Settlement Opportunity

[cojak]

The Government have probably put in enough new measures now to curtail the use of schemes going forward but that still leaves an enormous legacy case load to deal with.

You think?
http://forums.contractoruk.com/umbre...9-up-90-a.html

[DonkeyRhubarb]

You think?
http://forums.contractoruk.com/umbre...9-up-90-a.html

Well it will be very thin pickings for any promoters if they can only rely on certified idiots signing up.

The days of corporate yachts, Bentleys and caribbean holiday homes are long gone.

[cojak]

That's true enough

[DonkeyRhubarb]

Schemes are dead, or at least on their last legs, going forward.

Yes there'll be a few promoters, and dumb punters, who still persist but I doubt the economics will stack up.

The issue for HMRC will be dealing with the monumental legacy backlog which must be in excess of 100,000 cases by now. Probably up to a half of these will be contractors.

[dangerouswhensober]

What will happen - an Xmas Eve guessing game anyone can play

As it Xmas Eve, and not a creature is stirring (not even a mouse) in our offices, here's my uneducated guess on the forthcoming admin burden on HMRC - IF the current situation persists.

According to several posts on these boards (and also to their own figures), HMRC will be chasing around 40,000+ contractors and 10,000+ companies who were engaged in EBT schemes. These can be spilt (conceptually) into three groups:

(a) Those who have already settled, or will settle before receiving APN, and
(b) Those who will settle after receiving APN (either with or without extended payment terms), and
(c) Those who won't/can't settle, even with extended payment terms.

Assuming that these three groups fall into a 'normal' distribution, with the highest number in the middle group and lower numbers on the tails either side, then my guess (at this Xmas party game) is:

(a) 10,000
(b) 30,000
(c) 10,000+

So I suggest that HMRC face chasing at least 10,000 individuals and companies through the courts.

(BTW - The current on-line poll on these boards suggests that fully 66% will be in group (c) - so my figure of 10,000 could be a big under-estimate).

I don't believe for one minute that this is a tenable situation for HMRC. Quite apart from the admin work required to pursue legal debt recovery cases, some very serious questions will be asked in very high places if HMRC start prosecuting large numbers of the public - regardless of Government and HMRC rhetoric about being 'fair to other taxpayers'.

(Remember the NTRT campaign - eventually 18 MPs asked questions in the House Of Commons - and I believe there may be more people affected in total by EBTs than Section 58 of 2008 Finance Act).

So I further suggest that something big will happen to change/mitigate our situation in the New Year. This could be one or more of the following:

(1) The FN/APN legislation will be challenged by JR and repealed
(2) One or more (big-volume) EBT tax cases will reach the Supreme Court and be judged fully tax compliant
(3) To obtain even a fraction of their predicted revenues, HMRC will be forced to offer significant 'tax forgiveness' deals (i.e. reducing individual assessments by very significant percentages - 50% or greater).
(4) The current political instigators of this persecution (Osborne & Gauke) and their prime puppet (Homer) will be either removed or disempowered
(5) The failure and incompetency at the top of HMRC (not the worker ants at the bottom) will be publically highlighted - those responsible will be made to suffer, and the whole institution will be reorganised.

I know it's easier to say than to do, but I entreat you all not to lose any sleep about what will happen in the New Year - it won't be half as bad as HMRC would currently have you believe. (In the words of several other posters, HMRC really specialise in spreading FUD, FUD and FUD).

Hope you all have a Merry Xmas.

p.s. For avoidence of doubt, I am in group (c) - in common many readers on here, I suspect.

[DonkeyRhubarb]

So far, HMRC have only issued APNs to wealthier individuals who participated in one-off type investment schemes. Virtually everyone paid up within the 90 days.

It won't be like that when they turn to contractors.

[LadyPenelope]

Certainly the fact that they have extended the settlement time period supports the above two comments and suggests that fewer people have settled than they expected and they've got a bit of a mess on their hands.

[StrengthInNumbers]

Settlement Opportunity

Trouble is yet to come on their hands. A strong film scheme case in FTT was heard in Nov and decision should come in 1st half 15, JR starting and first IoM EBT contractor case should get a hearing date decided as well. I think film scheme will win and EBT will also win - if not in lower courts but certainly in higher courts.

[frodo]

ASIOM trustees

Does anyone know who the trustees are/were for ASIOM? I believe it used to be Walbrook who I think are now owned by Barclays. Can anyone confirm? I have also posted this on ASIOM thread.

[foobar]

As it Xmas Eve, and not a creature is stirring (not even a mouse) in our offices, here's my uneducated guess on the forthcoming admin burden on HMRC - IF the current situation persists.

According to several posts on these boards (and also to their own figures), HMRC will be chasing around 40,000+ contractors and 10,000+ companies who were engaged in EBT schemes. These can be spilt (conceptually) into three groups:

(a) Those who have already settled, or will settle before receiving APN, and
(b) Those who will settle after receiving APN (either with or without extended payment terms), and
(c) Those who won't/can't settle, even with extended payment terms.

Assuming that these three groups fall into a 'normal' distribution, with the highest number in the middle group and lower numbers on the tails either side, then my guess (at this Xmas party game) is:

(a) 10,000
(b) 30,000
(c) 10,000+

So I suggest that HMRC face chasing at least 10,000 individuals and companies through the courts.

(BTW - The current on-line poll on these boards suggests that fully 66% will be in group (c) - so my figure of 10,000 could be a big under-estimate).

I don't believe for one minute that this is a tenable situation for HMRC. Quite apart from the admin work required to pursue legal debt recovery cases, some very serious questions will be asked in very high places if HMRC start prosecuting large numbers of the public - regardless of Government and HMRC rhetoric about being 'fair to other taxpayers'.

(Remember the NTRT campaign - eventually 18 MPs asked questions in the House Of Commons - and I believe there may be more people affected in total by EBTs than Section 58 of 2008 Finance Act).

So I further suggest that something big will happen to change/mitigate our situation in the New Year. This could be one or more of the following:

(1) The FN/APN legislation will be challenged by JR and repealed
(2) One or more (big-volume) EBT tax cases will reach the Supreme Court and be judged fully tax compliant
(3) To obtain even a fraction of their predicted revenues, HMRC will be forced to offer significant 'tax forgiveness' deals (i.e. reducing individual assessments by very significant percentages - 50% or greater).
(4) The current political instigators of this persecution (Osborne & Gauke) and their prime puppet (Homer) will be either removed or disempowered
(5) The failure and incompetency at the top of HMRC (not the worker ants at the bottom) will be publically highlighted - those responsible will be made to suffer, and the whole institution will be reorganised.

I know it's easier to say than to do, but I entreat you all not to lose any sleep about what will happen in the New Year - it won't be half as bad as HMRC would currently have you believe. (In the words of several other posters, HMRC really specialise in spreading FUD, FUD and FUD).

Hope you all have a Merry Xmas.

p.s. For avoidence of doubt, I am in group (c) - in common many readers on here, I suspect.

Well thought out post. Thank-you.