• Visitors can check out the Forum FAQ by clicking this link. You have to register before you can post: click the REGISTER link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below. View our Forum Privacy Policy.
  • Want to receive the latest contracting news and advice straight to your inbox? Sign up to the ContractorUK newsletter here. Every sign up will also be entered into a draw to WIN £100 Amazon vouchers!

You are not logged in or you do not have permission to access this page. This could be due to one of several reasons:

  • You are not logged in. If you are already registered, fill in the form below to log in, or follow the "Sign Up" link to register a new account.
  • You may not have sufficient privileges to access this page. Are you trying to edit someone else's post, access administrative features or some other privileged system?
  • If you are trying to post, the administrator may have disabled your account, or it may be awaiting activation.

Previously on "Belgium and UK have the highest COVID case fatality rates (CFR)"

Collapse

  • shaunbhoy
    replied
    Originally posted by Old Greg View Post
    Nursing and care home deaths are the elephant in the room. Not just in the UK.
    Rubbish!! Elephants are not allowed in care homes, even when the lockdown is eased I doubt you will see many of them. They eat all the buns and break the stair lifts

    HTH

    sasguru

    Leave a comment:


  • darmstadt
    replied
    Cut and pasted but can't find the original now:

    Germany has been held up as an example of where Europe got the response to tackling the coronavirus right, despite having a bigger population than the United Kingdom.


    The European country has declared its coronavirus outbreak under control, as it prepares to take its first steps out of lockdown next week, with a partial reopening of schools and smaller shops.

    “The infection numbers have sunk significantly, especially the relative day-by-day increase,” said the German health minister Jens Spahn, which has seen just a 3% mortality rate compared to 13% in the UK.

    It has left questions about how the UK managed to gets its approach so wrong by comparison.


    One expert, BBC Newsnight’s international editor Gabriel Gatehouse says that the UK was mirroring the country until a policy change on March 12th.

    He explained: “More testing just means Germany just has a better picture of what’s going on, which means they can be a little bit more confident in lifting some of those restrictions, knowing if they see the infection rate go up again, they can act in good time.”


    He continued: “Public Health England and the Germans worked together on developing one of the first tests for coronavirus - that was back in January - and then both the UK and Germany were doing what they call ‘community testing’ and contact tracing. Basically testing people who were not in hospital, people who had milder symptoms, and then quarantining them and people that they’ve been in contact with.


    “Now Germany did a lot more of that than we did, but we were also doing it, until there was a policy change on 12th March.

    “This was the day when the prime minister announced we were moving from the containment phase - i.e stopping the spread - to the policy of delay, basically delaying the peak to try and take the pressure off the NHS.

    “This was when the prime minister - I think the headline figure was - telling people with a mild fever or cough to stay at home for seven days. But potentially the much more significant change of policy was articulated by Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, who essentially said that on the 12th March that community testing and contact tracing would stop.”


    On that day Whitty said the government would pivot its testing capacity from the community to focus on testing in hospital instead.

    Gatehouse pointed out that the Germans “also pivoted from contain to delay but they never stopped the testing”.

    He pointed out that virologists in Germany always believed it would be “one of the main tools” to contain the spread and “get a clear picture to understand what is going on”.

    He said it was presented as a “policy change” but it was also to do with “capacity”, and the British were now “basically going back to a policy of community testing” because of the 100,000 target health secretary Matt Hancock has referenced but said “the actual reality is lagging behind”.
    As has been pointed out elsewhere, the UK government have been playing 'macho' with the figures...

    Leave a comment:


  • Whorty
    replied
    Originally posted by Old Greg View Post
    Nursing and care home deaths are the elephant in the room. Not just in the UK.
    Elephants in care homes? No wonder they're having problems with PPE ....

    Leave a comment:


  • xoggoth
    replied
    Not great news here about Sweden's more relaxed approach. (Unless you're one the many who wants a cull of us old farts)

    Anger in Sweden as elderly pay price for coronavirus strategy | World news | The Guardian

    Better news about Portugal. Credits faster reaction to the problem and an improved health service in recent years.

    Swift action kept Portugal's coronavirus crisis in check, says minister | World news | The Guardian
    Last edited by xoggoth; 19 April 2020, 18:39.

    Leave a comment:


  • darmstadt
    replied
    Originally posted by sasguru View Post
    In Germany I am told hospitals are empty, their expected surge didn't happen and they have the highest ratio of ICU and hospital beds in Europe.
    I suspect that certain figures for Germany will go up, in fact they already are. The number of infections and deaths are already slowly increasing although this may plateau out soon but the good news is that the number of recoveries is going up at a higher curve than infections. The infection rate is now below 0,7 which is very good.

    Leave a comment:


  • BlasterBates
    replied
    Originally posted by sasguru View Post

    In Germany I am told hospitals are empty, their expected surge didn't happen and they have the highest ratio of ICU and hospital beds in Europe.
    Indeed heard from a friend of mine who is a nurse working through an agency, her services are not required. The wards are empty.

    Leave a comment:


  • sasguru
    replied
    Originally posted by rogerfederer View Post
    Xoggoth is wrong in another way.

    The statistic mentioned has nothing to do with testing, .
    Actually it has.
    The CFR denominator is patients tested positive for Covid.
    Xog has a point that the CFR could be higher if there is low testing or testing only for very ill patients.
    Hence my disclaimer in the first post, that these things will come out in the wash.
    But we can already see that some countries have coped with it better - the biggest mistake in the UK was postponing lockdown when every day mattered.
    Cheltenham, anyone?

    Leave a comment:


  • rogerfederer
    replied
    Originally posted by sasguru View Post
    No. The reason for the high rates of death in Belgium is that (1) half of all COVID deaths are in care and nursing homes and (2) they are recording those deaths, unlike the Uk.

    Not in Belgium. They are aware of and recording those deaths and heads are beginning to roll.
    Xoggoth is wrong in another way.

    The statistic mentioned has nothing to do with testing, in fact the stats are: number of covid19 deaths per 100000 of the population. The latter 100000 is not tested cases, it's just an easier way of comparing countries without looking at the testing ratio.

    Originally posted by xoggoth View Post
    Belgium and the UK are highest in the the number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases. This could simply be because we are not testing as many, only the more serious cases. I would have thought the more meaningful figure is deaths per 100,000 population for which we are well behind Belgium, Spain, Italy and France.

    Covid19 positive death cases (excluding care homes in England) per 100000 of the general entire population regardless of testing status (can be extrapolated to the full country size.) This means that it doesn't matter how many people outside of the hospital setting are untested, as those will generally make it to a hospital if they have severe illness and there if dying there will count towards the total number of deaths per 100000 of the general population.

    Scotland is including deaths in which covid19 is mentioned on the death certificate, so the NRS (National Records of Scotland) publication is a good guide to the true number of deaths in Scotland as it includes the crucial parameters from inside and outside of the hospital in which Covid19 is mentioned at all on the death certificate, even if it's not cited as the cause of death; this doesn't involve testing the patient after they've died in a care home or at home, but instead just relying on the GP mentioning Covid19 on the death certificate and then it's included. England aren't doing this and so the number of deaths is artificially low and in essence a false, useless statistic.

    Channel4 news have highlighted that GPs in England are encouraged to avoid writing Covid19 on death certificates and to ease administration and their own use of time are writing "pneumonia" or similar on the death cert; a future scandal in the making.
    Last edited by rogerfederer; 19 April 2020, 09:21.

    Leave a comment:


  • sasguru
    replied
    Originally posted by xoggoth View Post

    A lot of uncertainty and we will have to wait and see but I don't think there is, as yet, a firm case for the CUK government bashers.
    There is.
    And avoiding the issue merely leads to further decline.
    The other elephant in the room is the rise in excess deaths for all other non-Covid causes as hospitals are re-purposed for Covid.
    On a shoestring budget as the NHS has been for years, these will be higher than in countries which have higher rates pro rata of hospital and ICU beds.
    The data in the Uk is already reflecting this: Covid cases are being coped with but at the expense of everything else.

    Whereas in Belgium which also has a high rate, only half of ICU beds are taken up by Covid patients, reflecting higher capacity.
    In Germany I am told hospitals are empty, their expected surge didn't happen and they have the highest ratio of ICU and hospital beds in Europe.

    2 choices after this all over: (1) hold your politicians to account and demand change or (2) go into typical "musn't grumble" mode.

    Leave a comment:


  • GhostofTarbera
    replied
    Andrew Marr had a professor on this morning who give some straight answers

    Everyone should listen

    25mins in ish on iPlayer


    Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum

    Leave a comment:


  • sasguru
    replied
    Originally posted by xoggoth View Post
    A major factor here is probably population density, Belgium is one of most densely populated countries in Europe and the UK is significantly more crowded than Germany and France. Even with identical effective measures we would expect Belgium and the UK to have higher rates, it's basic maths. In fact, France has a significantly higher rate, which may indicate they have been less effective at prevention.

    .
    No. The reason for the high rates of death in Belgium is that (1) half of all COVID deaths are in care and nursing homes and (2) they are recording those deaths, unlike the Uk.

    Originally posted by Old Greg View Post
    Nursing and care home deaths are the elephant in the room. Not just in the UK.
    Not in Belgium. They are aware of and recording those deaths and heads are beginning to roll.

    Leave a comment:


  • BlasterBates
    replied
    It's now clear that Boris has surrounded himself with useless sycophants who basically haven't clue, and Boris will be out of action for the forseeable future, focusing on his breathing. There seems to be no plan to get out of it. The "blame China" strategy will gain traction. That won't be helpful on the otherside when investment is needed. Britain may have seized back control but the captain has gone AWOL and the ship is rudderless.

    Leave a comment:


  • Old Greg
    replied
    Originally posted by xoggoth View Post
    Belgium and the UK are highest in the the number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases. This could simply be because we are not testing as many, only the more serious cases. I would have thought the more meaningful figure is deaths per 100,000 population for which we are well behind Belgium, Spain, Italy and France.

    A major factor here is probably population density, Belgium is one of most densely populated countries in Europe and the UK is significantly more crowded than Germany and France. Even with identical effective measures we would expect Belgium and the UK to have higher rates, it's basic maths. In fact, France has a significantly higher rate, which may indicate they have been less effective at prevention.

    Of course there are delays in these things, Italy is high because it started spreading there first, no saying that the UK could not match or exceed it. Also as you said, the UK is only counting hospital deaths, so the real figure may be quite a bit higher. However, it seems likely we have passed our peak now that we have had controls for a few weeks.

    A lot of uncertainty and we will have to wait and see but I don't think there is, as yet, a firm case for the CUK government bashers.
    Nursing and care home deaths are the elephant in the room. Not just in the UK.

    Leave a comment:


  • xoggoth
    replied
    Gordon Bennet! San Marino - 115.44 Deaths/100k pop. What's going on there?

    Ah Very small population and lots of Italians.

    Leave a comment:


  • xoggoth
    replied
    Belgium and the UK are highest in the the number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases. This could simply be because we are not testing as many, only the more serious cases. I would have thought the more meaningful figure is deaths per 100,000 population for which we are well behind Belgium, Spain, Italy and France.

    A major factor here is probably population density, Belgium is one of most densely populated countries in Europe and the UK is significantly more crowded than Germany and France. Even with identical effective measures we would expect Belgium and the UK to have higher rates, it's basic maths. In fact, France has a significantly higher rate, which may indicate they have been less effective at prevention.

    Of course there are delays in these things, Italy is high because it started spreading there first, no saying that the UK could not match or exceed it. Also as you said, the UK is only counting hospital deaths, so the real figure may be quite a bit higher. However, it seems likely we have passed our peak now that we have had controls for a few weeks.

    A lot of uncertainty and we will have to wait and see but I don't think there is, as yet, a firm case for the CUK government bashers.

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X