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Reply to: What do I want for my birthday?
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Previously on "What do I want for my birthday?"
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I'm in two minds, and although I might opine a fair bit, I'm rarely correct and make a lot of what I say up.Originally posted by suityou01 View PostYou are right. Do we agree this is unlikely to spiral though?
The risks run quite a wide range.
- There's the chance for civil war if Crimea want full independence and Kiev won't let go.
- What if Crimea vote to rejoin Russia and Kiev says no, Crimeans escalate and Russia steps in "to protect the civilians"?
- Russia decides that the EU / NATO are all talk, so roll into Crimea as they did Georgia. How do EU / NATO respond then? Are they going to keep allowing Russia to do this time after time?
Those are a few things off the top of my head, and all centered around the Crimea. Russia won't be happy if Ukraine as a whole turn back to the EU, but how they work to prevent that is another matter.
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Crimea also has the largest group of ethnic Russians also, which might explain some of it. Don't forget that Sebastapol is in Crimea which is a major Russian navy base and they just extended the lease on it until 2051 or so. I think that might play a role in it as well...Originally posted by Ticktock View PostNot quite.
Crimea was already an autonomous region. They are saying "Just because you changed your government in Kiev, don't think you can come down here and overrule our autonomy."
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Putin is quite keen to build a "free trade zone" to rival the EU out of ex-USSR countries. Unfortunately he doesn't seem to realise that free trade zones that work work because you have an overarching rule of law. The sort of cronyism that Russian business seems to favour simply isn't suited to that sort of arrangement.Originally posted by suityou01 View PostTit for tat. They in Crimea are saying that the current government are not legit, so we can take power illegitimately as well. This is a complex game of chess and Putin knows exactly what he is doing. Putin is not in favour of any kind of global conflict, so I suggest not worrying overly.
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You are right. Do we agree this is unlikely to spiral though?Originally posted by Ticktock View PostNot quite.
Crimea was already an autonomous region. They are saying "Just because you changed your government in Kiev, don't think you can come down here and overrule our autonomy."
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Not quite.Originally posted by suityou01 View PostTit for tat. They in Crimea are saying that the current government are not legit, so we can take power illegitimately as well. This is a complex game of chess and Putin knows exactly what he is doing. Putin is not in favour of any kind of global conflict, so I suggest not worrying overly.
Crimea was already an autonomous region. They are saying "Just because you changed your government in Kiev, don't think you can come down here and overrule our autonomy."
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Tit for tat. They in Crimea are saying that the current government are not legit, so we can take power illegitimately as well. This is a complex game of chess and Putin knows exactly what he is doing. Putin is not in favour of any kind of global conflict, so I suggest not worrying overly.Originally posted by OwlHoot View Post
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2014-02-27 Pro-Russian Gunmen Seize Ukraine Crimean Parliament; Russia Puts Jets On High AlertOriginally posted by suityou01 View PostLittle more than sabre rattling.
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2014-02-26 - NATO Responds To Russian Military Drill, Backs "Inviolability" Of Ukraine FrontiersOriginally posted by OwlHoot View PostI'd ask for a wilderness survival shelter, in case the Ukraine situation gets out of hand ..
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That looks safeOriginally posted by Uncle Albert View PostGet yourself a motorbike and an organ donor card.

Official website of LOTUS MOTORCYCLES | C-01 | powered by motioncompany
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you the same as me when seeing a skimply dressed 18 year old - mmm wonder what her mum looks like?Originally posted by zeitghostFTFY.
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Get yourself a motorbike and an organ donor card.

Official website of LOTUS MOTORCYCLES | C-01 | powered by motioncompany
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I just found my old one which has been stuck in a box the last couple of years. Forgot to sell it when we got rid of all the Larp kit before we moved to cloggers.Originally posted by Halo Jones View Postdeinde ad id, quod suus : hmm it could work
I have asked BGG for a complete air brush kit for my birthday
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