Reply to: Labour to support anti no deal amendment

[Mordac]

It’s not often we agree, but I share your lack of optimism on this one.

There’s only one person I can think of that would be worse than May at negotiating with the EU, and although his initials are JC he’s not the saviour....

(Edit: okay, there are several that would be worse, including any of our Brexit Secretaries and nearly all of the government and opposition benches, but you get the point...)

That deserves a group

(He's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy)

[meridian]

I admire (but sadly don't share) your optimism. The EU will tear Corbyn so many new arses he won't know which one to speak out of.

It’s not often we agree, but I share your lack of optimism on this one.

There’s only one person I can think of that would be worse than May at negotiating with the EU, and although his initials are JC he’s not the saviour....

(Edit: okay, there are several that would be worse, including any of our Brexit Secretaries and nearly all of the government and opposition benches, but you get the point...)

[Mordac]

Yes but even if the UK crashes out, it doesn't mean that is permanent, Labour could easily fix a deal within weeks. I doubt very much the EU is going to let the UK crash out just to make a point before a GE. They'd await the outcome.

I admire (but sadly don't share) your optimism. The EU will tear Corbyn so many new arses he won't know which one to speak out of.

[BlasterBates]

Yes but even if the UK crashes out, it doesn't mean that is permanent, Labour could easily fix a deal within weeks. I doubt very much the EU is going to let the UK crash out just to make a point before a GE. They'd await the outcome.

[Mordac]

?

The WA keeps the U.K. in the Customs Union for the transition period. During transition, if the U.K. comes up with some magical unicorns to get out of the CU but keep the NI border seamless then we’ll be out of the CU, but that’s part of the future relationship.

27 member states are not going to unanimously agree to extend the date unless there is a major change in position.

26 might, but Ireland certainly won't, and it only takes one to kill the extension idea stone dead.

[meridian]

No that isn't true if there is a GE and Labour win, the UK will end up in the customs union if there isn't and Labour support May's deal and it passes, the UK will end up outside the customs union.

That is a big difference.

?

The WA keeps the U.K. in the Customs Union for the transition period. During transition, if the U.K. comes up with some magical unicorns to get out of the CU but keep the NI border seamless then we’ll be out of the CU, but that’s part of the future relationship.

27 member states are not going to unanimously agree to extend the date unless there is a major change in position.

[BlasterBates]

but realistically there won't ge a GE until Brexit is done/cancelled.
The tories aren't going to volounteer for a GE with this hanging over them.

And the DUP won't support a no-confidence motion whilst Corbyn 'friend of Sinn Fein' is the Dear Leader.

Some Brexiteer Tory ministers are toying with the idea.

[Lance]

No that isn't true if there is a GE and Labour win, the UK will end up in the customs union if there isn't and Labour support May's deal and it passes, the UK will end up outside the customs union.

That is a big difference.

but realistically there won't ge a GE until Brexit is done/cancelled.
The tories aren't going to volounteer for a GE with this hanging over them.

And the DUP won't support a no-confidence motion whilst Corbyn 'friend of Sinn Fein' is the Dear Leader.

[original PM]

Unless they get rid of Corbyn labour are unlikely to win the school egg n spoon race never mind the GE

[BlasterBates]

Then from an EU perspective there is no need for an extension. It also doesn’t make sense for Labour to vote against this deal but to then propose something that for all intents and purposes looks, waddles, and quacks like the same duck.

It doesn’t matter whether it’s May or Corbyn going back for another go at negotiating, that ship has long since sailed.

No that isn't true if there is a GE and Labour win, the UK will end up in the customs union if there isn't and Labour support May's deal and it passes, the UK will end up outside the customs union.

That is a big difference.

[meridian]

The point is if May's deal is voted down, then a GE might give Labour a majority and they are likely to go with the transition as it is now and a customs union, which is nothing more than making the backstop permanent. I don't see the EU stepping in the way. Obviously the EU wouldn't go for an extension if May simply keeps submitting the same deal over and over with the parliament as it is. In other words Labour doesn't have to propose Remain to get the EU's approval, they just need a viable plan the EU can live with.

Then from an EU perspective there is no need for an extension. It also doesn’t make sense for Labour to vote against this deal but to then propose something that for all intents and purposes looks, waddles, and quacks like the same duck.

It doesn’t matter whether it’s May or Corbyn going back for another go at negotiating, that ship has long since sailed.

[BlasterBates]

If the WA isn't going to change, then there's no point in the EU extending. The political declaration is non-binding, and any future government can negotiate future terms as they see fit.

If it was a second referendum (with an agreed question that includes No Brexit) then the EU may agree. If it's a GE where one of the major parties includes a manifesto of Remain then the EU may agree. If it is a GE where there is no practical difference between the parties, then the EU will likely not agree to any extension.

The point is if May's deal is voted down, then a GE might give Labour a majority and they are likely to go with the transition as it is now and a customs union, which is nothing more than making the backstop permanent. I don't see the EU stepping in the way. Obviously the EU wouldn't go for an extension if May simply keeps submitting the same deal over and over with the parliament as it is. In other words Labour doesn't have to propose Remain to get the EU's approval, they just need a viable plan the EU can live with.

[Old Greg]

EU will only agree to short Article 50 extension if there is 2nd referendum to run before May's EU MP elections.

IIRC the EU 27 must unanimously agreed to an extension. Whereas a withdrawal is unilateral.

[meridian]

Not at all, Labour are pushing for Brino ++

May caves to Labour's demands

This actually revolves around the political declaration rather than the withdrawal, which in essence isn't going to change and therefore won't be contentious with the EU.

If they did extend article 50 it would almost certainly be to hold a second referendum or GE which the EU would probably accept.

If the WA isn't going to change, then there's no point in the EU extending. The political declaration is non-binding, and any future government can negotiate future terms as they see fit.

If it was a second referendum (with an agreed question that includes No Brexit) then the EU may agree. If it's a GE where one of the major parties includes a manifesto of Remain then the EU may agree. If it is a GE where there is no practical difference between the parties, then the EU will likely not agree to any extension.

[AtW]

EU will only agree to short Article 50 extension if there is 2nd referendum to run before May's EU MP elections.