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Jim Mellon - Pro Brexit

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    #81
    Originally posted by WordIsBond View Post
    In case anyone cares, Greece, despite some recent mild growth, has a GDP per capita approximately 60% of what it was in 2008 and still only about 90% of what it was in 2014. Greek unemployment is still at 18%, youth unemployment over 40%.
    So it's still pretty ****ed then?

    Comment


      #82
      Originally posted by original PM View Post
      So it's still pretty ****ed then?
      As is usually the case, it's neither as bad as described by those whose political agenda is benefited by it being bad, nor as good as described by those whose political agenda is benefited by it being good.

      There's been some recent growth. It's still a mess.

      There's been some improvement in unemployment. It's still a nightmare.

      They've been able to borrow on the open market at decent rates recently. But the debt to GDP ratio is still over 175%.

      The Greek population is down between 2-3% over the last ten years. That is partly due to emigration. The largest factor is a very low birth rate, partly because of the emigration of the younger generations and partly because people can't afford children. In the wake of Greece's financial crisis, where have all the children gone? | The Independent

      That, more than current economic/debt statistics, is what is going to destroy Greece. When today's middle-aged workers become pensioners, there won't be enough workers to support them. The demographic disaster would be looming even if the debt were completely written off. The only way to solve it is to solve the youth unemployment so that young people want to stay, those who have left want to return, and young people from elsewhere in the EU want to immigrate there.

      Comment


        #83
        Originally posted by WordIsBond View Post
        That, more than current economic/debt statistics, is what is going to destroy Greece. When today's middle-aged workers become pensioners, there won't be enough workers to support them. The demographic disaster would be looming even if the debt were completely written off. The only way to solve it is to solve the youth unemployment so that young people want to stay, those who have left want to return, and young people from elsewhere in the EU want to immigrate there.
        That's the basic failing of the current financial mentality of many countries. To pay for the pensions and healthcare of the old requires an increase in younger people paying taxes.
        If there is not an increase in the population and an increase in work, then there isn't an increase in taxes to pay for it all.
        Also, if the younger ones have less disposable income (due to the higher cost of living), then there is less money going back into the system.

        The current model works well if you have either a war every couple of decades that wipes out a lot of 30-60 year olds, or epidemics that wipe out large parts of the population over 50.
        These then provide the reset switch to allow the model to continue.

        Without a reset, the model fails.
        I'm perfect, in a very specific and limited way.
        Hands... out infractions
        Face... the music
        Space... between the ears

        Comment


          #84
          Originally posted by WTFH View Post
          That's the basic failing of the current financial mentality of many countries. To pay for the pensions and healthcare of the old requires an increase in younger people paying taxes.
          If there is not an increase in the population and an increase in work, then there isn't an increase in taxes to pay for it all.
          Also, if the younger ones have less disposable income (due to the higher cost of living), then there is less money going back into the system.

          The current model works well if you have either a war every couple of decades that wipes out a lot of 30-60 year olds, or epidemics that wipe out large parts of the population over 50.
          These then provide the reset switch to allow the model to continue.

          Without a reset, the model fails.
          Since this is the Brexit forum, which is primarily intended for slagging people off and over-the-top rhetoric, it is fair game for me to now say that you are advocating war for economic benefit.

          You're right, of course. The other options of which I'm aware are euthanising pensioners (also morally reprehensible), significantly increasing retirement ages (also morally dubious), slashing pension payouts (also dubious), encouraging mass immigration (also can be morally problematic and only ends up deferring and shifting the problem), and significantly incentivising childbirth (politically unlikely due to environmentalism concerns).

          The only thing we're doing is slowly pushing up the retirement age (far better than big increases) and continually increasing the tax burden (directly or indirectly) on the working population. That's also dubious because it continually increases the divide between pensioners and workers. Today's workers have to pay far more than today's pensioners had to pay to fund those pensions and there's a significant risk they won't receive the same by retirement.

          We could all become Mormons or devout Catholics or Boris Johnson and have lots of children.

          Comment


            #85
            Originally posted by WordIsBond View Post
            Since this is the Brexit forum, which is primarily intended for slagging people off and over-the-top rhetoric, it is fair game for me to now say that you are advocating war for economic benefit.

            You're right, of course. The other options of which I'm aware are euthanising pensioners (also morally reprehensible), significantly increasing retirement ages (also morally dubious), slashing pension payouts (also dubious), encouraging mass immigration (also can be morally problematic and only ends up deferring and shifting the problem), and significantly incentivising childbirth (politically unlikely due to environmentalism concerns).

            The only thing we're doing is slowly pushing up the retirement age (far better than big increases) and continually increasing the tax burden (directly or indirectly) on the working population. That's also dubious because it continually increases the divide between pensioners and workers. Today's workers have to pay far more than today's pensioners had to pay to fund those pensions and there's a significant risk they won't receive the same by retirement.

            We could all become Mormons or devout Catholics or Boris Johnson and have lots of children.
            Why is significantly raising retirement age morally dubious? People used to die a few years after retirement on average. Raising retirement age is necessary to make retirement sustainable. However governments and businesses should look at some kind of tapering off of the weekly hours people work and a tapering in of retirement entitlements, so there is no longer a cliff edge.

            Comment


              #86
              Originally posted by WordIsBond View Post
              In case anyone cares, Greece, despite some recent mild growth, has a GDP per capita approximately 60% of what it was in 2008 and still only about 90% of what it was in 2014. Greek unemployment is still at 18%, youth unemployment over 40%.
              There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

              Here are some more statistics, Greece GDP.



              Notice the "bubble" shape just before the Greek crisis. The question you have to ask yourself is, is GDP pushed up by government loans actually sustainable ?

              Greece GDP is higher than where it was in 2002, and maybe the "bubble" inbetween wasn't due to real growth and had Greece not embarked on profligate spending it would probably be where it is today but without all that economic pain inbetween.

              Growth rate between 2001 and 2019 is roughly the same as it was during 1990's.
              I'm alright Jack

              Comment


                #87
                Originally posted by WordIsBond View Post
                Since this is the Brexit forum, which is primarily intended for slagging people off and over-the-top rhetoric, it is fair game for me to now say that you are advocating war for economic benefit.
                Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries
                I'm perfect, in a very specific and limited way.
                Hands... out infractions
                Face... the music
                Space... between the ears

                Comment


                  #88
                  Originally posted by original PM View Post
                  So it's still pretty ****ed then?
                  not really

                  Greece is the best performing stock market in Europe

                  Greece’s GDP has rebounded thanks to a surge in exports, which reached an all-time high of 3144.50 EUR Million in October of 2018; and a surgein tourism revenues, which also reached an all-time high of 3601.30 EUR Million in August of 2018.
                  I have my money where my mouth is, and my Greek portfolio is doing well.

                  I'm alright Jack

                  Comment


                    #89
                    I find it quite amusing how Eurosceptics bang on about Greece whilst its economy powers ahead making a mockery about their claims.

                    If they want to worry about an economic basket case they need to look a little closer to home.

                    I'm alright Jack

                    Comment


                      #90
                      Originally posted by WTFH View Post
                      Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries
                      That's not his real father.

                      Comment

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