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Previously on "Observation from a simpleton"

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  • NotAllThere
    replied
    Originally posted by WTFH View Post
    Then you go on to use the term "better for the UK, worse for Europe", now that only works if you compared both currencies to a third one. That then tells the real story.
    2015: Euro to USD: Low 1.09, High 1.21
    Last 12 months: L1.22, H 1.25
    So, the Euro has strengthened against the dollar

    2015: GBP to USD: L1.46, H1.59
    Last 12 months: L1.25, H1.43
    Meanwhile the pound has weakened against the dollar.
    Or if you think that's just coincidence, try another major currency.
    2015: EUR to CHF: Low 0.99 High 1.1
    Last 12 months: low 1.06 High 1.20

    2015: GPB to CHF: Low 1.30 High 1.55
    Last 12 months: Low 1.23 High 1.38

    Euro strengthened against the Swiss Franc, and the pound has weakened against the Swiss Franc.

    Even taking into account the sudden removal of the EURCHF=X peg by the SNB 15.01.2015.

    Leave a comment:


  • WTFH
    replied
    Originally posted by DimPrawn View Post
    Every time we edge closer to no deal, the pound strengthens against the euro.
    Every time we edge closer to a deal, the pound weakens against the euro.

    It's almost like the market thinks no deal is better for the UK and worse for Europe.

    That's one way of looking at it.
    Another is:
    2015: Low: 1.27, High: 1.44. Between mid Feb and mid December, the rate only dropped below 1.35 on 3 days.
    In the last year: Low 1.10, High 1.16. In the last 7 months it has only spent 3 weeks above 1.14.

    Which means the high value was 24% higher in 2015 than now, and the low value was 15% higher.
    So, about 20% has been written off the UK economy since 2015, and since mid November it hasn't climbed... 1.15 to 1.13.

    Then you go on to use the term "better for the UK, worse for Europe", now that only works if you compared both currencies to a third one. That then tells the real story.
    2015: Euro to USD: Low 1.09, High 1.21
    Last 12 months: L1.22, H 1.25
    So, the Euro has strengthened against the dollar

    2015: GBP to USD: L1.46, H1.59
    Last 12 months: L1.25, H1.43
    Meanwhile the pound has weakened against the dollar.

    Leave a comment:


  • darmstadt
    replied
    Originally posted by DimPrawn View Post
    Every time we edge closer to no deal, the pound strengthens against the euro.
    Every time we edge closer to a deal, the pound weakens against the euro.

    It's almost like the market thinks no deal is better for the UK and worse for Europe.
    You might want to ask hedge fund managers and currency traders about that:

    Odey was one of the most prominent supporters of the drive to leave the EU and donated almost £900,000 to pro-Brexit campaigns. He placed huge bets against the pound and government bonds in the run-up to the June 2016 referendum and made an estimated £220m profit when the pound collapsed following the leave victory.
    ...
    Odey has boasted that each day of Brexit-related political crisis is a “good day” for him and his hedge fund. “I have had a good day,” he told the Times last month, on a day when the pound fell 2%. “Bad days tend to be good days for us.”

    Leave a comment:


  • vetran
    replied
    Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post
    Do not discount bedtime stories and comfort blankets, which target a smaller, expat, clientele, but are also more profitable.

    he is too busy working down the docks for sixpence

    Leave a comment:


  • jamesbrown
    replied
    Originally posted by Old Greg View Post
    It's the jam tea and biscuit export boom.
    Do not discount bedtime stories and comfort blankets, which target a smaller, expat, clientele, but are also more profitable.

    Leave a comment:


  • Old Greg
    replied
    Originally posted by DimPrawn View Post
    Every time we edge closer to no deal, the pound strengthens against the euro.
    Every time we edge closer to a deal, the pound weakens against the euro.

    It's almost like the market thinks no deal is better for the UK and worse for Europe.
    It's the jam tea and biscuit export boom.

    Leave a comment:


  • DimPrawn
    started a topic Observation from a simpleton

    Observation from a simpleton

    Every time we edge closer to no deal, the pound strengthens against the euro.
    Every time we edge closer to a deal, the pound weakens against the euro.

    It's almost like the market thinks no deal is better for the UK and worse for Europe.
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