Reply to: Catalonia

[northernladyuk]

They are planning to trigger the article 155 that will suspend the Catalonia autonomy.

It will just escalate things. The Catalan government has already reached a place where they are claiming a higher authority than the Spanish constitution, so they will just ignore it, I expect.

[Bee]

They are planning to trigger the article 155 that will suspend the Catalonia autonomy.

[northernladyuk]

Well I agree with the list/flow - the only thing missing - is the formal removal of autonomy from the region by the Spanish gov (as allowed for in the constitution), when a region unilaterally declares indy.

How the Catalans react to THAT, will be very interesting and that's when the talks will have to step up - as I envisage the region that contributes ~20% of GDP, will be v quick to strike to make themselves heard

That is 'how it plays out'. The Spanish 'we will not talk until Catalonia returns to legality' position, is unlikely to last long following a UDI. They are going to have to talk to sort it out.

[Bean]

A win is a win, if free and fair. But there's been no opportunity to hold such a vote. The logical flow that is being taken is:

• Self determination for a people is a right
• It should be realised through a free and fair plebiscite
• The Spanish constitution forbids this and the Spanish government and state frustrate it
• A free and fair plebiscite will be held in spite of the Spanish constitution
• A free and fair plebiscite held in spite of the Spanish constitution has been disrupted by the violence of Spanish paramilitary police
• The outcome of that disrupted plebiscite is the best possible reflection of the will of the Catalan people, given the circumstances
• The Catalan parliament will hold a vote to decide on independence, in spite of the Spanish constitution (which frustrates self determination, see above)
• The Spanish supreme court has suspended the Catalan parliament
• The Catalan parliament treats the will of the Catalan people as a higher authority and will meet anyway
• The Catalan parliament declares independence

And then they see how it plays out. The great tragedy (or one of them) is that a free and fair referendum probably would have failed. It may not be too late for the Spanish government to organise an advisory plebiscite to determine the will of the Catalan people. But I doubt they have the mindset for that. They'll continue to screw it up.

Well I agree with the list/flow - the only thing missing - is the formal removal of autonomy from the region by the Spanish gov (as allowed for in the constitution), when a region unilaterally declares indy.

How the Catalans react to THAT, will be very interesting and that's when the talks will have to step up - as I envisage the region that contributes ~20% of GDP, will be v quick to strike to make themselves heard

[BlasterBates]

Here's an example of how secession was handled democratically.

They had no choice the T-Rex's were on the rampage.

[northernladyuk]

Here's an example of how secession was handled democratically.

The Catalan government and parliament have tried to handle things democratically, but the Spanish constitution frustrates democratic self-determination of peoples.

[northernladyuk]

All Spain has to do is freeze their bank accounts and then they're f***ed.

More likely to be successful than military intervention. Tricky going with the main arterial road and rail routes from Spain to France running straight through Catalonia.

[NotAllThere]

Here's an example of how secession was handled democratically.

[northernladyuk]

It's the final sanction when you rebels/secessionists/revolutionaries say to a government "Yeah? You and whose army?".

It doesn't have a great track record of success, and would be difficult to pull off in contemporary Western Europe. And really, it would just increase the desire for independence in Catalonia. It may also see the risk of losing the support of the wider Spanish population, leading to events such as a general strike, given the living memory history of military dictatorship. Hard to see how it would succeed in the objective of keeping hold of Catalonia. It will reach the point when negotiations would be held. I'd love to know what conversations are going on in the background, including with other European states and the EU.

[NotAllThere]

Is Spain going to send its army in?

It's the final sanction when you rebels/secessionists/revolutionaries say to a government "Yeah? You and who's army?".

[northernladyuk]

What if it had succeeded, at say 52:48 ?

Are the supreme court just going to ban all future sessions (effectively removing autonomy) or just this week I wonder?

A win is a win, if free and fair. But there's been no opportunity to hold such a vote. The logical flow that is being taken is:

• Self determination for a people is a right
• It should be realised through a free and fair plebiscite
• The Spanish constitution forbids this and the Spanish government and state frustrate it
• A free and fair plebiscite will be held in spite of the Spanish constitution
• A free and fair plebiscite held in spite of the Spanish constitution has been disrupted by the violence of Spanish paramilitary police
• The outcome of that disrupted plebiscite is the best possible reflection of the will of the Catalan people, given the circumstances
• The Catalan parliament will hold a vote to decide on independence, in spite of the Spanish constitution (which frustrates self determination, see above)
• The Spanish supreme court has suspended the Catalan parliament
• The Catalan parliament treats the will of the Catalan people as a higher authority and will meet anyway
• The Catalan parliament declares independence

And then they see how it plays out. The great tragedy (or one of them) is that a free and fair referendum probably would have failed. It may not be too late for the Spanish government to organise an advisory plebiscite to determine the will of the Catalan people. But I doubt they have the mindset for that. They'll continue to screw it up.

[BlasterBates]

All Spain has to do is freeze their bank accounts and then they're f***ed.

[Bean]

Is Spain going to send its army in?

Well, if it did - the Catalans would need some kind of statutory right to bear arms and form (and regulate) a well governed militia, to protect the state from the federal government.......now where have I heard that before

[northernladyuk]

Does Catalan have an army?

Is Spain going to send its army in?

[Bean]

So the Spanish supreme court has suspended the Catalan parliamentary session. The Catalan government doesn't recognise this and will press ahead with a declaration of independence debate on Monday. Meanwhile capital flight is reportedly underway and businesses are looking to move headquarters from Catalonia.

Really should have allowed the vote to go ahead and fall short of a majority...

What if it had succeeded, at say 52:48 ?

Are the supreme court just going to ban all future sessions (effectively removing autonomy) or just this week I wonder?