Reply to: Winners and Losers

[Pondlife]

Yeah, this is the belief I'm leaning towards. Saudis etc clobber the US shale industry, thereby in the medium term putting a competitor out of business, then prices will rise again.

I do hope that we (UK) are gobbling up lots of cheap oil while we can.

Nothing is going to clobber the shale industry.. there isn't one at the mo. When the price drops below $140 they just cover it all with dust sheets and wait it out. They (Oil Cos) still keep the rights. Now the price is so low they're looking to mothball North sea rigs. It's not like the reserves are going anywhere. It's the same group getting out of the ground where ever it is. This is all (IMHO) just to piss off Putin and if Venezuela takes a kicking so much the better for the yanks.

[AtW]

Long term oil price is 20 bucks per barrel, it's been crazy overpriced all these years and now it's going back to normality (one would hope).



Before OPEC it was 15 bucks.

[centurian]

The fact it's harming other allies like UK is a price worth paying for our bestest friends over the pond.

But it's not harming the UK economy (overall) - as any loss of revenue is offset by the GDP boost gained by lower oil prices. We (the whole UK) are not a net oil exporter.

[Platypus]

It might also be an indirect attack on the US shale oil industry which is not exactly fledgling, but is in its technological infancy

Yeah, this is the belief I'm leaning towards. Saudis etc clobber the US shale industry, thereby in the medium term putting a competitor out of business, then prices will rise again.

I do hope that we (UK) are gobbling up lots of cheap oil while we can.

[scooterscot]

I hate to reopen the wound but Salmond had a lot of faith in his future oil revenues ISTR? I wonder what the current situation would have done to his spreadsheet?

I'm sure Westminster in that case will not mind giving Scotland a 40 year rebate when the times were good, instead of plundering the wealth of the country in wars etc.

[Batcher]

The USA and the Saudis are 'sort-of' on the same side, in the same camp. There may be a bit of jostling, but they are mostly singing from the same hymn sheet.

Saudis reluctance to support the oil price might be due to one of the conspiracy theories ^^
but it might equally be simply keeping their OPEC buddies in line, showing them who is boss

who knows ? I dont

USA are fracking mad and are less reliant on the outside countries for oil at the moment. They have gone in with the Saudis to drive down the price so as to punish Russia. The fact it's harming other allies like UK is a price worth paying for our bestest friends over the pond.

As for Scotland, the oil industry will survive but will shrink for a bit. It was always said it was a bonus and we would have had an oil fund set up to cover eventualities like this low oil price rather than spunking it up a wall like Westminster has done.

Also, independence wouldn't have happened until 2016 so it would still be a UK problem at the moment even after a Yes vote.

[lukemg]

Won't even try to guess which way this will bounce, fortunately I am diversified across the globe so not worried about BP and Russian index allocation currently tanking.
Holding nerve has always worked in the past so I will just do that and if either goes completely bump, they represent only a small part of my portfolio.

[EternalOptimist]

I'm no expert on the international oil markets, but I understood that the Saudi's have been flooding the market too, to the annoyance of the Americans. One theory is that the Saudis would benefit long-term from US oil companies going under due to a collapse in the oil price. The Americans can't do a lot about it because they need the Saudis on their side against Russia.

But this is all based on something I half-read after coming in from the pub around New Year, so maybe I misunderstood. (Mind you, this is General, so that shouldn't matter.)

The USA and the Saudis are 'sort-of' on the same side, in the same camp. There may be a bit of jostling, but they are mostly singing from the same hymn sheet.

Saudis reluctance to support the oil price might be due to one of the conspiracy theories ^^
but it might equally be simply keeping their OPEC buddies in line, showing them who is boss

who knows ? I dont

[NickFitz]

I'm no expert on the international oil markets, but I understood that the Saudi's have been flooding the market too, to the annoyance of the Americans. One theory is that the Saudis would benefit long-term from US oil companies going under due to a collapse in the oil price. The Americans can't do a lot about it because they need the Saudis on their side against Russia.

But this is all based on something I half-read after coming in from the pub around New Year, so maybe I misunderstood. (Mind you, this is General, so that shouldn't matter.)

[EternalOptimist]

As I understand it there is an increase in oil available on the market - which is driving prices down.

But this is all to do with embargoing Russia so that they cannot sell their oil at a competitive price (mainly because it costs more to extract from Siberia apparently).

So OPEC are allowing the price to drop to price the Russians out of the market.

But it is all manipulation!

So generally until Russia withdraw from the Ukraine oil prices will remain low.....

So do we want Russia to withdraw from the Ukraine?

OPECs refusal to support the oil price might be an indirect attack on Russia by the Saudis on behalf of the USA
It might also be an indirect attack on the US shale oil industry which is not exactly fledgling, but is in its technological infancy

who knows. I dont

[VectraMan]

It's a real shame they didn't vote Yes so we could watch it play out..

I always thought if they did vote Yes the whole thing would unravel within 6 months once reality hit home and it would never happen. Obviously I was wrong: the whole thing would have unravelled in 3 months.

[sal]

Robin Allan, chairman of the independent explorers' association Brindex, says it is "almost impossible to make money" with the oil price below $US60 a barrel and there will be no new investments.

Meaning that the oil execs will have to downgrade from 200ft to 120ft yachts...

[original PM]

As I understand it there is an increase in oil available on the market - which is driving prices down.

But this is all to do with embargoing Russia so that they cannot sell their oil at a competitive price (mainly because it costs more to extract from Siberia apparently).

So OPEC are allowing the price to drop to price the Russians out of the market.

But it is all manipulation!

So generally until Russia withdraw from the Ukraine oil prices will remain low.....

So do we want Russia to withdraw from the Ukraine?

[eek]

I hate to reopen the wound but Salmond had a lot of faith in his future oil revenues ISTR? I wonder what the current situation would have done to his spreadsheet?

It's a real shame they didn't vote Yes so we could watch it play out..

[barrydidit]

I wonder what the current situation would have done to his spreadsheet?

#VALUE!

Probably.