UK leaves EU?

[Mich the Tester]

Do you have any Scottish ancestry? The SNP are very keen on remaining part of the EU should they get independence so you'd probably be able to remain European if you become Scottish. You might even be able to get dual Scottish/Whatever the rest of the UK winds up being called nationality.

Yes, my granny was Scottish, but I don't think they're going to vote for independence anyway.

[xoggoth]

Back to EU migration in general, I suspect Romanian/Bulgarian entry to the UK will be quite low for the simple reason that most people want to go where there are already substantial numbers of their own kind and some other countries like Italy already have more significant Romanian populations.

[Mich the Tester]

I've also been looking at it here and contemplating it as I know of a number of other Brits who have. For me its really rather simple as I've been here so many years. I still keep my British citizenship, and passport, but also get German citizenship and a passport, basically dual nationality. I just have to pop along to an 'Amt', show my credentials, pay some money, possibly do a test and Hans is your Unkle! A probably even easier (although I can't see how easier it is) would be to marry Frau D.!

Well if Britain goes ahead and leaves, it'll certainly provide some interesting study material for demographers. How many British people in the EU would return to the UK, including some younger ones who've never even been there? How many British people married to or otherwise related to other EU citizens would leave? How many will scramble for dual citizenship? How many will relinquish British citizenship only to use their right to request in back?

None of this should be cause for panic, but it will be interesting to watch. Then there's the question of how internationally oriented businesses react, but that's maybe more of a question for the economic geographers (not my field).

[Mich the Tester]

Back to EU migration in general, I suspect Romanian/Bulgarian entry to the UK will be quite low for the simple reason that most people want to go where there are already substantial numbers of their own kind and some other countries like Italy already have more significant Romanian populations.

I agree; I think Romanians are more likely to join family or friends in Germany or Italy (where the language barrier is low), and Bulgarians will go where there's work and a network of people to help them along (Germany). There will probably also be significant migration within the 'new EU' as labour shortages in the richer new countries (Poland, the Baltic states, Czech Republic) attract labour from the poorer new EU countries. There will possibly be a lot of circular migration, after all, if you can earn enough in 6 months in northern Europe to spend the rest of the year with family in sunny southern Europe, would you move permanently to a rainy, grey, cold place where few people really accept you as their equal?

[Old Greg]

I agree; I think Romanians are more likely to join family or friends in Germany or Italy (where the language barrier is low), and Bulgarians will go where there's work and a network of people to help them along (Germany). There will probably also be significant migration within the 'new EU' as labour shortages in the richer new countries (Poland, the Baltic states, Czech Republic) attract labour from the poorer new EU countries. There will possibly be a lot of circular migration, after all, if you can earn enough in 6 months in northern Europe to spend the rest of the year with family in sunny southern Europe, would you move permanently to a rainy, grey, cold place where few people really accept you as their equal?

The other thing that may happen is that they are prepared to accept even more exploitative conditions than other East European workers. Why would a fruit farmer pay minimum wage and deduct £x per week for living in an overcrowded caravan when they can pay minimum wage and deduct £x+10 per week?

[Mich the Tester]

The other thing that may happen is that they are prepared to accept even more exploitative conditions than other East European workers. Why would a fruit farmer pay minimum wage when most consumers (and of course the supermarkets) are only prepared to pay a pittance for it?

ftfy

[Old Greg]

ftfy

I thought you were a Tory. It's simple market forces. It may be that if true labour costs were any higher, UK labour intensive agriculture would be unable to compete with Netherlands / Spanish / Moroccan producers. Whether or not that is the case, a producer will look to reduce labour costs where possible and an additional supply of seasonal labour may do just that.

[Mich the Tester]

I thought you were a Tory.

I thought I was until some 'tories' turned into market fundamentalists. In fact I think I still am as I basically believe in free markets with a qualification; freedom's great but has to be accompanied with morality and responsibility; that's the bit of Adam Smith's philosophy and indeed most serious conservatism that most people haven't bothered to read. The trouble is here that many people nominally support free international markets for their (often subsidized) cheap food or the building work they need done for them, but don't support international free competition for their own job. The right has lost its traditional enemy (the Soviet bloc) that kept it fighting for concepts like personal liberty and economic freedom, and since then has become more and more confused about both.

Plus, the battle against of ideals against government run monopolies instead of private enterprise has largely been won, but then went on to become an idealistic thing instead of practical economic policy. For example; was it really such a great idea to privatise the railways, given that they're costing the taxpayer more than ever? Maybe it seemed a good idea at the time, but maybe it's time to re-examine that with a practical mindset.

[Old Greg]

I thought I was until some 'tories' turned into market fundamentalists. In fact I think I still am as I basically believe in free markets with a qualification; freedom's great but has to be accompanied with morality and responsibility; that's the bit of Adam Smith's philosophy and indeed most serious conservatism that most people haven't bothered to read. The trouble is here that many people nominally support free international markets for their (often subsidized) cheap food or the building work they need done for them, but don't support international free competition for their own job. The right has lost its traditional enemy (the Soviet bloc) that kept it fighting for concepts like personal liberty and economic freedom, and since then has become more and more confused about both.

Plus, the battle against of ideals against government run monopolies instead of private enterprise has largely been won, but then went on to become an idealistic thing instead of practical economic policy. For example; was it really such a great idea to privatise the railways, given that they're costing the taxpayer more than ever? Maybe it seemed a good idea at the time, but maybe it's time to re-examine that with a practical mindset.

You belong in the age of Supermac, my friend.

[Mich the Tester]

You belong in the age of Supermac, my friend.

I know.