Jim Mellon - Pro Brexit

[woohoo]

You need to check the correlation between talking-point skepticism and Euroskepticism.

One does not have to be a Euroskeptic to think Greece is still in serious economic difficulty. The EU assistance has neither been a total disaster (there do begin to be signs of life) nor a success to brag about (it's still a mess). The only reason anyone would argue either of those positions is to bolster a political point of view.

How many years do you think Greece will have to enforce austerity? Do you think it will be able to sustain and increase its budget surplus? If it doesn’t do you think it will still find money from private investors.

Do you think they will be able to pay off its Eu debt? Do you think they will need more bailout money?

I dont think pointing out its massive issues are arguing a political point. My issue with the Eu is the way they handled the initial crisis and the crappy plan put in place.

My other issue is that the banks in German and France have been sneekly recapitalised by the bailout to Greece. Most of the bailout money went to German and French banks.

I do hope eventually Greece will improve. But I think it could be sooner and less painful.

[woohoo]

..ah so you're back in the discussion, but no rebuttal, just a flailing around rather aimlessly.

I think the value of my Greek portfolio says it all really.

I’ve answered all your question bb, you just ain’t got the whereabouts to understand.

Yes your Greek portfolio is a great indication, well done bb.

[BlasterBates]

I’ve answered all your question bb, you just ain’t got the whereabouts to understand.

Yes your Greek portfolio is a great indication, well done bb.

No you haven't, you simply went off sulking.

But now you're back you can go ahead and answer them.

[BlasterBates]

You need to check the correlation between talking-point skepticism and Euroskepticism.

One does not have to be a Euroskeptic to think Greece is still in serious economic difficulty. The EU assistance has neither been a total disaster (there do begin to be signs of life) nor a success to brag about (it's still a mess). The only reason anyone would argue either of those positions is to bolster a political point of view.

It has a budget surplus, growth of over 1% and falling unemployment.

You couldn't expect for a better outcome considering where it was in 2012.

Moody's issued a press release upgrading the credit rating and said this:

The ongoing reform effort is slowly starting to bear fruit in the economy,

The trouble is the Eurosceptics need Greece as an example of why the EU doesn't work, but contrary to their expectations coloured by prejudice Greece is doing well.

[BlasterBates]

My advice to Eurosceptics is stop arguing about Greece otherwise they'll have egg on their face.

[WordIsBond]

How many years do you think Greece will have to enforce austerity? Do you think it will be able to sustain and increase its budget surplus? If it doesn’t do you think it will still find money from private investors.

A. I don't have any clue how many years. Too many variables.
B. The budget surplus is sustainable as long as there is a political will in government, the people put up with it rather than electing a populist to blow up the current approach, the interest rates are kept artificially low, and the demographic problem mentioned above doesn't blow up.
C. They are getting money from private investors now. There will likely always be people who are willing to take some risk if the reward is great enough.

Do you think they will be able to pay off its Eu debt? Do you think they will need more bailout money?

A. See my A and B answers above.
B. In my view they are already getting more bailout money with their current debt terms. I suspect that, at least, will continue to be needed for a long time to come, if the current path continues to be followed. Whether it will be or not, I don't know.

I dont think pointing out its massive issues are arguing a political point. My issue with the Eu is the way they handled the initial crisis and the crappy plan put in place.

There was no good plan to put in place, IMO. It was either austerity, blow up the whole EMU, or Greece drop out or get kicked out of EMU. With some sympathy for the Greek people, this was self-inflicted. They tolerated corruption and irresponsible government on a massive scale for far too long, and they pay a price for it now. Yes, it's a crappy plan, but when they chose to stay in the Euro I'm not persuaded much of anything else was workable.

And of course, you weren't just pointing out the issues, you were arguing EU incompetence, etc. Can't take an isolated post out of the context of your other posts. I think there are many glorious examples of EU incompetence, arrogance, and waste you could cite, but I'm not persuaded that their handling of Greece could have been substantively improved, unless you think Greece should have been forced out of the Euro so they could devalue themselves out of their mess.

Ultimately, I think it's unfair to blame Brussels for Greece's problems. If they did anything really wrong, it was letting Greece join the Euro in the first place when it should have been obvious they needed to clean up their mess first.

My other issue is that the banks in German and France have been sneekly recapitalised by the bailout to Greece. Most of the bailout money went to German and French banks.

The banks were good soldiers and supported the Euro project by loaning to the PIGS. They weren't going to be allowed to go to the wall over it, because the EU still needs banks to be good soldiers, and none would be in future if they won't be backed up. Like it or not, that's reality.

I do hope eventually Greece will improve. But I think it could be sooner and less painful.

The only tried and tested methods to get back on your feet quickly are to default and start fresh, or to devalue your currency (effectively a default by destroying the value of the debt). Neither was an option in EMU.

[WordIsBond]

Moody's issued a press release upgrading the credit rating and said this:

You do realise that B1 is several notches below the junk bond ratings threshold, don't you? Oh, sorry, we've gone all modern and want to be nice so we don't say 'junk' anymore, we say 'high-yield.' Which means they have to pay a high yield because they are junk.

It's right there with Angola and Uzbekistan.

[BlasterBates]

You do realise that B1 is several notches below the junk bond ratings threshold, don't you? Oh, sorry, we've gone all modern and want to be nice so we don't say 'junk' anymore, we say 'high-yield.' Which means they have to pay a high yield because they are junk.

Of course, the country was bankrupt, that's why there was a bail out. They recently issued bonds at an effective rate of 3.9% whereas Angola's issue last year was more like 8.5%. This means they can raise capital at reasonable interest rates.

Are you suggesting Greece was at investment grade before the bail out ?

Is that the best you can do?

[Whorty]

Since this is the Brexit forum, which is primarily intended for slagging people off and over-the-top rhetoric.....

My go then

The other options of which I'm aware are euthanising pensioners

It would go towards solving the Brexit problem too .... 2nd ref can be run and remain will come out on top ..... win-win

slashing pension payouts ....

Their vote on Brexit is costing us billions ..... I see no problem with this

significantly incentivising childbirth .....

Humans breed too much. We are a vermin on the planet. Another good idea

Some great ideas there. Solves brexit and solves our money problems in one fell swoop

[WordIsBond]

Your problem is that you want less breeding but you want to euthanise the one segment of the population that are not breeding and aren't going to be. We really are going to have to broaden our perspective on this thing.

We could euthanise climate change protestors. They breed, you know, or will be breeding soon. And they are expensive because of policing costs, environmental regulations, and the fact that most of them probably don't work (if they did they wouldn't have time to protest) so we could slash welfare costs as well. If we got rid of them all we could slash the tax on petrol and boost the economy.

I'm open to other suggestions.

I won't accept, because of the forum we're in, Remainers or Brexiteers. This forum is for slagging them off, not bumping them off. If a Remainer or Brexiteer should happen to fall into our euthanasia pool, that's permissible, but we can't push them into it just because of that. There has to be another reason. That lets everyone make suggestions.

As some day it may happen that a victim must be found,
I've got a little list — I've got a little list
Of society offenders who might well be underground,
And who never would be missed — who never would be missed!
...
And apologetic statesmen of a compromising kind,
Such as — What d'ye call him — Thing'em-bob, and likewise — Never-mind,
And 'St— 'st— 'st— and What's-his-name, and also You-know-who —
The task of filling up the blanks I'd rather leave to you.
But it really doesn't matter whom you put upon the list,
For they'd none of 'em be missed — they'd none of 'em be missed!