Reply to: Oh dear: New Election coming soon

[jamesbrown]

As another twit put it, NI wants no regulatory divergence. Except on abortion and gay marriage, obviously....

Good point, well made.

[meridian]

Totally agree with this random quote from Twit.

As another twit put it, NI wants no regulatory divergence. Except on abortion and gay marriage, obviously....

[Mordac]

I think that the DUP wanted a hard border all along, they just couldn’t say it publicly.

Pushing Leave made this impasse inevitable.

Given what they've been saying today, I think you may well be right. Some circles were never meant to be squared...

[cojak]

I think that the DUP wanted a hard border all along, they just couldn’t say it publicly.

Pushing Leave made this impasse inevitable.

[Mordac]

There's a bit more of this to come, so...

[AtW]

The UK and EU have failed to reach an agreement to move to the next stage of Brexit talks, Theresa May has said.

The talks are understood to have broken down after the DUP refused to accept concessions on the Irish border issue.

UK and EU fail to strike Brexit talks deal - BBC News

[jamesbrown]

Totally agree with this random quote from Twit.

Utter chaos in Brussels. Part of the problem is one side (Brussels) briefed and the other side didn't and made no attempt to counter-brief.
That allowed the DUP, SNP, Welsh Labour to attack deal before it knew UK version.

[jamesbrown]

My guess, the former. Either that or May is properly stupid.

Dust is still settling, but it seems that the answer is "May is properly stupid".

It appears that the EU tried to bounce her into agreement via the briefing about a deal being near (which Downing Street was playing down all morning). No surprises there. But it seems as though May hadn't really agreed any compromise language with the DUP and thought she could bounce them in turn. FFS, has she observed nothing about how the DUP operates? They're not weak and wobbly like May.

(Personally, on the substance, I wouldn't be against an all-UK solution that allowed for some regulatory convergence on areas that are directly relevant to the GFA, with the option of divergence in all other areas. That should square the circle with the DUP, assuming backbench Tories could sign up and the EU were willing. However, it seems as though May's MO of deferring any substantive discussion and "hoping for the best" has got her into trouble again).

[darmstadt]

You actually think the DUP will vote against the Torys?

Yes, they already have done at least once...

[AtW]

More important then the Ireland border will be the border with Gibraltar, where 95% of the population voted to remain.
Currently there is a border with checks, but before that there was just a fence, people had to travel to Africa first and then come back by boat. Most bookies have their HQ's in Gib and their staff lives mainly across the border in Spain., this is going to be even more fun.

Gibraltar is tulip out of luck because they don't have 10 MPs to prop up the Tory Scum...

[jamesbrown]

It's one of these things (can't be fecked to source it from Twatter...)

Someone who understands Northern Ireland told me yesterday that the choreography would have to involve a DUP outburst not least for the Taoiseach to tell Irish voters the deal is a good one.

Ex cabinet minister after briefing from No10: “the DUP are absolutely seething and are not going to let this happen. And nor should they.”

My guess, the former. Either that or May is properly stupid.

[jamesbrown]

16:00 Deal off, "May panicked and called Foster from EU following Sky news/MEP leaks", kicked announcement into the long grass (well to next week).

Deal rumour - "Customs Union and Single Market For NI" Proposal

No thanks - we 'aint aving that
DUP Foster - "we will not accept any form of regulatory divergence"

Yes please - we'll also have some of that
Nicola Sturgeon - "demands Scotland gets same Brexit single market deal as Northern Ireland"
Sadiq Khan - "If Northern Ireland stays in single market, why can't London?"
Wales - also due to announce

If this 'Ireland unification light by the back door' is approved there'll almost certainly be an immediate Brexiteer lead PM challenge.

I wouldn't read too much into this either. Peston et al. get over-excited because it's their job to do so, but they're frequently wrong. There will be a lot of crap for show on both sides...but the EU is fundamentally better at this game.

My best guess is that they will find some form of words, today, that fudges the issue suitably, mainly because it's in everyone's interests that they defer the real decision point w/r to regulatory divergence; at that point, there's real danger for May. It's best to maintain the utmost pressure for those monumental decisions. Today isn't that point. Fudge coming before 14 December IMHO...

[Eirikur]

What about the Gibraltar border?

More important then the Ireland border will be the border with Gibraltar, where 95% of the population voted to remain.
Currently there is a border with checks, but before that there was just a fence, people had to travel to Africa first and then come back by boat. Most bookies have their HQ's in Gib and their staff lives mainly across the border in Spain., this is going to be even more fun.

[jamesbrown]

Sounds very one sided to me (and Nige)

See my comment on mouth frothing "ultras" from both sides

[SunnyInHades]

16:00 Deal off, "May panicked and called Foster from EU following Sky news/MEP leaks", kicked announcement into the long grass (well to next week).

Deal rumour - "Customs Union and Single Market For NI" Proposal

No thanks - we 'aint aving that
DUP Foster - "we will not accept any form of regulatory divergence"

Yes please - we'll also have some of that
Nicola Sturgeon - "demands Scotland gets same Brexit single market deal as Northern Ireland"
Sadiq Khan - "If Northern Ireland stays in single market, why can't London?"
Wales - also due to announce

If this 'Ireland unification light by the back door' is approved there'll almost certainly be an immediate Brexiteer lead PM challenge.