Reply to: State of the Market

[jamesbrown]

When demand exceeds supply, companies will hire almost anyone with a pulse. Ok i am exaggerating, but companies are more than happy to cross hire people into different skillsets as long as you can half pass the interview process. Anyone who is any good wont have a problem finding a decent paying contract when the good times return.

During the booms times it easy to think the good times will last forever, and during the bust it easy to fall into the trap the good times will never return. I think you are suffering from the later.

I'm not personally suffering from anything, as I've never been out of work and never had better paying contracts, but I'm not an IT generalist. From what I can see of general IT, it has been a very long downwards slide, accelerated by the pandemic and associated gov't interventions. This thread serves as a testament to the broader forces operating, which are definitely not recent, some of those UK-centric (e.g., IR35) and others not (e.g., commoditization and offshoring).

[Fraidycat]

The recent quiet period will probably end when interest rates are cut substantially. For anyone with a generalist IT skillset, it isn't going to get any easier to maintain a decent living standard and the next downturn probably won't be very far away.

When demand exceeds supply, companies will hire almost anyone with a pulse. Ok i am exaggerating, but companies are more than happy to cross hire people into different skillsets as long as you can half pass the interview process. Anyone who is any good wont have a problem finding a decent paying contract when the good times return.

During the booms times it easy to think the good times will last forever, and during the bust it easy to fall into the trap the good times will never return. I think you are suffering from the later.

[jamesbrown]

I was talking about this recent quiet period. I've been in contracts since 2006 with at most gaps of a few weeks, rate it highest its been in current contract so not seeing the downward trajectory in my area.

The recent quiet period will probably end when interest rates are cut substantially. For anyone with a generalist IT skillset, it isn't going to get any easier to maintain a decent living standard and the next downturn probably won't be very far away.

[Fraidycat]

However, the systematic commoditization of IT skillets started before this thread started. Peaks and troughs will continue, but they are superimposed on a downwards trajectory.

The background downwards trajectory is relatively small, like -2% a year on rates in real terms or something like that.

It was pretty meaningless and not noticeable over the short term, anything less than a 10 year timeframe.

We have had something like an 80% fall in the number of contracts in the last couple of years. Thats what we are talking about.

[Unix]

This thread started in 2016. Interest rates and GEs and pandemics and downturns and summer holidays are all reasons, on different timescales. However, the systematic commoditization of IT skillets started before this thread started. Peaks and troughs will continue, but they are superimposed on a downwards trajectory.

I was talking about this recent quiet period. I've been in contracts since 2006 with at most gaps of a few weeks, rate it highest its been in current contract so not seeing the downward trajectory in my area.

[jamesbrown]

Interest rates are the reason.

This thread started in 2016. Interest rates and GEs and pandemics and downturns and summer holidays are all reasons, on different timescales. However, the systematic commoditization of IT skillets started before this thread started. Peaks and troughs will continue, but they are superimposed on a downwards trajectory.

[Unix]

Usually there is a reason for a downturn, i.e. .dotnet boom, banking scandal, cost of living.

What I am finding most odd, that there does not seem to be a direct reason for all of this tulip ATM. And since there is no reason, we can project the recovery, if at all. It does seem like 2025 before things are likely to pickup.

Interest rates are the reason.

[SchumiStars]

I might kill myself. On my gravestone, I was taken by IR35 and a load of freshies.

I used to support immigration believing there was enough for everyone. Now I am not so sure.

[ladymuck]

1 story I heard is that there could well be 1 if not 2 state funerals later this year - so it’s gone early because there may not be a suitable time later…

That's treason!

[Fraidycat]

Whether it gets back to pre-crisis is something that nobody knows right now.

Not inflation adjusted.

£500 a day today is equivalent to what £400 a day was pre covid.

The £500 a day contract is now cheaper than ever for clients. So i expect demand for contractors to return.

Just the premium above Permie pay gets smaller and smaller overtime.

[avonleigh]

Usually there is a reason for a downturn, i.e. .dotnet boom, banking scandal, cost of living.

What I am finding most odd, that there does not seem to be a direct reason for all of this tulip ATM. And since there is no reason, we can project the recovery, if at all. It does seem like 2025 before things are likely to pickup.

You have mentioned cost of living. That's one factor. Throw in interest rates, state of the economy, brexit, ir35, offshoring, oversupply of visas, covid etc etc. All have had an impact one way or another, some to a lesser degree than others. There is a reason for everything, things don't just happen.
There will be a recovery, of course there will. Once the election is over and the economy starts improving. Whether it gets back to pre-crisis is something that nobody knows right now.

[Fraidycat]

Usually there is a reason for a downturn, i.e. .dotnet boom, banking scandal, cost of living.

What I am finding most odd, that there does not seem to be a direct reason for all of this tulip ATM. And since there is no reason, we can project the recovery, if at all. It does seem like 2025 before things are likely to pickup.

This is the multi year Pandemic bust that was supposed to happen in mid 2020.

They just delayed it by 2 years by handing out free money like candy.

But that never works in the long run, as otherwise there wound never be an economic bust ever again. In fact it just makes things even worse, ie Inflation.

This ends when inflation is properly contained, it might be already, but there could be another round of inflation if they cut interest too soon/by too much. So they are taking their time about it. Even when they start cutting it could be years before we get below 3% again.

But a change in sentiment may still be enough, in 2025 clients might start opening up the purse strings when they see the worst is behind us.

[SchumiStars]

Usually there is a reason for a downturn, i.e. .dotnet boom, banking scandal, cost of living.

What I am finding most odd, that there does not seem to be a direct reason for all of this tulip ATM. And since there is no reason, we can project the recovery, if at all. It does seem like 2025 before things are likely to pickup.

[dsc]

First it's the elections, then it's going to be the summer holidays, then it's going to be the already Q4/end of the year...

There is always a justification to why the market is slow but the real reason is that the market just sucks baws and it's been like this for years

It is effectively the summer hols period anyway, even if there's even anyone left thinking about pushing some projects forward they have the election in a month, so what's the point? Q3 is the earliest tulip is going to pick up...if it ever does, but even then you might find various save-the-budget-programs being announced by the new gov, more taxes etc. so wouldn't hold my breath really.

[oliverson]

First it's the elections, then it's going to be the summer holidays, then it's going to be the already Q4/end of the year...

There is always a justification to why the market is slow but the real reason is that the market just sucks baws and it's been like this for years

There's always been hot periods and then factors/events that kill the market, but I see this now as terminal decline. Too many people looking for too few opportunities and prepared to work for peanuts, inside IR35, etc., I see no hope in hell of a return to the glory days of contracting. Then there's the taxation. Sure glad I've had my 20+ years in the game but looking to wind down now, get out of this country before Labour tax the living 5hit out of me further!