Reply to: Withdrawal Bill 31415926535th Reading

[Old Greg]

So, for the avoidance of doubt, your prediction is that the gov't will fall in the first two weeks of June, right?

Let's return to this in, say, one month in order to mock the cretin that was wrong. M'kay?

What was you prediction for the outcome of the last GE?

[darmstadt]

Oh, right, so your new prediction is what precisely? "Meh, stuff"?

What is not "immediately"? On what will there be "more than one vote"? What do you expect will be the state of our gov't at the time of the summer recess?

Even further up tulip creek without a paddle....and with a leak to boot....

[jamesbrown]

The government won't immediately fall, there will probably be more than one vote. As with last time there will probably be a round of votes. If however there is no agreement it won't hobble on to October waiting for a no deal.

Oh, right, so your new prediction is what precisely? "Meh, stuff"?

What is not "immediately"? On what will there be "more than one vote"? What do you expect will be the state of our gov't at the time of the summer recess?

[jamesbrown]

FTFY

My assumption is that "expats" are "outside the UK" and that goods travelling from inside the UK to outside the UK are "exports".

HTH.

[BlasterBates]

Let's keep our cretin metric simple, BB.

You are predicting that the gov't falls in early June.

I am predicting that the gov't does not fall in early June.

The government won't immediately fall, there will probably be more than one vote. As with last time there will probably be a round of votes. If however there is no agreement it won't hobble on to October waiting for a no deal.

[NotAllThere]

...
If the WAB fails, the PM will resign before the recess, the recess will happen, a new PM will be chosen for the Tory conference, the new PM will have a new policy platform (snowflakes will cry and gnash their teeth, comfort blanket exports imports will boom). ...

FTFY

[jamesbrown]

...and what are you predicting, that a minority of 100 Tory MPs party it up in Westminster waiting for no deal.

Of course, how else will you get that coveted no deal.

Let's keep our cretin metric simple, BB.

You are predicting that the gov't falls in early June.

I am predicting that the gov't does not fall in early June.

[BlasterBates]

So, for the avoidance of doubt, your prediction is that the gov't will fall in the first two weeks of June, right?

Let's return to this in, say, one month in order to mock the cretin that was wrong. M'kay?

...and what are you predicting, that a minority of 100 Tory MPs party it up in Westminster waiting for no deal.

Of course, how else will you get that coveted no deal.

[jamesbrown]

Does anyone seriously believe that if the withdrawal bill fails for the final time in early June, and it will be the final vote, that parliament will simply go home and wait for the no deal on 31st October.

So, for the avoidance of doubt, your prediction is that the gov't will fall in the first two weeks of June, right?

Let's return to this in, say, one month in order to mock the cretin that was wrong. M'kay?

[BlasterBates]

Does anyone seriously believe that if the withdrawal bill fails for the final time in early June, and it will be the final vote, that parliament will simply go home and wait for the no deal on 31st October.

...and presumably Unicorns will be flying around outside Westminster.

[BrilloPad]

If the withdrawal bill doesn't go through the parliamentary session ends in failure. If the government can't get the Queen's speech through it falls.

It is highly likely that if the withdrawal bill fails that the Queen's speech also fails. A new Tory PM won't change the arithmetic.

That means in effect this vote will be a no confidence vote.

As explained by Theo Usherwood from LBC.

Be afraid ......

So you are getting your facts from LBC now? The station that brought you Nigel Farage.....

[jamesbrown]

If the withdrawal bill doesn't go through the parliamentary session ends in failure. If the government can't get the Queen's speech through it falls.

It is highly likely that if the withdrawal bill fails that the Queen's speech also fails. A new Tory PM won't change the arithmetic.

That means in effect this vote will be a no confidence vote.

As explained by Theo Usherwood from LBC.

Be afraid ......

Hearing things on the interweb or on the radio doesn't represent an understanding.

There's nothing more to do before the summer recess.

Everything that happens afterwards is about whether the Tories fear No Deal or Korbyn more.

If the WAB fails, the PM will resign before the recess, the recess will happen, a new PM will be chosen for the Tory conference, the new PM will have a new policy platform (snowflakes will cry and gnash their teeth, comfort blanket exports will boom).

After the recess, the new PM will face a choice between seeking a No Deal "by accident" (i.e. "I don't want one, honest guv" ) or by advocating for it, in which case a GE will be needed (seems unlikely to me for the same reason). Obviously, the new session of Parliament will try to stop this in whatever way it can, but the new PM may prefer tactics that TM didn't prefer.

Either way, we're not into the territory of the gov't falling until much further down the line around, say, October 31 () at which point the Tories will have a stark choice between a hard brexit then or Korbyn then (followed by a good chance of Korbyn later, either way).

The idea that the gov't is going to fall in early June when the WAB fails is, well, cretinous.

HTH.

[BlasterBates]

If the withdrawal bill doesn't go through the parliamentary session ends in failure. If the government can't get the Queen's speech through it falls.

It is highly likely that if the withdrawal bill fails that the Queen's speech also fails. A new Tory PM won't change the arithmetic.

That means in effect this vote will be a no confidence vote.

As explained by Theo Usherwood from LBC.

Be afraid ......

[jamesbrown]

Nothing to indicate its a vote of confidence. In fact, nothing different from MV1, MV2 or MV3.

How long will the EU grant extensions for? Forever I suspect.

Yeah, it's different from those because you can't bring back a Second Reading (of the same bill in the same session).

Won't be a confidence vote in the gov't though.

Also doesn't mean a new session.

Best they can hope for is that Labour abstain and it gets through to Third Reading, whereupon it will be amended and then fall there.

Second Reading usually isn't an issue.

[BrilloPad]

This time it will be also be a vote of confidence, simply to add to the drama.

Nothing to indicate its a vote of confidence. In fact, nothing different from MV1, MV2 or MV3.

How long will the EU grant extensions for? Forever I suspect.