany did perfectly well as a manufacturer and exporter for the many decades before the Euro when it had its own currency.
Apart from just after the 2nd world war, it has been outperforming us probably from the end of the 19th Century, without the benefit of the cheap raw materials and closed markets of the Empire.
This suggests that its strengths are rather more than a devalued currency.
And if a devalued currency is all it takes, we should be world champion exporters now
We should really look and see why and learn from it, rather than inventing glib explanations.

[eek]

My point is that Germany did perfectly well as a manufacturer and exporter for the many decades before the Euro when it had its own currency.
Apart from just after the 2nd world war, it has been outperforming us probably from the end of the 19th Century, without the benefit of the cheap raw materials and closed markets of the Empire.
This suggests that its strengths are rather more than a devalued currency.
And if a devalued currency is all it takes, we should be world champion exporters now
We should really look and see why and learn from it, rather than inventing glib explanations.

No - we are screwed as an economy because the economy was destroyed by specialization in areas in the 50s-70s (see Birmingham going from the city of 1000 trades to being seen as a car factory) followed by the decimation of industry in the 80s with little care as to how it those jobs were replaced. Our issue is a total lack of investment resulting in tired factories being run into the ground and then closed rather than maintained and forced to become ever more productive. You can see it still with the approach of employing people on minimum wage with overtime rather than investing to resolve productivity issues.

Germany does however make fixing things more difficult for us. If they can (and they can) sell things for £100 rather than £125 due to an artificially low currency its very hard to justify the investment required to start a competitor in the UK. That's not to say that the UK doesn't have problems (it does) it just means that those problems are exasperated by the advantages Germany has over the rest of the EU zone.

And if you think we have problems look at Italy where its now 10 years of zero growth...