Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen

[jamesbrown]

They count every single vote, I would imagine, but I can't find anything on their site about what happens in a dead heat. Maybe they just void all the bets and refund the stakes?

Vanishing small probability in this instance, but there are dead heat rules for betting.

[jamesbrown]

No vote already priced in

Largely. I'd still expect cable to jump to 1.65-66 on a "no", but obviously a massive fall on a "yes", well below 1.6.

[meridian]

Wtf are you two talking about?

Sterling hits two-year high versus euro as Scotland votes

I meant today - given all the talk about exit polls and predictions of which way it's going to go, there's been very little movement in the last few hours.

[SantaClaus]

Largely. I'd still expect cable to jump to 1.65-66 on a "no", but obviously a massive fall on a "yes", well below 1.6.

It'll be whipsaw central. Generally on news, they spike price the wrong way first. Which is fine by me as I'd like both my "one touches" to pay out.

[EternalOptimist]

just had an email.

xx installed
xyz ready to go

will you be good to go in one hour ?




ffs. me tongues hanging out. and its election night

[jamesbrown]

It'll be whipsaw central. Generally on news, they spike price the wrong way first. Which is fine by me as I'd like both my "one touches" to pay out.

Yep. There will be a few overreactions before the final overreaction, which will probably drift back in the coming days and weeks (unless a "yes" vote results in particularly ugly negotiations). My central expectation would be a relatively short-lived spike to 1.66-1.67, fading back in upcoming sessions as the realisation sets in that "no" will be a fairly ugly negotiation too.

[SantaClaus]

YouGov poll out...

46% Yes 54% No

[NickFitz]

Vanishing small probability in this instance, but there are dead heat rules for betting.

Ta, but I can't see how any of that applies in a case like this: if there is no winning margin (because nobody won) then it's neither less than nor greater than 1%

[NickFitz]

YouGov poll out...

46% Yes 54% No

Do they specify their margin of error? If it's more than 4%…

[SantaClaus]

Do they specify their margin of error? If it's more than 4%…

The head of YouGov said he's 99% certain based on asking voters after they had voted.

He's either going to look like a genius or a complete fool tomorrow.