[Merged]Brexit stuff (part 2)

[PurpleGorilla]

The autumn budget and the £124bn black hole has not changed my views on brexit. Full steam ahead!

[NotAllThere]

Do you have a PhD?

I know a lot doctors! You may call be Dr NAT.

...Switzerland is meant to allow free movement of people but in fact only allows free movement of labour - you can't just move there without a job, nor can you stay if you lose your job and haven't got one after a certain period of time (AFAIK, still researching this prepatory to moving)....

For EU citizens, there's essentially freedom of movement. You can move here without a job, and you can stay here if you lose a job. You don't qualify for social help for a few years, so no benefits initially. There are moves afoot to be able to prevent people who end up on social continue to draw on it after a number of years, but that will almost certainly result in legal challenges, as it conflicts with various laws.

[jamesbrown]

Having worked at various universities for many years before I sold out, I'd say the intelligence of the average Ph.D. (at a good university) is far above average, but I agree that intelligence is not the overriding factor that will allow you to complete a Ph.D., regardless of subject area. At top (e.g. Russell Group) universities, a minimum (high) degree of intelligence is needed, but love for the research and commitment are probably more important. The majority of unsuitable candidates are weeded out early on (end of year 1). As with many things in life, it ain't for everyone.

[Flashman]

[sasguru]

Makes me larf, these optimistic forecasts.

This is going to turn into the mother of all cock ups.

[GB9]

Makes me larf, these optimistic forecasts.

This is going to turn into the mother of all cock ups.

Let's see.

OBR Growth forecast, slightly lower for the next 2 years and then back to where it was forecast without Brexit.

In the meantime Germany manages a pathetic 0.2% Q3 rise. This compared to the UK Q3 growth of 0.5%.

And Germany is supposed to be one of the stronger elements of the EU basket.

No wonder the German's are panicking for Brexit clarity. They are screwed without us.

Forgot to mention, where's the recession gone?

[tomtomagain]

The predictions industry has been in a bit of pickle of late.

• Didn't predict a Tory overall win
• Didn't predict BREXIT
• Didn't predict Trump
• Did predict immediate recession
• Did predict fall in employment
• Did predict rise in inflation

So what are they predicting for:

• Austrian Election
• Italian Referendum
• French Election

Where's the next big shock coming from?

[BlasterBates]

If Brexit is so successful, why is there:

A 122 Billion Black Hole in the Budget

and

dwindling growth, slow trade, lower pay and austerity stretching into the late 2020s.

[jamesbrown]

If Brexit is so successful, why is there:

A 122 Billion Black Hole in the Budget

and

If macroeconomic forecasting is so successful, why was Q3 GDP 0.6% higher than HMT's "shock scenario" and 1.5% higher than their "extreme shock scenario"?

Hint: macroeconomic forecasting (especially by the OBR) is absolute bollocks

[GB9]

If Brexit is so successful, why is there:

A 122 Billion Black Hole in the Budget

and

There isn't.

Next.