Reply to: Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen

[Old Greg]

William Hill are offering 3/1 on another referendum before 2020.

[d000hg]

Glad I'm due £20 cash back, since my £10 YES bet is looking bad and my £10 free bet 90+% turnout is shafted.

[londongent]

wish them the best. hope it works out whichever way they choose.

[jamesbrown]

The probability of an equal number of votes for the two choices may be very small, but it's not actually zero

Hence "approximately" ...or precisely zero with an odd number of valid votes cast

[alluvial]

I do have to be honest.
the idea that this whole process has become a betting opportunity
is a bit tacky, and reflects badly on the people who propose such.

everyone knows it's a good sh@gging opportunity

Got to get something out of the whole thing.
No chance of catching one of them unicorns, you need a virgin for that.

[EternalOptimist]

I do have to be honest.
the idea that this whole process has become a betting opportunity
is a bit tacky, and reflects badly on the people who propose such.

everyone knows it's a good sh@gging opportunity

[NickFitz]

If there is no winning margin, then your bet will have lost I suspect. The Bet is that there isa winning margin and that it is less than 1%, if either of those conditions are not satisfied then you've lost.

Ah well, easy come, easy go

[alluvial]

Ta, but I can't see how any of that applies in a case like this: if there is no winning margin (because nobody won) then it's neither less than nor greater than 1%

If there is no winning margin, then your bet will have lost I suspect. The Bet is that there isa winning margin and that it is less than 1%, if either of those conditions are not satisfied then you've lost.

[EternalOptimist]

The probability of an equal number of votes for the two choices may be very small, but it's not actually zero

er....


put your brain care specialist on danger money baby

[NickFitz]

Practically, I don't see how your question applies at all. Unlike the polls, which round to the nearest %, the referendum is a straightforward vote count, there is no margin requirement other than one vote, so the probability of a dead heat is approximately zero. For betting where dead heats are common (e.g. golf), dead heat rules apply, but it's a non-issue in this case. There was something on this outside of a betting context on the BBC:

BBC News - Scottish independence: What if result is a dead heat?

The probability of an equal number of votes for the two choices may be very small, but it's not actually zero

[jamesbrown]

Ta, but I can't see how any of that applies in a case like this: if there is no winning margin (because nobody won) then it's neither less than nor greater than 1%

Practically, I don't see how your question applies at all. Unlike the polls, which round to the nearest %, the referendum is a straightforward vote count, there is no margin requirement other than one vote, so the probability of a dead heat is approximately zero. For betting where dead heats are common (e.g. golf), dead heat rules apply, but it's a non-issue in this case. There was something on this outside of a betting context on the BBC:

BBC News - Scottish independence: What if result is a dead heat?

[alluvial]

And if you think Cameron will resign in the event of a Yes, you can get 22.0 (23/1) on him exiting in Sept.

[alluvial]

Well Betfair odds have reacted so that it was 1.07 for a No vote. So I lumped a lay on for a £20 liability.
Got on the Yes Vote Percentage market with a fiver at 16.0.

Prices appear to be moving the other way now so I could make the massive guaranteed profit of 55p. I think I'll leave it to see if there are a few close results and the odds should hopefully move in my favour and I can get out for a tidy profit, if not then, oh well.

[Unix]

The head of YouGov said he's 99% certain based on asking voters after they had voted.

He's either going to look like a genius or a complete fool tomorrow.

How many were in the sample? Based on 4 million voting I hope he's not basing it on less than 1%

[EternalOptimist]

Do they specify their margin of error? If it's more than 4%…

4% abv iirc