Reply to: Did you know...

[pjclarke]

The 2014 Washington Post*article titled “Could Non-Citizens Decide The November Election?” was written by Jesse Richman and David Earnest, two associate professors of Political Science and International Studies at Old Dominion University. Their research relied upon data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES).

But the CCES has since been discredited in the literature.

This paper documents how low-level measurement error for survey questions generally agreed to be highly reliable can lead to large prediction errors in large sample surveys, such as the CCES. The example for this analysis is Richman, Chattha, and Earnest (2014), which presents a biased estimate of the rate at which non-citizens voted in recent elections. The results, we show, are completely accounted for by very low frequency measurement error; further, the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0.

From <http://projects.iq.harvard.edu/cces/news/perils-cherry-picking-low-frequency-events-large-sample-surveys>

Was the source of the 3 million illegals number the tweets from Greg 'I believe we could stop 99% of the nonsense by bringing dueling back.' Phillips? You'd think he would release his workings rather than just the headline.

And evidence for 'tens of thousands of dead people voting'? Another tweet?

[northernladyuk]

Boo hoo hoo.

FTFY

[SpontaneousOrder]

No response then to the false racism claim then? It's what bigots cite in lieu of an actual argument, so I guess it's to be expected.

For people who think illegal alien voting isn't a thing, here's something from the WaPo back in 2014, when it was less of an 'big deal':

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...mber-election/

[pjclarke]

Clinton is now 1.15 million votes ahead. I would not be surprised to see 2 million once all counts are complete.

Called it. Numbers now Trump:62,214,222 Clinton:64,223,958.

I make that a >3% margin for Clinton. The Republicans have lost the popular vote in six of the past seven elections. The president-elect is less popular than any incoming president in the history of polling. Interesting times.

[d000hg]

#DrainTheCUK

[LondonManc]

There's nothing he has to say that I particularly want to listen to.

Ah, proper Mod skills coming shining through again then

[pjclarke]

but the original source appears to be electionnightgatekeepers . com

I thought so too, however this seems to be a mistake in transmission. The claim, as you say, is all over the Right Wingnut blogosphere sourced to two tweets from Gregg Phillips who is described on blogs as the founder of something called VoterFraud.org which in turn redirects to the conspiracy website Election Night Gatekeepers | Cutting Edge Information on Computerized Election Fraud Issues & Presidential Races, Past & Present full of paranoid claims of the 'ruling elite' and their 'secret computer programs'.

But I don't think Phillips is so affilliated, he seems to be part of various other orgs alleging fraud, but not that one. There's a reasonable writeup here

3 Million Illegal Immigrants Voted, Claims Gregg Phillips Of VoteStand: Donald Trump’s Final Popular Vote Count Alleged To Be Better Than 2016 Predictions

Now, evidence for the zombie voters?

[NotAllThere]

If you're going to carry on a conversation with him, it could be a bit one-sided for a while...

There's nothing he has to say that I particularly want to listen to.

[LondonManc]

When SO made his post, I looked for sources. If I'd found a mainstream source (think Daily Mail and up), then I'd have let it go. Of course it was repeated over the usual far right/tin foil hat wearing/nutter blogs, but the original source appears to be electionnightgatekeepers . com. Which is a far right/tin foil hat wearing/nutter site.

No. That's why I dug for it and found it. If you'd specified your source, I'd have banned you 15 minutes sooner.

If you're going to carry on a conversation with him, it could be a bit one-sided for a while...

[NotAllThere]

Source is probably tweets from Greg Phillips of VoteStart.

When SO made his post, I looked for sources. If I'd found a mainstream source (think Daily Mail and up), then I'd have let it go. Of course it was repeated over the usual far right/tin foil hat wearing/nutter blogs, but the original source appears to be electionnightgatekeepers . com. Which is a far right/tin foil hat wearing/nutter site.

He did say He didn't like my source - but I didn't specify a source.

No. That's why I dug for it and found it. If you'd specified your source, I'd have banned you 15 minutes sooner.

[pjclarke]

Fake news

Source is probably tweets from Greg Phillips of VoteStart

Phillips tweeted:

We have verified more than three million votes cast by non-citizens.
We are joining .@TrueTheVote*to initiate legal action.*#unrigged

Completed analysis of database of 180 million voter registrations. Number of non-citizen votes exceeds 3 million.Consulting legal team.

That is a pretty impressive analysis to have been completed so fast, we look forward to seeing the methodology: however as 180 million is rather more than actually voted, even if this extraordinary analysis is correct, it does not to demonstrate that 3 million votes were illegtimate,

Also, 'non-citizen' is not the same as 'illegal', and neither actually has the right to vote (I believe).

Fake news, with all the hallmarks of a desperate attempt to muddy the waters.

Clinton is now 1.15 million votes ahead. I would not be surprised to see 2 million once all counts are complete.


Update 1 Stackexchange has a plausible explanation for the origin of the number

http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/qu...ntial-election

Update 2 This paper in the journal Electoral Studies, analysing a similar claim,concluded

This paper investigates the perils of making inferences about low-probability events from large-N survey data.

The authors show that a recent study purporting to demonstrate that non-citizens in the United States vote is almost certainly flawed.

The article concludes that the rate of non-citizen voting in the United States is likely 0.

Usual tactic, get your bogus number out there into the echo chamber; it takes a lot longer to debunk BS than it does to make it up. Welcome to post-truth politics.

[Mordac]

Here's a vid for you.

Latest Project Veritas Bombshell: Undercover Journalist In Full Burka Offered Huma Abedin's Ballot In NYC | Zero Hedge


You should make sure you know your subject matter before you get argumentative.

You'll be so missed. Not.

[SpontaneousOrder]

Quite - I was going to haul him up on that one as a starter, but arguing with an idiot tends to get you closer to nowhere than you want to be, so I let it lie.

Here's a vid for you.

Latest Project Veritas Bombshell: Undercover Journalist In Full Burka Offered Huma Abedin's Ballot In NYC | Zero Hedge


You should make sure you know your subject matter before you get argumentative.

[cojak]

Did you know that CUK became a rather nicer place without you?

Let's continue this experiment further shall we?

[SpontaneousOrder]

So illegals can vote in the USA? Weird. When I lived there legitimately I wasn't allowed a vote.

Is the reality of the situation that, though they have no right to vote, illegals can still rock up and attempt to vote, risking punishment?

Correct. Tens of thousands of dead people voted too.